Differing selections in the King George would usually be a minor player in the Christmas Arguments Stakes, though you fancy this renewal, so open as it is, might push it up the order. Perhaps even a podium finish, behind undisputed champ Monopoly and for-the-love-of-Christ-don't-put-Mrs-Brown's-Boys-on, would be realistic.
There are cases to be made for at least half a dozen of the likely runners and process of elimination won't get us very far. Indeed, it would only really rule out Champagne Fever and even that's overwhelmingly on the basis of price. He's undoubtedly exciting and could well win, though he hasn't achieved enough to be 4.47/2 to do so in such exalted company.
Champagne Fever, with only a 'p' beside his figure to bridge the gap, has very nearly a stone to find with top-rated Silviniaco Conti. If you're looking for the likeliest winner, the defending champion is surely the answer. Only Cue Card probably has the capacity to beat him when he's on top form and, as the 2013 renewal showed, even that isn't for sure. After a much better showing in the Betfair Chase to last year, you can't doubt Silviniaco Conti's wellbeing as he bids for a second King George.
The next tier is a lot more congested. Odds between 8.27/1 and 11.521/2 cover Al Ferof, Menorah, Dynaste and Cue Card. Simonsig had been among them, too, until he was ruled out a little over a week prior to the race.
Cue Card must prove that he retains all of his ability after a couple of below-form runs this winter. There are plausible excuses for each, unfit at Exeter and uncharacteristically let down by his jumping at Haydock. He's no 10.519/2 chance on ability, as last year's second to Silviniaco Conti shows.
Cue Card will surely influence this year's King George, even if it's only from a pace angle. He and Champagne Fever are both established front runners and, in the admittedly fairly unlikely event that Road To Riches also lines up, we'd have a scenario that would play into the hands of Dynaste, Menorah and, to a lesser extent, Al Ferof.
Those last three appear to be the ones to focus on, being particularly attractive at their respective prices. A well-run three miles at a sharp track could be especially suitable for Dynaste and Menorah. The second-named has been a revelation this season and there still seems to be some residual scepticism factored into his price. If you'd only seen the Betfair Chase, you certainly wouldn't have put him in at 10.519/2 with Silviniaco Conti 3.6553/20, as a couple of firms have. Menorah's is an attractive each-way price. If we're looking for a win bet, however, slight preference would be for Al Ferof.
The King George feels like destiny delayed for Al Ferof. He was pencilled in for the race immediately after his win in 2012 Paddy Power from a very high mark, but missed the rest of the season through injury and never really got going in 2013/4, his only success in a renewal of the Amlin Chase that wound up as a match.
You can excuse the rest of Al Ferof's campaign last season on one aspect or another (chiefly grade-four ulcers according to owner John Hales) and it was hardly a disaster in any case- he was a well-held third in the King George, for instance.
At the time, you wouldn't have taken Al Ferof's win in this year's Amlin Chase as inarguable proof that he's back to his best. He was impressive, but only in beating old-timers Somersby and Wishfull Thinking. Now that they are Tingle Creek runner-up Somersby and Peterborough Chase winner Wishfull Thinking, a reassessment is called for. In fact, it means that Al Ferof comes into this King George on the back of a career-best effort, just as he would have had he made it here in 2012.
The question we need to deal with regarding Al Ferof is stamina. He's always appealed as a horse that will stay, perhaps even by suited by three miles though last season's evidence flies against that. Consider his aforementioned problems, though, and the near-unraceable ground the Denman Chase was run on in February and we have sufficient excuse to at least give him another chance. This race has, after all, long since seemed to be the big one he's tailor-made for.
This year's King George promises to be the race of the season so far. It's one to savour, not to fight over. Friends and family might have gone for any one of six and have a realistic chance of winning. Take our advice and you'll merely be on another one: Al Ferof if you're all in, or even Menorah each-way if you'd welcome any sort of return after Christmas's extravagance. With any luck the race will settle all disputes. And if not then there's always Monopoly.
Recommended bet:
1pt win Al Ferof @ 8.27/1 & 0.5pt each-way Menorah @ 10.519/2 in the King George
