15:00 - April 13, 2026 - Brilliant Rory makes a successful defence
A series of challengers had a crack but when the dust settled at Augusta it was reigning champion Rory McIlroy who held the green jacket once again.
The challenges came thick and fast with Sam Burns being one of the first to make his charge. Having trailed the joint 54-hole leaders, Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young, by a stroke, Burns birdied the opening hole on Sunday to tie the lead and he hit a low of 5.59/2 on the Betfair Exchange but that was as good as it got for the 29-year-old.
A disastrous seven followed at the par five second and he finished the week in a tie for seventh, but he still fared far better than his playing partner, Shane Lowry, who shot 80 to fall from fourth to tied 30th!
Of the two leaders, Young was the first to make a move when he birdied the second before Rory birdied the third and he went two clear when McIlroy double-bogeyed the par three fourth, thanks to a calamitous three-putt.
Young hit a low price of 2.111/10 after Rory's double at four but after a brilliant par save on the tough par five fifth, he hit an ugly pulled putt for par on six, just moments after Rory had missed his par save.
From slightly off the pace, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose and yesterday morning's 170.0169/1 in-play pick, Russell Henley, were all charging as the pressure started to get to Young.
Henley hit a low of 7.06/1 when he had a chance to tie the lead at the par four 10th and the world number one, Scheffler, who didn't drop a shot all weekend, hit a low of 3.6553/20, but it was the three-time runner-up and fan favourite, Justin Rose that made the most threatening move.
The 45-year-old Englishman hit a low of 2.427/5 when he led by two after birdies at seven, eight and nine saw him go two clear of the field but back-to-back bogeys followed at 11 and 12 and his race was run when he'd three-putted the par five 13th after finding the green in two, just a few minutes after Rory had birdied the 12th to open up a gap of two.
The defending champ eased three clear with another birdie at 13 and that was the end of the drama.
Scheffler birdied 15 and 16 to get within two of the lead but after a run of four straight pars form the 14th, Rory could afford a scruffy bogey at the 72nd hole to win by one.
09:30 - April 12, 2026 - Stats point to Cam Young
Having led the US Masters by six strokes at the midway point, the largest 36-hole lead in the history of the event, Rory McIlroy didn't look a short price at around 1.454/9 to make a successful title defence heading into the weekend.
But on a day of good scoring overall, when the field averaged just 70.63, Rory McIlroy's one-over-par 73 in round three has blown the event wide open.
Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:15.
Rory McIlroy -11 2.8815/8
Cameron Young -11 3.7511/4
Sam Burns -10 8.615/2
Shane Lowry -9 16.015/1
Justin Rose -8 16.015/1
Jason Day -8 30.029/1
Scottie Scheffler -7 13.012/1
Haotong Li -7 120.0119/1
Patrick Reed -6 90.089/1
Russell Henley -6 170.0169/1
Patrick Cantlay -6 170.0169/1
-5 and 330.0329/1 bar
My two pre-event picks, Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Young, shot the two lowest rounds (seven-under par 65s) on Moving Day to put themselves in-contention with 18 to play, but the stats are against Scheffler, who trails by four.
Danny Willett, who benefited from Jordan Spieth's dramatic collapse in 2016, having sat three off the lead through 54 holes, is the only winner in the last 12 years not to be sitting first or second after three rounds and Charl Schwartzel, who birdied the last four holes on Sunday to win 15 years ago, is the only man to win from as far as four strokes back since 1987.
Given he shot a four-over-par 40 on the front nine on Thursday morning, it's quite remarkable to see Young tied for the lead with a round to go and for me he's the value bet with a round to go at odds of around 11/43.75.
As highlighted in my preview, where I put him up at 25/126.00 to win the tournament, the world number three ticked a lot of the trends and stats boxes before the off and given the last 12 US Masters winners have sat first or second with a round to go, he's ideally placed with 18 to play.
Since his somewhat nervy start on day one, Young has played the best golf of the week so far and his stats back that up.
In contrast to Rory, who ranks 54th for Driving Accuracy after three rounds, having only found the fairway on one of the 12 par fives played to date, Young ranks second for DA, seventh for both Driving Distance and Greens In Regulation, 16th for Scrambling and fourth for Putting Average.
