How To Bet on Golf

Steve Rawlings Golf Previews

Golf Each-Way Tips

Long Odds Golf Tips

PGA Tour Golf Tips

Each-Way Calculator

US Open 2022 Top 5 and Top 10 Tips: Rahm can make bold defence

Dave Tindall
15 June 2022
5:00 min read

Jon Rahm can enjoy another excellent US Open

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Dave Tindall arms you with the stats for a punt on the Top 5 and Top 10 Finish markets in the US Open at The Country Club...

"I'm definitely buying into the idea that those who have snubbed the move to LIV will have extra motivation this week."

Back Jon Rahm for Top 5 @ 4.3100/30

Rory McIlroy - Extra motivation could be key

Rory's reaction to this week's course? "I liked it. I liked what I saw. I played here a couple of years ago. I guess I played all the holes that are going to be played this week, but in a different setup or different routing, I guess. It seems pretty playable off the tee. There's some rough, but if you just miss a fairway, you can certainly get it to the green. You're going to lose control of your ball and not be able to spin it into the greens, but at least on the front nine there's a lot of greens that have very manicured run-ups, so the greens probably play a little longer than they actually are. That front nine has two short par-4s. It's got a very reachable par-5. The two par-3s are pretty tough. A couple of longer par-4s." He arrives on the back of a win at the Canadian Open, just as he did at Pebble Beach in 2019 where he finished tied ninth. This time, however, he seems to be driven by extra motivation due to taking a strong position over the LIV golf threat. For Rory it's about legacy and the majors not money. That extra fuel could carry him far.

Last four events: 1-18-8-5
US Open form: 7-8-9-MC-MC-MC-9-23-41-MC-1-MC-10
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 26%, Top 10: 42%

Justin Thomas - JT hoping to repeat winning formula

"It's a great course. I came on Monday last week, and it worked out well very similar to the PGA where I was able to go kind of on the way to the venue for that week. It's a cool place. It's very in front of you. It's old school. You've got doglegs. I haven't been on the course since I was here Monday, but I'm sure it's going to be long rough and firm and fast greens. You always know US Open is a grind. That's why I love it. I think that's why a lot of guys love it. It's one of the few times of the year you're kind of playing more in relation to par, and par is a good score. Driving the ball is going to be very important this week. I think like any major, especially US Open, scrambling and salvaging and making those putts for par can kind of be the momentum builders." Thomas fought it out with McIlroy and Tony Finau down the stretch at the Canadian Open before finishing third. In that respect, his build-up is similar to the US PGA where he finished top five at the Byron Nelson and then went on to lift the Wanamaker trophy. JT will hope that prep helps produce the desired goal again.

Last four events: 3-MC-1-5
US Open form: 19-8-MC-25-9-32-MC
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 30%, Top 10: 42%

Scottie Scheffler - Masters champ ready for tough test

"Golf course is in good shape. I was here in 2013. The course has changed a bit since then. I think they're mostly good changes. Should be a good test. The greens are nice and firm. It seems like the weather is going to be good for the rest of the week. Rough is healthy per usual. I like the challenge. I think these events are really hard obviously. For me it's kind of fun just challenging yourself like that. This style of golf I think really suits how I play and suits mentally how I approach tournaments, and so for me, I'm excited for this week and getting started." Beyond the positive noises, Scheffler has taken to the majors like a duck to water. Prior to winning April's US Masters, he'd made the top 10 in each of his previous three majors, including tied seventh in this tournament at Torrey Pines. But with just one top 10 in his last five starts since landing the Green Jacket, are there hints that his real purple patch is over for now?

Last four events: 18-2-MC-15
US Open form: 7-MC-27-MC
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 22%, Top 10: 34%

Jon Rahm - Defending champion a fan of the course

"I played the front nine yesterday. I think it's a wonderful course. It's a beautiful design. I always love coming to places and courses that were designed so long ago because even though they add tee boxes, the uniqueness of the architecture from back then still stands. It's not the biggest greens out there, right? I think that's the biggest challenge. I wouldn't say they're the narrowest fairways we've played on a US Open, but second shots into the green are going to be important. The rough around the greens is about as healthy as I've seen in a while. It's a US Open. You need everything. You need to drive well, hit your irons well, chip well, and putt well and be mentally sane for four days." Rahm was Low Amateur (tied 23rd) on his US Open debut at Oakmont in 2016 while he's finished third and first in two of the last three. He'll be itching to challenge after two modest majors so far in 2022: tied 27th at Augusta and tied 48th in the US PGA.

Last four events: 10-48-1-27
US Open form: 1-23-3-MC-MC-23
Last 50 starts - Win: 10%, Top 5: 28%, Top 10: 54%

Cameron Smith - Aussie pumped about layout

"I love it, mate. It's probably my favorite US Open venue I think I've been to. Lots of options off the tee. Have to strike the ball well, obviously. Yeah, just a real typical old-school course. I love it. I love the majors. I feel like they bring out the best in me. I love the demand for good play and just the grinding out good scores. I feel like I've had a little bit of success in US Opens before. Yeah, I feel like this is a really good venue for me. I just need to hit some more fairways. That for me, especially out here with rough like this, it will be a big part this week. I think my iron game is exactly where it needs to be. I'll have plenty of looks at birdie." Smith's doubt seems fair because he sits a lowly 161st in Total Driving, ranking outside the top 100 for both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy. The Aussie has also failed to make the top 10 in five starts since finishing third at the US Masters.

