Racing fans, you are in for an absolute treat. The 2012 King George has the hallmark of a contest which will live long in the memory, with a cast of performers among the highest calibre assembled in recent times. Danedream, Nathaniel, and St Nicholas Abbey all boast Timeform master ratings equal to or above the hallowed 130 threshold, a level which distinguishes a high-class performer from above average Group 1 victor, whilst Sea Moon, having run to a rating of 128 twice in his career when landing to Group 2s, is a winner at the highest level in all but name.
Aside from the glow cast by the main protagonists, an ensemble led by Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden, St Leger champion Masked Marvel and Japanese Derby hero Deep Brillante adds further to the troupe, whilst Reliable Man and Shareta look to bring added Gallic flair to the stage.
You have to delve back to 1997, the year in which Swain took the first of his brace of King George's, to come across a field in which a trio of contestants bragged pre-race Timeform ratings of 130 or higher. There have been some magnificent individual performances since, those produced by Daylami in 1999, Montjeu in 2000 and Harbinger in 2010 immediately springing to mind, but not since that day in 1997 has a field assembled with such strength in depth.
How do you separate a field, come to one conclusion and single out one bet in a race with a number of horses as closely knit as we find ourselves faced with here? Regrettably, my box of pins has run out, and closing my eyes and stabbing one on the racecard at random strikes as being something of a cop out, so let's engage reverse and draw a line through those that seem unlikely to cross the winning line first.
High on that list would be the Aidan O'Brien-trained pair Robin Hood and Windsor Palace, that duo set to carry out pacemaking duties for stablemate St Nicholas Abbey. A harsh and destructive pen is also going to discard Brown Panther, who looks to be flying too high here despite getting back on track with a listed success at Pontefract on his latest start.
Japanese representative Deep Brillante is a fascinating contender, narrowly successful in the Japanese Derby on his most recent start. Connections have valid reasons for travelling to Britain, as if the three-year-old lands this prize and goes on to win the Japan Cup in November, they would net a bonus of approximately £660,000. However, Deep Brillante has demonstrated a tendency to pull on his last couple of starts, which would raise doubts about his stamina for the stiff mile and a half at Ascot, and it should also be noted that three-year-olds in Japan traditionally do not take on the older horses until the autumn. Fascinating he may be, but the most likely winner he is not.
Shareta and Masked Marvel are next in the firing line, the former a smart performer who has returned in 2012 with three decent efforts, culminating in a second placed finish to Meandre in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last month. She is a solid and consistent filly, but it is difficult to imagine her being good enough to trouble the principals in a contest such as this.
Masked Marvel, winner of the final British classic of last season, is another name that has to be added to the discarded pile. His performance at Doncaster was one of the best recorded in that event in recent times, but he has yet to back that up. Admittedly his effort in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe can be forgiven, unlikely to have fully recovered from his South Yorkshire exertions, and it is likely that he needed the run on his 2012 return at Newmarket. The four-year-old returned to form in the Coronation Cup on Derby day back on firmer ground, finishing third to St Nicholas Abbey, but a scenario in which he turns the tables with that rival seems unlikely to materialise.
The crosshairs now turn on Dunaden, a six-year-old trained by Mikel Delzangles. It is impossible to crab his consistency, having run to a Timeform rating between 119 and 124 on each of his last six starts, which includes triumphs in the Melbourne Cup and Hong Kong Vase, alongside a second-placed finish to Sea Moon in the Hardwicke Stakes on his latest start. Once more, we are faced with a tough and consistent performer highly likely to run a solid race, but has to be discounted for win purposes.
Having machine-gunned the field up to this point, only five now remain. This is where it gets interesting, as Reliable Man would, in any other race, make plenty of appeal as a win and place bet at odds of 28.027/1 and 4.57/2 respectively. Winner of last year's French Derby, Reliable Man has not really gone on to hit the heights some were expecting, a win in the Group 2 Prix Niel all he has to show for his efforts since. His most recent start, when a staying on fourth to So You Think (equipped with a first-time tongue tie) in the Prince of Wales's Stakes, proved that he retains all of his ability and making him of definite interest for a race of this ilk. However, whether he can bridge the gap between himself and the quartet at the head of the ratings is up for debate and, with it being difficult to pick holes in his main rivals, he cannot be put up as a realistic place bet either.
Right, decision time. There is no point eulogising about each individuals achievements, as they have triumphed in some of Europe's biggest races and their form is there for all to see. A nagging doubt, somewhere in the back of my mind, as to how solid Danedream really is enough to count her out, as, if you take away her win in the small-field, soft-ground Grosser Preis Von Baden, her Arc triumph is a massive standout performance on her CV.
Sea Moon is lightly raced and has the potential to improve further yet, but he has not recorded a performance quite at the same level as his two remaining rivals, so it boils down to St Nicholas Abbey and Nathaniel. The latter is going to be tough to beat, his Eclipse win, on seasonal debut, his best performance yet and with the lingering promise of more yet to come, but St Nicholas Abbey has always been one that induces anticipation and excitement, his emphatic success in the Coronation Cup further adding to that, and he is the one that gets the most tentative of votes.
Recommendation
Back St Nicholas Abbey @ 4.3100/30 in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes
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