Tony Calvin: Houblon Des Obeaux looks well-priced for Warwick's Classic Chase

One of the BHA's key handicapping tenets is to favour the majority over the minority, so I expect the person responsible for allowing Houblon Des Obeaux to run off a mark of 146 in Warwick's Classic Chase to be hauled in for questioning on Monday morning after the horse has bolted up.

Back him at 15.014/1.

I know the official handicappers are allowed to play pretty fast and loose with the figures these days - we see that on a regular basis with Irish horses running in this country - but quite how Houblon Des Obeaux has been dropped 13lb for his three runs this season takes some explaining, irrespective of whether or not he wins on Saturday.

There is clearly no denying that he has been well below par of late, and deserved to be eased in the weights accordingly, but other trainers must be looking at the lenient handicapping handed down to the selection and be feeling more than a touch envious, if not downright angry.

Compare his treatment to that of Black Thunder in this race. His last three outings has seen him beaten 19 lengths and 21 lengths and he was struggling when unseating his rider in the Welsh National on Saturday. Quite a similar profile to Houblon Des Obeaux, yet there are no double-digit drops for him (unless the handicapper has dropped him 7lb for that Chepstow run, when the re-assessed ratings are published later this morning).

Whatever the rights or wrong of the situation, there is no doubt that Houblon Des Obeaux has been given a massive chance at the weights, and the heavy-ground winner is likely to get his optimum conditions on Saturday.

Well, optimum may be pushing it, as he has never won beyond 3m and he is unproven over 3m5f, as he unseated at the first in the bet365 Gold Cup and fell in the Scottish National on his only attempts at this sort of trip.

But arguably his best effort came when runner-up to Many Clouds in a soft-ground Hennessy 14 months ago, and hopefully the slower pace of this race will improve his suspect jumping, which has let him down again this season. And he has always shaped as if a marathon trip in deep ground would suit him.

And if he gets his act together in the jumping department - and that is his Achilles heel - then he is a winner to waiting to happen.

Let us not forget that he went off an 8-1 chance for the Hennessy two starts ago, yet is now available in a much weaker race off a 10lb lower mark at nearly double the price. Go figure.

And if you go back further in the formbook - and I am not talking the dim and distant past either - then he is remarkably well-treated.

He is 11lb lower than when second in the Hennessy in 2014, and after that superb effort he chased home The Young Master off a 4lb higher mark at Ascot and then finished a seven-length second to a certain Coneygree, giving him 1lb, in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury.

He was rated 162 then, but less than a year later he finds himself off a mark for a 146 for a stable that tends to know the time of day in soft-ground staying chases, and won this race with Rigadin De Beauchene in 2013, who is also entered in here along with fellow stablemate Ballyoliver (who incidentally has only come down 7lb despite running very poorly in five of his last six starts).

Of course, Houblon Des Obeaux may have gone at the game, and he may well again jump so poorly that he wouldn't be winning this off 126, let alone 146.

Anyway, hopefully he takes up his entry and we get a run for our money. I'll be straight with you. I am just assuming that he is an intended runner, but he has ideal conditions and he doesn't have any other weekend options, so I'll be disappointed, and much the poorer, if he doesn't.

If he does run, then we will be on the best-handicapped horse in the race and one from a stable that continues in decent form, as evidenced by the big-race victories of Yala Enki and Otago Trail last Saturday.


Recommended Bet

Back Houblon Des Obeaux at 15.014/1 in Saturday's Classic Chase at Warwick