Last four events: 48-13-13-21
US Open form: MC-38-72-MC-59-4
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 22%, Top 10: 30%

Xander Schauffele - US Open expert has stats to extend streak

"I actually think it's such a tee-shot-and-who-can-hit-the-most-greens kind of competition," Schauffele told Sports Illustrated after seeing The Country Club. "The greens are so small and the pin locations seem to be kind of few on certain greens, so if you hit a lot of surfaces you're going to have a reasonable look." Schauffele has an incredible US Open record having never finished worse than seventh in his five appearances. The key? "I think if you're playing normal courses, there's a chance that you sort of get lost in the sauce of thinking you can pull off more than you can versus when you're here. It's very straightforward. You know, the decision's already made for you half the time on what you can and cannot do, dumbs it down into your decision-making category of like, well, you had a really good shot. If you don't, then you can either go for the green or you can't and then you play from there." Sounds simple but it works. His stats look strong (7th Tee-To-Green, 4th Total Driving) so there's good reason to think he can flourish once more.

Last four events: 18-13-5-1
US Open form: 7-5-3-6-5
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 26%, Top 10: 34%

Patrick Cantlay - Majors record needs vast improvement

Cantlay is perhaps the biggest conundrum in the field this week for those considering a win bet or a punt in these Top 5/10 markets. Only Justin Thomas of the top 10 in the betting has averaged more top fives over the last 50 starts and Cantlay has bagged five individual titles starting from the 2019 Memorial Tournament. He was third at Muirfield Village on his latest start a couple of weeks ago. But there's no getting away from his poor record in the majors. The Californian has finished tied 39th (US Masters) and missed cut (US PGA) in his two attempts so far this season and that means he hasn't managed a single top 10 in a major since 2019. In his entire career, he has only two top 10s in 21 attempts. That will surely turn but, for now, something is going wrong and he's actually missed the cut in three of the last six. He has the calm temperament needed for a US Open and a positive spin is that he's made the weekend six times out of six in this event, was Low Amateur on debut in 2011 and has posted tied 15th and tied 21st in two of the last three.

Last four events: 3-MC-1-2
US Open form: 15-43-21-45-41-21
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 28%, Top 10: 34%

Jordan Spieth - 2015 winner will want to improve record

Spieth is one of those who has really nailed his colours to the PGA Tour so, like McIlroy, will that put extra fire in his belly? There was even a tweet from the range this week that he'd gone up to Billy Horschel to congratulate him on his Memorial win but blanked LIV duo Kevin Na and Talor Gooch. Spieth has already created some legacy in this event by winning at Chambers Bay in 2015 but, notably, that's his only US Open top 10 in 10 appearances. His long game stats suggest he can improve upon that this year and The Country Club, where creativiy looks an asset, should appeal (he hadn't spoken to the press at the time of writing). The three-time major winner has underwhelmed in the big events so far this year, missing the cut at The Players Championship and the US Masters before a tied 34th at the US PGA, but that's atypical and his form has been strong in 2022.

Last four events: 18-7-34-2
US Open form: 19-MC-65-MC-35-37-1-17-MC_21
Last 50 starts - Win: 4%, Top 5: 20%, Top 10: 28%

Matthew Fitzpatrick - Englishman has memorable course history

Fitzpatrick won the US Amateur here in 2013 and that was the inevitable opening question of his press conference. "I remember everything. I've been back a few times since, and love coming back here. Back in 2013 you had to hit fairways and greens. The fairways were really, really tight and the rough was thick, and that's why we really did well that week, as well as scrambled really well. I think by the looks of it from what I can see, it's the same again, which is nice. I'm staying with the family I stayed with when I played the Amateur here and my parents are here, as well, so I'm just really excited for the week more than anything." And as for liking a US Open test, he added: "I do probably prefer the US Open setup the most, just because I just love how tough they tend to get the golf courses." He's had a couple of 12ths so far and comes in hot after a tied 10th in Canada last week made it seven top 10s from his last PGA Tour 12 starts.

Last four events: 18-7-34-2
US Open form: 55-MC-12-12-35-54-48
Last 50 starts - Win: 4%, Top 5: 20%, Top 10: 40%

Sam Burns - Proven winner looking to take next step

The 25-year-old American has a far better winning record than most of his more celebrated rivals over the last two seasons. Burns picked up two PGA Tour titles in 2021 and has added another pair this season: successfully defending his Valspar Championship crown in March and coming from seven back to capture last month's Charles Schwab Challenge. Both those 2022 wins came in playoffs so he has plenty of guts too. But, as for the majors, he hasn't made a mark yet. The bare stats are nothing better than 20th in eight starts although at least that tied 20th came in last month's PGA Championship so it could be the foothold he needs. A fourth place in Canada on Sunday will add further confidence.

Last four events: 4-1-20-MC
US Open form: MC-41-MC
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 22%, Top 10: 32%

Conclusion

I'm definitely buying into the idea that those who have snubbed the move to LIV will have extra motivation this week.

Jon Rahm US Open win trophy.jpg

One of those is defending champion Jon Rahm, who spoke very eloquently in his press conference, saying: "I want to play against the best in the world in a format that's been going on for hundreds of years.

"I've never really played the game of golf for monetary reasons. I play for the love of the game, and I want to play against the best in the world.

"I've always been interested in history and legacy, and right now the PGA Tour has that."

This historic course looks a perfect stage for Rahm to show that and his 1st place in the Total Driving charts should serve him well.

He's yet to do it in the majors this season but a recent victory in Mexico and a top 10 at Memorial last time suggests he can have another great US Open following his win at Torrey Pines last year and third place at Pebble Beach in 2019.

Back Rahm for a Top 5 at 4.3100/30.

I'll also make the more aggressive play and back Xander Schauffele for a Top 5 at 6.05/1.

It's a fairly well-known stat that he's made the top 10 in all five US Open appearances but three of those doubled up as top fives.

He's 2nd on the PGA Tour's All-Around stats this season which shows that all parts of his game are firing and six top fives from 20 starts in the majors highlights his class at this level.