If you want to back a winner on British Champions Day then Occam's razor, with its belief that the simplest answer is usually the correct one, might be the way to go.
The front end of the market looks solid in a number of races this weekend and with the ground unseasonably good, focusing on obvious form plays seems sensible. I can certainly see myself backing a few of the fancied horses on Saturday morning when the inevitable drift on headline horses materialises.
Chief among those is Limato in the Sprint who is difficult to beat over six and seven furlongs these days; Mecca's Angel might have marginally better form but this trip could stretch her and she is coming off a bad run.
Order Of St George really should be shorter than 2.01/1 in the Long Distance Cup with his Arc third close to a career-best while Almanzor might prove himself the world-beater he looked at Leopardstown in the Champion Stakes.
Aidan O'Brien will be hoping to cap an excellent UK season with winners here in his bid to beat Bobby Frankel's record of 25 Group 1 wins worldwide in a calendar year; British Champions Day, however, has not been kind to him with his last winner Excelebration in the 2012 QEII. This has been an annus mirabilis though - from the unusually hot start back in spring right through to sweeping the board in the Arc, neither of which would be typical of the trainer - and he could well defy recent history this weekend.
Minding is a key horse and O'Brien's comments that "whenever we know what way the lads are going to go with Minding then the others will slot into different other places" are informative; it suggests that other good fillies like Found and Seventh Heaven are having their races planned around her. It could be argued that her run in the Irish Champion Stakes found her out against the colts but I take an opposite view; it looked at excellent effort in the circumstances.
Not only was she coming off a break, but she met some trouble up the rail and raced on the worst of the ground with the races on the outer track seemingly decided by a track bias towards the wide runners. It appears connections are leaning towards running her in the QEII and she'd be my idea of the winner there; Ribchester and Galileo Gold aren't Almanzor and she would bring some of the best form to the table.
Zhukova has been my long-term fancy for the Fillies & Mares, her form working out all season long and those efforts substantiated by the clock. Unlike O'Brien, Dermot Weld has thrived at this meeting and she is a massive player though looks well found by the market. A drift on the day would make her a bet but at the current prices Journey looks the play.
Runner-up in the race last season, she has been trained with this race in mind for all of 2016 and I could see her going off shorter than her current 9.417/2 on the day. Seventh Heaven obviously brings good form to the table but might need fast ground to show her best and could wait for the Breeders' Cup in any case.
Recommended Bets
Back Minding in whatever race she nuns in
Back Journey at 9.417/2 for the Fillies and Mares