He also ranks first for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green so he's in the form of his life at just the right time but can he handle the pressure?
He confessed to feeling nervous on day one and that may have contributed to his surprisingly poor start so he may well get jittery today.
Young was a player to take on in-the-mix up until last year and he famously finished second seven times on the PGA Tour before he finally got off the mark at the Wyndham Championship last year.
He's looked a different beast since then though and he was an impressive winner of the Players Championship last time out so it wouldn't be a surprise if he just kicked on and got the job done.
I'm obviously happy to be on from the get-go but given how well he's playing, and how strongly the in-running trends favour the frontrunners at Augusta, I'd be siding with him now at 11/43.75 had I not been on from the start.
Betfair Exchange backers fancy McIlroy but he's not for me
Rory heads the market and so he should, but he needs to start finding a few more fairways and to keep putting like he has over the first three days.
The defending champ ranks first for Putting Average and ninth for Strokes Gained: Putting so it's the flatstick that's kept him in it up until now.
The market considers Rory putting yesterday's disappointing round behind him to make a successful defence the most likely scenario, but the value sits with the man alongside him.
Sam Burns' temperament is a concern
At odds in excess of 7/18.00, Sam Burns is a big price given he only trails by a stroke but his record in-contention of late, especially in majors, is a big concern.
The 29-year-old hasn't won since he beat Young in the final edition of the WGC Match Play three years ago and on the last two occasions he's been in with a chance with 18 to play he's been very disappointing.
Having sat tied for second and just one off the lead with a round to go at the Open Championship in 2024, he shot 80 on Sunday to finish 31st and having led the last major Championship, the 2025 US Open, by a stroke with a round to go, he finished seventh, beaten by five, after a 78 in round four.
The weather was against him at Oakmont, where he was matched at a low of 1.564/7 when he led by two after 10 holes before a lengthy suspension in play derailed him, but those latest efforts in-the-mix in majors is a concern.
Shane Lowry sits alone in fourth and just two back after making his second hole-in-one at Augusta at the 6th hole yesterday but he's another that's been really disappointing in-contention of late.
He threw the Cognizant Classic away last month after trading at just 1.031/33 in-running on Sunday and he's been leading or within two strokes of the lead with a round to go in a 72-hole individual stroke play event 11 times without winning since he converted a four-stroke lead at the Open Championship in 2019.
He partnered Rory when winning the Zurich Classic pairs event last year but his Open win was the last time he won an individual stroke play event and he hasn't won an individual PGA Tour event on American soil since 2015.
Henley and Cantlay my two outsiders to back on final day
Having been beaten in each of the last two playoffs staged at Augusta, in 2017 and 2025. Justin Rose would be a hugely popular winner and he demonstrated last year, when he drew alongside Rory with a 66 on Sunday having trailed by seven with 18 to play, that we can't completely rule out an off-the-pace winner, despite what the stats tell us.
The last 29 US Masters winners have all been within four of the lead with a round to go, so it's highly unlikely that anyone below Scheffler and Haotong Li on the 54 hole leaderboard can go on to win but it's undeniable that the two men alongside Patrick Reed in a tie for ninth, Russell Henley and Patrick Cantlay, are way too big to ignore at 170.0169/1.
Back Russell Henley
Henley is 80/181.00 and Cantlay 100/1101.00 on the Sportsbook, with three places up for grabs, but I've played them both on the Exchange with a view to laying them back partially should they put in a charge.
Back Patrick Cantlay
08:40 - April 11, 2026
Rory McIlroy hit just 2.1411/10 to defend his US Masters title as early as the fourth hole of round two yesterday.
Having tied the lead with Sam Burns after round one, McIlroy threatened to run away with the event when he birdied the 2nd, 3rd and 4th holes to lead by three, but he hit the skids after that, playing his next seven holes in two-over-par.
With a bunch of class acts in-the-mix, we looked all set for a tight looking leaderboard to survey today but a birdie at the par three 12th sparked Rory back into life.
He followed the two at 12 with a birdie at the par five 13th, despite a poor drive, and after he'd scrambled a par at 14 he made another birdie at the par 5 15th, despite another poor drive. And he went odds-on when he hit his tee shot on the par three 16th to inside two feet.
