Masters Trends: Steve Rawlings explains the final round stats

Steven Rawlings
28 March 2022
4 min read

The 12th hole at Augusta National...scene of many a meltdown

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The final day of The Masters is synonymous with drama but does it always deliver? Steve 'The Punter' Rawlings has all the Sunday stats from Masters past...

"If multiple major winners like Norman, McIlroy and Spieth can come a cropper with a big lead on Sunday, anyone can wilt under the pressure and it’s always wise to take a bit of profit just in case."

The first thing to consider when surveying the 54-hole leaderboard at Augusta on the morning of April 10 is just how few US Masters winners come from off the pace.

The 1959 winner, Art Wall, who trailed by six on Sunday morning, is still the only winner to be outside the top-10 with a round to go, most of the winners play in the final group, and comeback winners are extremely rare.

Jack Nicklaus won his record-breaking 18th major and his sixth Masters title at the age of 46 from off the pace in 1986, thanks to a seven-under-par 65 final round which included a sensational six-under-par 30 on the back back-nine.

Jack had sat tied for ninth and four off the lead through three rounds but only four winners since have trailed by four or more strokes.

Just three years after Jack's sixth Masters victory, Nick Faldo won the first of his three titles, and he too came from off the pace...

They needed to play catch-up on Sunday after poor weather at the 1989 edition and Faldo, who had sat tied for second after 12 holes of round three when play was suspended on Saturday, performed poorly in ideal conditions on Sunday morning, navigating the last six holes of round three in two-over-par.

Nick faldo 1990 Masters.jpg

That saw the Englishman slip into a tie for ninth and five off the lead with a round to go but he played much better in round four, emulating Nicklaus with a final round 65 to tie Scott Hoch, who he beat in a playoff.

Faldo successfully defended in 1990 and six years later, having sat solo second after three rounds, he benefited from one of the worst collapses in Masters history to claim his third title, when Greg Norman threw away a six-stroke lead on Sunday. So bad was the Aussie's capitulation that Faldo won by five!

But are those dramatic Sundays merely outliers? In the 25 years since Norman's collapse, only one winner (Charl Schwartzel in 2011) has been more than three adrift after three rounds, but even that's a bit misleading given he sat tied for second after 54 holes.

Comeback winners may be rare and four of the last seven winners were at least three in front with a round to go but that doesn't mean we haven't witnessed plenty of drama over the years...

Leaders can implode at very short odds

Schwartzel famously birdied the last four holes to win in 2011 but only after the clear 54-hole leader, Rory McIlroy, had imploded after the turn.

Rory was backed at a low of 1.374/11 on the Betfair Exchange before he lost his way and he eventually finished 15th but he's far from the first clear leader to slip up here.

We've seen 16 men take an advantage into round four so far this century and Rory is one of seven to fail to convert.

Francesco Molinari led by two after 54 holes in 2019 and went into low odds of 1.68/13 on the Exchange before Tiger Woods caught and passed him to claim his fifth title and the Italian is one of a number of players to trade at odds-on before losing in the last 13 years.

Tiger Woods wins Masters.jpg

We witnessed two players trading at odds-on before getting beat in a play-off in 2009. Kenny Perry, who bogeyed the last two holes, was matched at just 1.331/3 in-running and Chad Campbell, who bogeyed the first extra hole to be eliminated from the playoff, touched odds-on when he found the fairway and the eventual winner, Angel Cabrera, drove into the trees.

Adam Scott traded at 1.75/7 in 2011 after Rory had fallen away, Louis Oosthuizen traded at heavy odds-on when Bubba Watson found the trees in extra time in 2012, before that famous miracle recovery shot at the second play-off hole, Jason Day hit 1.75/7 in 2013 but missed out on the playoff (won by Adam Scott) by two strokes, and Justin Rose hit a low of 1.171/6 in 2017, as Sergio Garcia took a penalty drop on the par five 13th, before the Spaniard went on to win in extra time.

Up with the pace is definitely the place to be in the year's first major but Augusta is famous for its drama on the back-nine on Sunday.

This is where the beauty of the Exchange comes into play - laying back some profit at odds-on to cover your stake or ensure a bit of profit on the field is definitely the sensible thing to do if you get the chance.

Nothing compares to Spieth in 2016

No doubt the pre-exchange Norman backers wished they'd hedged their bets and anyone that backed Perry, Campbell, Rory, Oosty, Day, Rose or Molinari without laying any back will be rueing their decision, but their pain pails into insignificance compared to those that backed the defending champ, Jordan Spieth, without trading any back in 2016.

I took a detailed look at that year's renewal a couple of years ago here but to cut a long and painful story short for Spieth backers that didn't press the little pink lay button, Spieth hit a low of 1.091/11 when he led by five at the turn and more than £1m was matched at 1.121/8 and below before he played holes 10, 11 and 12 in six-over-par!

The stats are very clear, since Faldo's victory from off the pace in '89, 27 of the 32 winners have sat first or second with a round to go and 20 winners in-a-row from 1991 sat either first or second.

If your pick is in the final group on Sunday morning you're in with a great chance of collecting.

But if multiple major winners like Norman, McIlroy and Spieth can come a cropper with a big lead on Sunday, anyone can wilt under the pressure and it's always wise to take a bit of profit just in case.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter