US Open Each-Way Tips: Reed can put best foot forward

American Patrick Reed
Patrick Reed can take US Open glory
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It's the second major of 2020 this week and, with Betfair Sportsbook paying 10 places, Dave Tindall is back with three each-way selections for the battle at Winged Foot...

"Location-wise, Reed has a very strong record in the North East. He's won the Northern Trust at Bethpage Black in New York (2016) and again at Liberty National in New Jersey (2018). In majors, he was solo fourth in the 2018 US Open at Shinnecock and tied 13th in the US PGA at Baltusrol."

Back Patrick Reed each-way @ 35/1

Main Bet: Patrick Reed each-way @ 35/1

It's still an amazing sight to see 10 each-way places in a golf event but it means I tend to ignore the players at the head of the market and use the flexibility of the extra places to go for bigger prices.

I could run through a list of players I really like this week but, each time, I'm put off by their odds.

Tyrrell Hatton has lots going for him, as do Hideki Matsuyama and Daniel Berger. But I'm not exactly wowed by respective prices of 35/1, 30/1 and 25/1.

I can also very easily see this being another Dustin Johnson (15/2) v Jon Rahm (9/1) shootout as we witnessed at the recent US Open-esque BMW Championship when the play-off number was 4-under.

Xander Schauffele is ticking a lot of boxes. But 14/1?

However, I do still think there's some juice in the price of Patrick Reed. And, unlike five of the six names mentioned above, he's already won a major.

Ironically, that's not actually a great pointer these days as they're shared around. And it's the one thing which stopped him coming out on top in my 10-year trends preview.

However, he did meet all the other qualification criteria and I can add some more on top of those.

Trends-wise, the strongest I came up with when looking at the last 10 years of US Opens were as follows: aged under 35, ranked in world's top 25, played in at least three US Opens, has had a top 25 in a US Open, posted a top two earlier this season, made the top eight in one of previous three starts, made the cut at the previous major, has won on American soil, has a PGA Tour win in the last two seasons, over 20/1 in the betting and isn't playing the week before Winged Foot.

Reed fits them all. He's 30, ranked World No.10, has played in six US Opens with a best of fourth, won the WGC-Mexico in February, was tied seventh on his latest start, posted tied 13th in the US PGA, is over 20/1 in the betting and didn't play last week.

So far so good. What brings him into even sharper focus is that he looks to be a great fit for this particular course - Winged Foot, a brutal 7,477-yard par 70.

Location-wise, Reed has a very strong record in the North East. He's won the Northern Trust at Bethpage Black in New York (2016) and again at Liberty National in New Jersey (2018).

In majors, he was solo fourth in the 2018 US Open at Shinnecock and tied 13th in the US PGA at Baltusrol.

As for the skills required at Winged Foot, the two previous winners of majors there - Davis Love in the 1997 US PGA and Geoff Ogilvy in the 2006 US Open - ranked 1st and 3rd respectively for All-Around. Both were also in the top five for Total Driving and Scrambling.

There may have been Gil Hanse alterations to the course but such skill-sets work well in US Opens and Reed is showing up well in them all.

He ranked 1st for Scrambling and 4th in All-Around when T7 at the Tour Championship two weeks ago. He was also 2nd for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee at East Lake (as he was at the Wyndham three starts earlier).

Finally, of course, he does seem to do all of his winning in big events.

The last six of his eight PGA Tour titles are a major, two WGCs, two FedEx Cup play-off events and the Sentry TOC for winners only.

He's won two with single digits under par (-4 and -9) while 'Captain America' secured fourth place in the 2018 US Open at Shinnecock with +4. So, yep, he can grind.

With a closing 65 at the Tour Championship, he'll be in good spirits and the 35/1 looks well worth a bet.

Next Best: Martin Kaymer each-way @ 100/1

Martin kaymer (720).jpg

Martin Kaymer seems to have been around for ever but, at 35, he's the same age as last year's US Open winner Gary Woodland.

Kaymer already has two majors in the bag, including this one at Pinehurst in 2014 when opening with a pair of 65s and winning by eight.

It wasn't that long ago that it would have seemed unthinkable backing him to win another but things appear to have turned around again for the amiable German.

The former World No.1 was 191st in the OWGR before a top three in the 2019 Memorial and he was chipping away at his world ranking at the start of 2020 when going 8-16-13-10 through the European Tour's four-tournament desert swing.

After spending lockdown helping build a terrace at his Dad's house, Kaymer was rusty with his own work tools but despite a woeful Friday 82 at the US PGA that led to a missed cut he'd dropped a hint about good things to come with an opening 66 which actually gave him a piece of the first-round lead.

Since then, he's returned to Europe to finish third at the UK Championship and runner-up at the Andalucia Masters, going mighty close to winning both.

And it's the stats from those two events which can't be ignored. In both, he gained over nine strokes on approach and over five on the greens.

In Andalucia, Kaymer was also second for Scrambling and if scoring is going to be of the old-school US Open variety this week - a number of top players are predicting over par after pre-event recces - surely it's relevant that Kaymer has just shown his mettle by finishing runner-up with a score of 3-over at Valderrama.

The one added angle I wanted to find was some form in this part of the United States and it's there via a tied seventh place in the 2016 PGA Championship at Baltusrol - like Winged Foot, the design work of A.W. Tillinghast.

Can Kaymer win this week? It's a stretch.

Can he place in the top 10? Absolutely he can. And that's why the 100/1 is enough to lure me in.

The other European who came close to selection was US PGA runner-up Paul Casey.

Casey actually has some course form after surviving an opening 77 to finish tied 15th at Winged Foot in 2006.

More recently in these parts, he posted T10 at Baltusrol in the 2016 US Open and T16 at Shinnecock in 2018.

Winning back-to-back Valspar Championships with -8 (2019) and -10 (2018) is further evidence of Casey requiring the necessary grit.

Also, history suggests that he if does well in one major, he'll go on to have another good one later in the same season. Perhaps hold that thought for November's US Masters.

The 50/1 is decent and I'll certainly think about Casey in match bets.

Final Bet: Louis Oosthuizen each-way @ 80/1

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For my final Betfair pick, I'm again looking through the prism of those 10 each-way places rather than the much harder task of trying to land the winner at a compromised price.

So I've landed on Louis Oosthuizen at a joint-industry best 80/1 despite the preferential place terms.

For starters, Oosthuizen has the air of a US Open winner in that nothing fazes him. Think back to his compatriots Ernie Els and Retief Goosen who shared four US Opens between 1994 and 2004. Both had unflappable temperaments - a trend continued by DJ and Brooks Koepka (Reed may not fit the bill but his record in big events shows he can get in the zone when it really counts.)

Perhaps as a result, Oosthuizen is good at majors. He's won one and also holds a Grand Slam of second places in each of the four.

His runner-up finish in this event came at Chambers Bay in 2015 and he hasn't been out of the top 25 in the four held since. That run includes tied seventh last year.

Also T9 at Congressional in 2011, it's again worth looking at his record in the region as there are more positives.

In New York, he was T16 in the 2018 US Open at Shinnecock and, prior to that, 10th in The Northern Trust at Glen Oaks and T18 and T5 in the two Barclays he played at Bethpage Black.

New Jersey? T22 at Baltusrol, along with T28 (Ridgewood) and T6 (Liberty National) in the 2018 and 2019 Northern Trusts.

As for current form, he's made his last seven cuts and, starting from August, the 2010 Open winner was T6 at the WGC-St Jude, T33 in the PGA, T13 at The Northern Trust in Boston and T25 in the BMW Championship.

His driving was strong - 12-8-13-35 for SG: Off The Tee - in those four events and last time out Oosthuizen was ranked No.1 for Scrambling at the BMW.

I'll admit, I've struggled to win money from Oosthuizen down the years, but if I've learned anything it's that he's best played when under the radar at a bigger price.

Some players drop a clear hint they're ready to shine but not Louis. Certainly on American soil at least.

Looking at his most recent top 10s in the USA, these were his finishing positions in the previous event he'd contested: 54, 20, 57, 56, MC, 2, 50, 41, 41.

So, with Oosthuizen, we're often backing pedigree rather than blatant good form (he was T25 last time out for the record).

I'm prepared to try that theory here and hopefully get rewarded at a hefty 80/1.

Dave's 2020/2021 P/L

Staked: £30
Returned: £0
P/L: -£30

2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89

Dave Tindall,

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