After he'd tapped in there to lead by four, another poor drive followed at the par four 17th and it looked like the run of birdies was going to come to an end before he hit this incredible recovery shot to chalk up another.
Remarkably, Rory then birdied the 18th to pull six strokes clear of the remainder and going into the weekend, he now holds the biggest 36-hole lead ever at Augusta.
Rory's seven-under-par 65 yesterday is the lowest round ever shot by a defending champ at Augusta and he's the only man to lead a major by six or more after two rounds more than once. He also led the US Open by six at halfway back in 2011. He went on to win by eight.
Rory's lead is even more incredible when we consider he's yet to find a fairway on a par five, that he's missed more fairways than he's found over the first two days and that he ranks 90th for Driving Accuracy!
Even the man himself is surprised by where he finds himself heading into the weekend.
"Obviously that was a bonus that it went in (the chip on 17)," McIlroy said after his second round. "Just an amazing end to the round. When I was standing on the 12th tee, I didn't imagine I'd be six ahead going into the weekend."
Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:35.
Rory McIlroy -12 1.454/9
Patrick Reed -6 24.023/1
Sam Burns -6 27.026/1
Tommy Fleetwood -5 22.021/1
Justin Rose -5 26.025/1
Shane Lowry -5 50.049/1
Cameron Young -4 32.031/1
-4 and 80.079/1 bar
Having sat tied for 27th and seven off the lead after round one last year, Rory sat tied for third and just two off the lead before he went on to win, and up with the pace is the place to be at this stage at Augusta.
Despite last year's 36-hole leader, Justin Rose, losing the playoff to Rory, seven of the last 12 winners have been leading or tied for the lead through 36 holes and 38 of the last 39 Masters champions have been T10 or better after the first two rounds.
This is the 90th edition of the tournament and only eight winners in the entire history of the US Masters have been outside the top ten at the halfway stage.
Charl Schwartzel, who sat tied for 12th and six off the lead 15 years ago, is the only winner to be outside the top ten at this stage since Jack Nicklaus opened with rounds of 74 and 71 to trail the halfway leader, Seve Ballesteros, by six strokes 40 years ago.
Like Rory yesterday, Schwartzel famously birdied the final four holes to win in 2011 and Tiger Woods, in 2006, is the only other winner this century to be more than four shots back at halfway, but he only sat third. Chris DiMarco, who Tiger beat in a playoff, had led by four at halfway.
Rory makes history at Augusta
Rory is the first player ever to lead the US Masters at halfway by more than five strokes and five of the six men to lead by five went on to win. Harry Cooper, 90 years ago, was the first to lead by five after 36 holes and he's the only one to fail to convert.
In what was just the third edition of the US Masters, Cooper was beaten by a stroke by the inaugural winner, Horton Smith, after he shot rounds of 71 and 76 over the weekend.
The last man to lead here by five at halfway was Scottie Scheffler in 2022 and he was trading at around 11/102.11 heading into the weekend before going on to win by three and he's also the last man to lead a PGA Tour event by six at halfway.
Scheffler was trading at 1.625/8 when he led the Houston Open by six after 36-holes last year and he went on to win by eight.
Scheffler was only the ninth man to lead a PGA Tour event by six at halfway over the last 30 years and he was the sixth to convert.
The three men to fail were Darren Clarke at the RBC Heritage in 2005, Jhonattan Vegas at the Barbasol in 2016 and Sung Kang at the Houston Open in 2017.
Tim Heron shot weekend rounds of 72 and 69 to win the Cognizant Classic by four 30 years ago but major winners, Tiger, Phil Mickelson, Rory, Martin Kaymer and Scottie, all kicked on to win comfortably by at least eight strokes.
We've seen some extremely dramatic finishes on Sunday here, with Greg Norman and Jordan Spieth (who was the defending champ at the time) relinquishing huge leads in round four, but it's impossible to look past Rory at this stage and odds of almost 1/21.50 look more than fair for anyone that doesn't mind backing an odds-on shot.
