Back in the century before last, potential pioneers were urged to "Go West, young man!". Then, back in the last century, the Pet Shop Boys informed us that "Life is peaceful there, in the open air, where the skies are blue."
A current commentator might, with Breeders' Cup 2012 at Santa Anita in mind, add "where the juveniles are Lasix-free and the local Turf horses aren't up to much on the whole."
The Breeders' Cup has only ever loosely lived up to its self-proclaimed billing as "The World Thoroughbred Championships". But the opportunity of taking on the best home-trained youngsters in a drug-free environment, and of crossing swords with a home team that lacks strength in depth on grass, has prompted quite a European gold rush to California this coming weekend.
As with the "young men" of yore, some will hit pay dirt while others will inevitably draw a blank. The trick for the punter is to work out which is which. Or, rather, which horses make the potential rewards worth taking the risk of a bet.
Europe's brightest hope is Excelebration in the Mile, though it also has a strong combined team in the Turf (with St Nicholas Abbey, Treasure Beach and Shareta) among others.
In both races, the top Europeans will have to contend with Americans of considerable standing. There is little between Excelebration and Wise Dan (the best horse in North America in the latest year) and little between St Nicholas Abbey and Point of Entry (just about the second-best older horse in North America in the same time).
The odds give little away with the Europeans, and, if anything, the marvellously consistent Wise Dan looks the bet at the prices in the Mile. It promises to be an epic, come what may.
A better punt for those looking to wave the European flag of azure with a dozen golden stars may well be The Fugue in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf on Friday. The John Gosden-trained three-year-old has been unlucky on a couple of occasions but looks tailormade for ten furlongs round here and can bag another big one to go with her Nassau Stakes victory. Marketing Mix looks to be her biggest danger.
Elsewhere on Friday, the Juvenile Fillies is a fascinating showdown between East Coasters Dreaming of Julia and Kauai Katie and West Coaster Executiveprivilege, all of them unbeaten to date. There is not much between them on Timeform ratings but Executiveprivilege promises to go off shortest by some way. A lay of Bob Baffert's filly will have the smart pair Beholder and Spring In The Air running for you also.
Also, on Friday, make sure you don't ignore the G2 Twilight Derby, race 10 on the card. This is not a Breeders' Cup race, but it has attracted Speaking of Which and Grandeur from Ireland and Britain, and they hold a class advantage over their rivals. The Noseda-trained and unpenalised Grandeur looks the pick at this nine-furlong distance.
The Classic on Saturday is the richest race of all, with $5m in prize money, and it is difficult to get away from last year's second Game On Dude, who is even better with another year under his belt.
That said, the market seems to be underestimating Mucho Macho Man from a win and first-three perspective. Nine furlongs could be ideal for him, but he was third in the Kentucky Derby at this ten last year and might have been four from five this term with a bit more luck last time.
Switching the Godolphin-owned Emcee from the Sprint to the Dirt Mile looks to have been a good move, given the 14 runners in the former and nine in the latter. His stamina needs to be taken on trust, but he has looked a good deal more comfortable at seven furlongs than six and has the class to prevail if lasting home.
Amazombie has a perfectly decent chance of following up last year's win in the Sprint, with his latest run a better one than seems generally to have been appreciated, but a draw in stall 11 of 14 could make things tough and sitting the race out now makes sense.
The Turf Sprint has also attracted 14, and the unique six-and-a-half furlong course (it is downhill early and kinks right before sweeping left) may not suit many. The prospect of plenty of pace, including from short-running types, may tip the balance in favour of closers. Camp Victory and Unbridled's Note are two such, and classy enough, and backing them both looks the smart play.
Recommendations:
Lay to lose 2 pts EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE (22:08 GMT, Fri)
1 pt win THE FUGUE (22:48 GMT, Fri)
1 pt win GRANDEUR (00:15 GMT, Fri/Sat)
1 pt win EMCEE (20:14 GMT, Sat)
1 pt win UNBRIDLED'S NOTE, 0.5 pt win CAMP VICTORY (20:57 GMT, Sat)
1 pt win, 1pt place (first 3) MUCHO MACHO MAN (00:35 GMT, Sun)
Visit timeform.com to get Breeders' Cup Timeform cards for Santa Anita this weekend!