The 2022 US PGA Championship: Steve Rawlings' pick of the specials

Steven Rawlings
18 May 2022
4 min read

Pablo Larrazabal - fancied to enjoy Southern Hills

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With the US PGA Championship now just days away, Steve's had a good look at the plethora of side markets and he's picked out seven bets ranging from 11/10 to 125/1...

"Larrazabal will surely see this as a free hit and the industry-wide best price of 4/1 about him finishing inside the top-40 is attractive."

Spieth can get the better of some big-name rivals

Missing the cut at the US Masters has had a profound effect on Jordan Spieth. His unexpected weekend off at Augusta inspired him to a win The Heritage the following week and he traded at odds-on in Texas last week where he finished second to the defending champions, K.H Lee, at the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship.

Spieth has often put little runs of form together and especially so around the major championships. When he won the US Masters in 2015, he had form figures going into the event reading 1-2-2, he won the John Deere Classic in his next start having won the US Open that year, putting up a run of figures that read 3-1-1-4-10-2 and he won the Open Championship in his next start after winning the Travelers Championship in 2016.

This week's venue, Southern Hills, should fit his game nicely and he looks a fair bet at 11/10 to finish the week in front of Xander Schauffele.

Schauffele won the Zurich Classic alongside Patrick Cantlay in his penultimate start, and he finished well last week to finish fifth in Texas but his 2022 form figures before the Zurich, which included a missed cut at Augusta, read 12-34-18-3-13-MC-12-35-MC and he missed the cut in this event 12 months ago too.

Jordan Spieth at the Byron Nelson.jpg

Given Spieth's rich vein of form and the fact that he's much shorter than Xander in the outright market, it's a surprise to see we can back him at odds-against and I'm also happy to double him up with Cameron Smith to beat Viktor Hovland at the combined price of almost 3/1.

Hovland will feel at home in Oklahoma as he went to Oklahoma State but I'm not so sure he'll enjoy the run-off areas around the perched-up greens at Southern Hills.

By a country mile, scrambling is Hovland's biggest weakness, and he might just be worth taking on with someone that will relish the challenge.

Smith chanced to lead after each round

As highlighted in the preview, I really like Cameron Smith's chances this week and I'm also happy to take a tiny chance on him to Lead After Every Round and Win at 125/1.

Smith won the Sentry Tournament of Champions wire-to-wire in January, so he's held an elite field at bay once already this year and 125/1 is a sporting price.

Take a chance on Pablo in Top Spaniard honours

It's never easy to gauge how much DP World Tour form is worth when assessing major championships on US soil but it's perhaps worth remembering that Richard Bland led the US Open at halfway at Torrey Pines last year after winning the British Masters and that Italy's Guido Migliozzi finished fourth that week so it's often underestimated and that might be the case with a couple of bang-in-form Europeans this week.

Pablo Larrazabal doesn't have a great record in major championships, but he does have an exquisite touch around the greens, and he does arrive in Tulsa in the form of his life.

Since finishing 35th in the Dubai Desert Classic, the affable 39-year-old has put up form figures reading 6-3-1-MC-5-1-13 and he's ranked second and first for Scrambling in each of his last two starts.

Larrazabal will surely see this as a free hit and the industry-wide best price of 4/1 about him finishing inside the top-40 is attractive.

World number two, Jon Rahm, is the clear and very obvious favourite in the Top Spanish market but should he have an off week, Larrazabal looks a fair price there too at 8/1 to finish in front of Rahm, Sergio Garcia and Adri Arnaus.

Horsefield underrated in Top English market

Last week's Soudal Open winner, Sam Horsfield, is another that may be being underrated in Tulsa this week. In addition to ranking fifth for Driving Distance, he gained over seven strokes on approach in Belgium, and he ranked second for Scrambling.

If he puts up those sort of numbers this week he may even contend and he looks a solid each-way bet in what's not a very strong Top English market.

Horsfield missed the cut after his first DP World Tour win in 2020 but he bounced back to win again the following week so it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see him hold his form.

Matthew Fitzpatrick is the only Englishman not trading at a triple-figure price this week so with three places up for grabs, the 10/1 about Horsfield looks fair.

Try these #OddsOnThat wagers

Finally, there are lots and lots of #OddsonThat options to trawl through but the one I like in the #OddsOnThat - 11/1 to 32/1 section is both Keegan Bradley and Billy Horschel to finish inside the top-20 (including ties) at 12/1.

Billy Horschel at Bay Hill.jpg

Bradley, who won this Championship 11 years ago, is in cracking form and putting well, with recent form figures reading 8-4-2 and Horschel's 2022 figures read an impressive 23-36-11-6-16-2-W-9-43-21-2.

Horschel has a bizarrely poor record in this Championship but he most certainly has the game to thrive at Southern Hills and both men contending is a distinct possibility.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter