At the time of writing on Tuesday morning, Chepstow is described as "just about raceable", so you have to fear whether Saturday's Welsh National will go ahead.
The course are making mildly optimistic noises about the rescheduled fixture taking place - and everyone hopes it does, obviously - but the two forecasts I have seen today don't look promising at all. One has rain on each day this week at Chepstow, and comments on Twitter this morning from locals don't fill you with too much hope.
Now, weather-forecasting wouldn't be the most accurate of professions, as we all know, but it could be worth waiting until the weekend before getting involved in the race, anyway.
There are currently 18 horses priced up at 20-1 or below, even at the best industry prices, and each-way betting is currently ¼ the odds 1,2,3,4.
We all know how competitive the Saturday morning markets are these days, and it wouldn't surprise me if a fair degree of those 18 horses drifted in the betting, and firms like the Betfair Sportsbook have also been known to offer five places in high-profile handicaps like this come the weekend.
As it stands, I think Midnight Prayer is the right favourite at 9.417/2 on the exchange. In short, he looks the ideal candidate for this war of attrition.
He is a heavy-ground winner, who is well suited by a marathon trip, having won the four-miler at the Cheltenham Festival two years ago. He ran an excellent trial for this race when fourth over an inadequate trip at Newbury at the end of November, and looks a very well-handicapped horse on his 2013-14 exploits off a mark of just 135.
But I am happy to keep my powder dry on the race until Friday, when hopefully the meeting will still be on.
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There should be no such worries for Kempton on Saturday, where the Lanzarote Hurdle certainly does interest me as a betting medium, even if you can make a case for a lot of the 20-runners. And we will take a spin through some of those before getting to my 40-1 each-way selection.
Ibis Du Rheu heads the market alongside Unowhatimeanharry at around the 6-1 mark, and that looks correct. The former is a half-brother to Saphir Du Rheu, who won this race in 2014, and whose Newbury second is working out well, while the latter is obviously much improved since joining Harry Fry and may not have stopped progressing yet.
Others that I can see running well include Betfair Fixed Brush Hurdle disappointment Yala Enki and Un Ace, but the other at the top end of the market that nearly lured in me was Westren Warrior at 12.011/1.
His Southwell second to Singlefarmpayment at Southwell has clearly worked out well and he sluiced up in heavy ground at Lingfield last time, and both of those performances make him of obvious interest off a mark of just 127. And odds of 12.011/1 look very fair.
I would imagine that Kempton is his number one weekend target, but I don't like it when horses have alternative entries, and it is not out of the realms of possibility that connections could decide to go for the easier 15k race at Wincanton on Saturday instead. So I will give him a swerve.
No, the horse that I like at the prices is Little Boy Boru each-way at 40-1 with Betfair Sportsbook. I am keen to play win and place here, as it isn't a big price there will be 15 runners or less come the off on Saturday afternoon.
Now, he is clearly far more exposed than many of these, but he is no 40-1 poke in my book.
For starters, 2m5f on testing ground are his ideal conditions, and I imagine (hopefully, anyway) connections have had this race in the back of their mind for a while, following his excellent second to Tea For Two in this contest last year, when he raced from 6lb of the handicap.
Okay, the winner won by clear daylight, but we know how good that horse is going right-handed and at his best, and hopefully the selection will get to race off a 7lb lower mark than last season. A light weight suits him best apparently - according to connections, at least - as he is not the biggest.
I said "hopefully" above, as if Brother Tedd runs (he is rated 153, with the next highest-rated in here Theinval on 151, then down to horses 145 and lower), then Little Boy Boru will have to race from 5lb out of the handicap.
But we go in with our eyes wide open and the price factors that possibility in. And I take a fair bit of encouragement from two of his three runs this season.
The most obvious positive run in this campaign was his fourth on his reappearance at Sandown, before he fell at Uttoxeter next time. However, a closer inspection of his 8th of 10 in a hot Pertemps qualifier at Wincanton last time revealed quite a promising performance.
He travelled well throughout much of the race, and his rider never really got overly-serious with him, perhaps mindful of giving the horse a confidence-booster given his earlier fall. It wasn't an "easy" by any stretch of the imagination, but I took a positive view of the manner in which he saw his race out after the last .
He is best when coming off a strong pace in testing conditions, which looks assured with the likes of Baron Alco in the line-up, and here is hoping that he can arrive on the scene late and pick up some handy place money at the very least.
And I'd be very happy if either 5lb claimer Harry Bannister or David Noonan took the ride again, as neither would be putting up overweight at 9st 9lb, if needs be.
Recommended Bet
Back Little Boy Boru at 40-1 each way with the Betfair Sportsbook