10:40 - April 10, 2026
The morning starters averaged 74.6 on day one of the US Masters, which was just 0.1 of a stroke less than the afternoon wave, but the leaderboard is dominated by the early starters with the top five, and seven of the top nine, having all teed off early yesterday.
Here's the 18-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:20.
Rory McIlroy -5 4.131/10
Sam Burns -5 15.529/2
Patrick Reed -3 21.020/1
Json Day -3 36.035/1
Kurt Kitayama -3 60.059/1
Scottie Scheffler -2 5.39/2
Xander Schauffele-2 11.010/1
Justin Rose -2 16.531/2
Shane Lowry -2 44.043/1
Toomy Fleetwood -1 26.025/1
-1 and 55.054/1 bar
Only three men have ever made a successful title defence of the US Masters title (Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods), and nobody has achieved the feat since Tiger in 2002.
That's quite strange given how many multiple winners there are and how well course form stands up at Augusta.
That must be construed as a negative for the world number two, Rory McIlroy, who's tied for the lead with Sam Burns after 18 holes. But has there been a more relaxed defending champion at Augusta since Woods in 2002?
Having won the US Masters in 1997 and the US PGA Championship two years later, Woods completed the career Grand Slam by winning the Open Championship by eight strokes in 2000, just five weeks after he'd romped to a 15-stroke victory at Pebble Beach to claim his first US Open title.
He went on to win the second of his four US PGA titles the following month and he must still rue his 75-72 start at Augusta that gave him too much to do in the year's first major but that may go some way to explaining why he won the next two editions by two and three strokes respectively.
Tiger's slam was completed with ease and of the five men before Rory to achieve the feat - Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Nicklaus and Woods - the longest wait any of the five had endured between winning the third of the four and fourth was three years.
Rory McIlroy is force to be reckoned with at Augusta
When Rory arrived at Augusta 12 months ago, not only was he attempting to complete the Grand Slam at the 11th attempt, he was also trying to win his first major in 11 years.
It's almost impossible to imagine the sort of pressure he was under last year and he must have been thinking it may never happen so, with the benefit of hindsight, the fact that he's started so well this time around shouldn't be a surprise.
This is the first time Rory's led or been tied for the lead at Augusta after round one since he famously shot 80 in round four to blow a four- stroke lead in 2011.
He heads the market and rightly so. He's going to be a force to be reckoned with over the next three days.
As a demonstration of just how well Augusta suits him, Rory trailed by seven in a tie for 27th after the opening round 12 months ago but still led by two with a round to go, and it's extremely rare to see someone win here after such a slow start.
The five US Masters winners before Rory last year were inside the top three places after round one and 18 of the last 20 US Masters winners were within four shots of the lead after the opening round.
If Rory is going to become just the fourth man in history to defend the title, he's going to need to hold off some quality players.
As many as five of the other eight men inside the top six and ties after round one have also won at least one major Championship. Two of them, Scheffler and Patrick Reed, have previously won at Augusta.
Jason Day, who sits tied for third, finished second here on debut 15 years ago, and Justin Rose, who sits alongside the two-time winner Scheffler, has finished second here three times, so Augusta form is on display in abundance already.
Reed is Masters value after day one
Rory and Scottie understandably dominate the market and having backed Scheffler before the off I'll obviously be cheering him on, but there's definitely value to be had after 18 holes.
Anyone remotely interested in Xander Schauffele at what I perceived to be a short price of 16/117.00 before the off will be all over the 10/111.00 available this morning.
That looks a decent price after his two-under-par 70 opening round, and Day looks fairly priced at 36.035/1, but the one I like is Reed at 20/121.00.
That's the same price he was trading at when he sat tied for fourth and three off the lead, after shooting 69 on Thursday, before winning the title in 2018. This is only the third time he's broken 70 in round one.
Yesterday's 69 was a frustrating score in the end given the 35-year-old was five-under through nine and that he's already been matched at as low as 7.87/1 on the Betfair Exchange.
His two-over-par back nine was a scruffy run of holes yesterday but he's got enough experience to put that behind him and move on.
Since winning here eight years ago, he's put up course form figures reading 36-10-8-35-4-12-3 so it would be a bit of a surprise if he wasn't there or thereabouts on Sunday and he's my idea of the value after day one.
Back Patrick Reed