There has been no shortage of top-class racing in the past fortnight or so, and as a result there have been moves in a few of the longer-range ante-post markets, not least the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day.
We haven't seen the current favourite Vautour so far this season, but there is no doubt that the ultra-impressive JLT winner deserves to head the market. But, given the ammunition being lined up against him at Kempton, I wouldn't be in a rush to take odds of 3.6553/20. And he does have his stamina to prove.
Don Cossack laid fair claim to being last season's outstanding staying chaser when beating Cue Card by 26 lengths in the Melling Chase, and when following up at Punchestown, and he is already two from two this season.
Silviniaco Conti is seeking a hat-trick in the race and he pleased connections in a pipe-opener over hurdles at Kempton, and stablemates Saphir Du Rheu and classy 2m4f performer Ptit Zig (entered in Paddy Power on Saturday, but more of that later) didn't look too shabby in winning at Carlisle and Down Royal respectively. They give Paul Nicholls a strong hand, once again.
And then you have the Gold Cup winner's Coneygree's exhibition round in a three-runner race at Sandown on Sunday to ponder on, let alone a back-to-form Cue Card's defeat of Dynaste and Ballynagour in the Charlie Hall.
All things considered, you have to think that Vautour is plenty short enough, for all his brilliance - I didn't even mention the Gold Cup-placed Djakadam and Roads To Riches above - and we will get further Kempton clues in the Betfair Chase at Haydock on November 21, and the Hennessy a week later at Newbury.
Silviniaco Conti is the 2.8415/8 favourite for his third win in the race but if you were going to play - and I'll keep my powder dry for the moment - then surely Cue Card at 5.79/2 is the bet at this stage.
Firstly, the third and fourth favourites, Don Cossack and Coneygree, are unlikely runners, and there was every indication that Cue Card was back to his best at Wetherby. And at his best he convincingly beat Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti in this race two seasons ago.
He had a few issues with injuries and his breathing since, but considering he raced far too keenly I thought he did remarkably well to beat Dynaste 3 ¾ lengths off levels in the Charlie Hall - a bold leap at the last showed there was still plenty in the tank - and there is nothing between him and the favourite at their best.
Granted, there is always the danger of regression from first to second start with a horse of this profile - he was clearly primed for Wetherby - but the differential in price between him and Conti doesn't stack up to me.
*****
If Coneygree wins the Hennessy off a mark of 172, giving 9lb and a beating to the likes of Saphir Du Rheu, then connections will have a decision to make about supplementing him for Kempton, having neglected to declare him last week after a "technical glitch."
It will be some performance if he can win off that mark - though Denman won it off 174 - as he has to give lumps of weights to plenty of talented animals, not least 21lb to the 2013 Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth.
I am not sure that he achieved too much in maintaining his unbeaten hurdles record when beating Simonsig at Aintree last Saturday - for starters, he was gifted a ridiculous lead when the tapes went up - but I think the handicapper responsible for dropping him 29lb for four chase starts will be looking a bit sheepish if he wins on November 28th.
Newbury running plans for those outside the top end of the market are hard to come by - for example, Willie Mullins has five in the race, including the progressive mare Vroum Vroum Mag (hold your bets on her as she may run at Clonmel on Thursday and Newbury may come too soon afterwards, according to Ruby Walsh in his RUK blog) and Don Poli - but one horse that looks primed to run, and run well, is Smad Place, currently available at odds of 15.529/2 on the exchange.
I fancied him to win the race last year but, after travelling well for a long way, he dropped away tamely and finished a distant fifth. Fair play to Alan King though, as afterwards he came out and said it was trainer error for not giving him a prep race.
He has made no such mistake this time around though, and he jumped and travelled with real zest - perhaps a summer breathing operation has helped him - when beating Fingal Bay by eight lengths over an extended 2m4f on his reappearance at Kempton, and I think he has a big handicap in him off a mark of 155.
One reservation is the 3m2f trip if it was very testing, but Wayne Hutchison will be alive to that with so much pace on up front and will ride him accordingly, and I think he represents the best value in the race as it stands at odds of 14-1+ if you want an interest. He did look very good at Kempton on his return.
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And on the 2m chasing front, Vibrato Valtat and Simonsig, to a much lesser extent, came into the Tingle Creek and Champion Chase picture in the past week.
