Plenty of heat in Lanzarote Hurdle betting
Ben Pauling is having a season to forget with his chasers - the absence of Barters Hill, just two winners from 38 runners going into Tuesday's racing, and a slipped-saddle costing him dear with Cyrius Moriviere at Doncaster on Monday - but he is hitting an impressive 25% elsewhere and he could hold the key to the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday.
The early betting suggests Pauling's best chance of a winner in the £40k contest is clearly Lingfield winner Jaleo - more of him shortly, and his regular 7lb claimer Alex Ferguson is already jocked up - but the most interesting horse in the race is arguably his Local Show.
Now, I am not even sure if he is an intended runner but he doesn't have any other entries as I write and a mark of 139 back over hurdles gives him chances.
He would have been even more enticing if the handicapper had left him on his hurdles mark of 125 from a couple of years ago, but that would have been a touch too generous.
There are other obvious negatives, too. He hasn't raced over hurdles for nearly two years and he may find 2m5f in this discipline an inadequate test for him on every level. And this could just be a confidence-booster after he failed to fire as a 25/1 shot in the Hennessy at the end of November.
But there would be plenty of races his trainer could target if he was going for just a spin round and the fact he is entered in here suggests they could mean business.
If they do, they have a horse who is rated 5lb higher over fences courtesy of a course win over Onenightinvienna (sadly no longer with us after going wrong in the Welsh National) here last January, and a forecast that includes rain and frost in the next few days that could turn the ground very testing, just how he likes it.
He would undoubtedly want further than this 2m5f but if this front-runner gets into a rhythm on the lead then he could be hard to peg back off this mark.
Stablemate Jaleo was ridden far more conservatively when winning over an extended 2m3f at Lingfield last time and a look at the video suggests he did well to pick up the second, so he was value for more than the three-quarter length that he won there.
The handicapper thinks so too, putting him up a harsh-looking 7lb on the bare form, but this is just his sixth start over hurdles - and his second for his new trainer - and he is only 3lb higher than when he started as the 6/1 favourite for his previous handler John Ferguson in the Fred Winter on his penultimate outing.
Of the pair I would just probably favour Local Show at 20/1+ - Jaleo has already been well found in the market, albeit to small stakes, from 16.015/1 to as low as 9.08/1 on the Exchange - but I can keep my powder dry at the moment. I don't even know if Kempton is the plan at the moment and I think he will probably be a similar price on the day. The same probably applies to most of the others as well.
And there are plenty of other very feasible contenders in the race, too.
Sam Red has his first start for Dan Skelton (brother Harry is jocked up), and there has already been a few nibbles in the market for Nicky Henderson's Protek Des Flos coming back to hurdles after not appearing to enjoy his chasing debut at Newbury one bit. Henderson also has the lightly-raced Fakenham winner Argante in here.
Little Boy Boru is far more exposed but ran well when a close second at Haydock last time and has performed creditably in the last two runnings of this race, but a key contest here could be the course and distance handicap won by Doesyourdogbite on Boxing Day, in which Dell 'Arca and Lisheen Prince were third and fourth, on good ground.
The winner looked an unlikely winner before picking up very strongly after the last to beat a well-treated runner-up by a convincing two lengths, and a 6lb rise looks very fair.
But Lisheen Prince will have his supporters to reverse the form and Dell' Arca travelled like the best-handicapped horse in that race for a long way and he is 3lb better off with the winner for three lengths.
In fact, he traded 1.071/14 in-running on the Exchange there and had he met the last fluently he would have finished a fair bit closer.
You would imagine that they will look to play him later at the weekend, but he isn't the most consistent and soft ground would arguably be a negative for him, for all that he finished runner-up in a heavy-ground Betfair Hurdle. That's what his runs of late suggest, anyway.
It's a tricky race to call, though - as the Sportsbook's 7/1 the field suggests - and I am not playing at the moment. But Dell 'Arca is available at 25/1 in the marketplace, and he would be very backable at 20/1+ on good ground come the weekend. But we will revisit this race on Friday.
Thoughts on Warwick...
Like everyone else I suspect, I have been waiting for Viva Steve to come out again after he won on his stable debut for Fergal O'Brien at Ayr in early November, and it looks like we may finally see him again in Warwick's Classic Chase on Saturday.
If the course beats the expected freezing temperatures on Friday night, that is.
There has already been some money for him in the marketplace, which is easy to understand. He has gone up 7lb but connections were very keen on his chances in the Welsh National before he got balloted out, so presumably they think this 3m5f trip will suit him.
He has to be a player but there are 34 horses in here and this is a race we can afford to leave alone at the current prices. Doctor Harper and Houblon Des Obeaux are his main market rivals at the moment and you can easily see the case for them.
The Exchange has also put up the Grade 2 novices' hurdle on the Warwick card. The market will take a while to warm up as running plans filter through, but it will be no surprise if we see Ballyhill line up as the return to 2m5f should really suit him.
I'll be back here with Saturday tips on Friday afternoon at 17:00.