Still Sweet on this Selection for the Cesarewitch
Anyone who has backed ante-post favourite St Michel for the Cesarewitch faces a nervous week as he still needs four to come out after Monday's five-day entries in order to get a run.
I say nervous, but his supporters won't do their money if he misses the cut and is simply balloted out on Thursday morning. However, he is 15lb well-in at the weights after his third at Doncaster last time, and they would certainly rather they had a run for their money than just getting their stakes back.
Sweet Selection is actually 17lb well-in after her much-improved fifth in the same Doncaster race, and she has been my long-term fancy for that race since then.
She was available at 16/1 across the board for a good week or so after that run, but the market has finally cottoned on to her claims, and she is now just 10/1 on the fixed-odds front and 13.012/1 on the Exchange.
I would actually have her as my favourite for the race - she is weighted to beat St Michel on their Doncaster running - but I can't see her price contracting too much between now and Friday.
So we will keep our powder dry on this race - and it would come as no surprise were we to get enhanced place terms at the weekend, too - until nearer the time.
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The Dewhurst also takes place on Saturday and, as ever, definitive running plans are thin on the ground. Fourteen were confirmed at the five-day stage at noon on Monday.
National Stakes winner Churchill would seem a likely runner for Aidan O'Brien, and he is the obvious favourite in a lightly-traded market, but you can't really have an opinion, or bet, as it stands until the make-up of the race becomes clear.
O'Brien has six of the 14, but I'll be interested in his Intelligence Cross and Rivet against the favourite if they line up on Saturday.
Gifted Master has each-way claims in the Challenge Stakes
On the Friday, there are three active ante-post markets on the Exchange, the most high-profile being the Fillies' Mile. There is also the Challenge Stakes and the Old Rowley Cup.
The Betfair Sportsbook have also priced up the Challenge Stakes, and fair play to them as running plans seem up in the air, too, for a lot of these.
Cougar Mountain heads their market at 4/1 after his three-and-a-quarter length defeat of Gifted Master over 1m in a Group 2 here last time but whether or not connections will want to run here under a penalty, or maybe head for a Group 1 instead, maybe the Breeders' Cup Mile where he is likely to get his preferred fast ground, is debatable.
The horse he beat last time could be the each-way bet at 9/1. Gifted Master loves it here - course form figures of 1-2-1-1-1-2 - the step down to 7f won't be any problem for him, and he looks an intended runner to judge from comments last week.
Betfair Ambassador Hugo Palmer name-checked this race as an obvious next target for him in an informative column last week and Jim Crowley is already jocked up.
The 9/1 each-way appears very fair if you want an interest, albeit in what looks a typically tight and trappy Group 2 prize featuring the usual 7f suspects in this grade, but I will stop short of recommending a bet myself.
Where next for star performers at Chantilly and Newmarket?
There were plenty of late-season clues over the weekend, but the big question is whether some of the horses in action will now be turned out at Ascot on October 15 or the Breeders' Cup weekend on Nov 4/5.
Or neither. Or both.
It was a good weekend for Aidan O'Brien, to put it mildly, and Found is one horse that you wouldn't rule out doing the Ascot-Santa Anita double.
She took in both the Champion Stakes and Breeders' Cup Turf last season after running in the Arc - finishing second at Ascot, and then beating Golden Horn in the latter, for which she is now favourite for a repeat win - but for now a watching brief has to be advised after her stunning Arc win on Sunday.
Connections tend to leave running decisions very late until work mornings on the week of the race, and of course they also have plenty of other options for the 1m2f contest - in which Found's Irish Champion Stakes conqueror Almanzor will lie menacingly in wait - notably Minding.
It will be interesting to see where Sun Chariot winner Alice Springs goes next. She wasn't wildly impressive when winning at Newmarket, but her jockey said she was just "dossing" when she hit the front.
She could line up in the QE II Stakes in under a fortnight - or maybe in the States next month - but the one I like for the Ascot 1m race is Lightning Spear, and have done ever since his Goodwood win.
He is a general 12/1 for the race, and 13.012/1 on the Exchange, and I feel he has the potential to put it up to marker-leaders Ribchester and Galileo Gold.
One bookmaker left him at 25/1 after the Goodwood win, but that predictably didn't last long, and I still feel his current price underestimates his chance. His trainer has been repeatedly underlining how well the horse is in recent Twitter updates.
Shalaa made a satisfactory return after his lengthy absence due to a pelvic injury when winning at Ascot and, all being well, he will return to the track to take in the Champions' Sprint for which he trades around the 7.26/1 mark.
Limato was deeply impressive in the Foret and he now has Breeders' Cup options in the Mile and Sprint. And he could even turn out quicker in the Champions' Sprint at Ascot.
And finally, to the US...
The weekend action Stateside also had big ramifications on some Breeders' Cup races, notably the Turf.
Dual Arc runner-up Flintshire was the strong favourite for that race before his five-length second to Ectot in Belmont on Saturday night, but that defeat is easily excused on account of the soft ground.
It sounds like that connections knew he wouldn't be at his best there in those conditions - the formbook told you that, even if he still went off at 1/5 - but they were desperate to get a run into him before Santa Anita.
As mentioned above, he has been usurped for favouritism by Found, but he should be a different animal on quick ground.
California Chrome continued his unbeaten 2016 when making all to beat Dortmund over 1m1f at Santa Anita on Saturday, and he remains the short-priced favourite for the Classic over runaway Travers Stakes winner Arrogate.