It looks a weak division, bar the favourite Un De Sceaux and the currently sidelined Dodging Bullets, and Vibrato Valtat couldn't have done it much better off a mark of 157 in the Haldon Gold Cup. He could be this season's Dodging Bullets from Ditcheat.
*****
Betting on the Champion Hurdle is dominated by 11-10 chance Faugheen, due to reappear in the Morgiana Hurdle in Ireland on Sunday, but notable performances in that division came from Arctic Fire and Irving at the weekend. The former defied market weakness to get up close home at Navan, while Irving was impressive in the Elite Hurdle following a summer wind operation.
As it stands, the favourite looks a class apart, but things can change quickly in National Hunt racing, not least through injury.
*****
More immediately, we turn to Cheltenham this weekend and the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday, and the Greatwood Hurdle on Sunday.
The two that I am interested in, in the Paddy Power, are the only horse out of the handicap, The Clock Leary (remember, you get your money back if he is balloted out, which is distinctly possible) and a horse with its stamina to conclusively prove in Croco Bay. I think both are overpriced at 80.079/1 and 38.037/1 respectively, but I am only recommending backing The Clock Leary for reasons that I'll come to.
Both fancies are borne out of training angles, if truth be told, and I'll start with The Clock Leary.
At this point I should mention that he is also entered in the 2m handicap chase at Cheltenham on Friday - so we may not even get a run for our money - but all the evidence points to the fact that this winning pointer is better over further, so hopefully they will go for the main prize if enough come out.
And, if he does, then he has a much better chance than odds of 80.079/1 suggest, as he could be the type when caught fresh after a break, and it is also a positive that the Venetia Williams stable has finally got going. All of her six winners this season have come in the last 10 days; a lot of people don't pay much, of any attention, for "trainer form" but I do.
One thing for sure is that the horse handles any type of ground from good to heavy - the ground is currently good to soft with an unsettled forecast - and would have a big chance if returning to his first time out 11 length dismissal of Cocktails At Dawn at Ascot last November. Obviously the runner-up has improved in the meantime but the selection would actually be 3lb better off if able to race off his correct mark on Saturday.
Croco Bay is also in the Shloer Chase on Sunday, and that is why I am not putting him up as a bet. Normally a horse rated 151 wouldn't have a cat in hell's chance of winning that race but it looks as if the valuable contest could well cut up badly - it has only attracted 11 entries at the five day stage, probably headed by Sprinter Sacre - so connections may be tempted to have a go, even if just for the place money alone.
But if Croco Bay does go for the Paddy Power then I think he has a big chance at the prices, although stamina is clearly the question mark, his Doncaster win in a four-runner race over 2m3f notwithstanding. All his best form has been at and around 2m, as his excellent Grand Annual third underlined.
However, he has everything going for him besides the stamina doubt, as he ran very well over 2m1f on fast ground at Kelso on his reappearance, and always improves massively for a run.
He progressed enormously from his first second start in 2013 and last season, where he ran away with a 2m1f Ascot handicap in the soft by 19 lengths.
Granted, he is now 17lb higher in the weights, but if he improves as much from Kelso as he has done in previous seasons then he is a big runner. We will revisit his chances if he gets the go-ahead later on in the week.
*****
The Greatwood Hurdle on Sunday looks a very tricky contest, and I want to see the final field before I part with any cash.
You are immediately drawn to Mick Jazz off a mark of 130, as they thought a lot of him last season.
He clearly had a problem as he wasn't seen out after finishing second to Top Notch at Newbury in December, but that form didn't work out badly, as besides the obvious subsequent exploits of the winner, the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th didn't do too poorly afterwards, either on the Flat or over hurdles.
I suspect that he could be a blot on the handicap if there is one, but he is short enough in the ante-post market at around 8-1 - especially as his trainer only tends to run his horses when everything is A1 in their favour - so I'll sit this out one for now.
Of the bigger priced horses Starluck, available at 75.074/1, has been given a chance by the handicapper and Bouvreuil, at 25.024/1, is a horse I like, but this is a day-of-race study and play for me.
Recommended Bet
Back The Clock Leary at 80.079/1 in the 14:25 at Cheltenham on Saturday