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Straight driving essential at Sedgefield
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Players Championship form worth checking out
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Wyndham is great event for longshots
Tournament History
Sam Snead won the first Wyndham Championship in 1938, when it was known as the Greater Greensboro Open, and he won it for the eighth time in 1965 at the age of 52 years, 10 months, and eight days, That still stands as the most wins of a single PGA Tour event and he's still the oldest winner on Tour.
The Wyndham is the last counting event before the FedEx Cup Playoff series begins next week with the FedEx St Jude, so players are looking to finish inside the top-70 on the rankings to secure a place in the field in Memphis next Thursday.
Venue
Sedgefield Country Club, Greensboro, North Carolina
Course Details
Par 70 7,131 yards
Stroke index in 2022 - 69.26
Founded in 1926, the Donald Ross designed Sedgefield Country Club was the event's original venue but between 1977 and 2007 the tournament's permanent home was Forrest Oaks Country Club.
The Wyndham Championship returned to Sedgefield Country Club in 2008 - a year after Kris Spence had restored and lengthened the course so it could stand up to the modern game.
In typical Ross fashion, the greens are smaller than average, undulating and fairly fast, and they're usually set to run at around 12 on the stimpmeter. Since the event returned to Sedgefield, low scores have been the norm.
We've seen four winners, Carl Pettersson, Arjun Atwal, Jim Herman, and Tom Kim in round four last year, all shoot 61 on the way to victory and the 2018 winner, Brandt Snedeker, went two better, firing a 59 on day one.
Changes were made to the greens prior to the 2012 renewal and they're now the same strain of Bermuda (previously bent grass) used at another North Carolina Tour stop, Quail Hollow, but it hasn't made the difference to the scoring that was anticipated.
Patrick Reed's winning score of -14 in 2013 was the highest since the event returned to Sedgefield and 15-under-par was the winning score two years ago but the previous five winners all reached either -21 or -22 and Kim got to -20 last year so it's not a tough track.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 19:00 on Thursday
Last Eight Winners with Exchange Prices
- 2022 - Tom Kim -20 36.035/1
- 2021 - Kevin Kisner -15 (playoff) 60.059/1
- 2020 - Jim Herman -21 1000.0999/1
- 2019 - J.T Poston -22 270.0269/1
- 2018 - Brandt Snedeker -21 32.031/1
- 2017 - Henrik Stenson -22 15.014/1
- 2016 - Si Woo Kim -21 180.0179/1
- 2015 - Davis Love III -17 1000.0999/1
What Will it Take to Win the Wyndham?
Driving Accuracy is most definitely a more important stat than Driving Distance.
The last eight winners here, starting with Davis Love III in 2015, have ranked 32nd, 51st, 71st, 25th, 51st, 51st, 65th and 79th for Driving Distance. This is not a bombers track and is instead a course for the accurate types.
Brand Snedeker won here four years ago with some bizarre stats and there were none stranger than his 51st for Driving Accuracy as finding the fairways at Sedgefield is very often the key to victory.
The rough is awkward to play from and getting within birdie range is nigh on impossible if you stray from the cut and prepared.
The 2021 winner, Kevin Kisner, only ranked 31st for Driving Accuracy but last year's winner, Tom Kim, ranked fourth for DA. The first six players home in 2020 ranked fourth, fifth, first, eighth, 13th and 17th.
In 2019, the first and second, J.T Poston and course-specialist Webb Simpson, ranked second and first for DA and other than Kisner and Snedeker, in the 15 renewals since the event returned to Sedgefield, 16th (Patrick Reed) is the worst any other winner has ranked for Driving Accuracy.
Kim only ranked 16th for Greens In Regulation 12 months ago but seven of the top-12 ranked tied seventh or better for GIR. Eight of the 14 players separated by just two strokes at the top of the leaderboard in 2021 ranked inside the top-14 for Greens In Regulation.
The winner two years ago, Kevin Kisner, only ranked tied eighth but the two winners before him both ranked number one for GIR.
The three winners between 2019 and 2021 had unusually poor Putting Average rankings of 37th, 23rd and 20th . That's a bit odd given this is essentially a birdie-fest.
Kim topped both the PA and Strokes Gained Putting stats last year and the three winners between 2016 and 2018 all ranked second for PA.
For the first seven renewals back at Sedgefield, the number one ranked player on the par fours finished either first or second and that trend was back on the agenda after the 2017 renewal, with Henrik Stenson ranking second for Par 4 Scoring, behind the runner-up, Ollie Schniederjans. Stenson played the par fours in a combined total of -10, Schniederjans played them in an incredible -15.
Snedeker won in 2018 despite only ranking 12th for Par 4 Scoring, Kisner only ranked 14th in 2021 and Kim ranked fourth last year. However, the 2019 and 2020 winners, J.T Poston and Jim Herman, both topped the Par 4 Scoring stats and it's usually the key stat. The best figures to peruse are the Driving Accuracy stats here and the Par 4 Scoring stats here.
Is There an Angle In?
This is the last event of the PGA Tour season before the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin with the FedEx St Jude Championship and that looks like it might offer up a couple of good angles in.
Firstly, those players bobbing around the 70 mark in the FedEx Cup standings (here) often raise their game in order to ensure they qualify. Only last week we saw Lee Hodges jump from 74th to 33rd in the standings with his victory in the 3M Open.
Secondly, the 2020 runner-up, Billy Horschel, and two of the last six winners of the Wyndham, Brandt Snedeker, and Henrik Stenson, have both won the FedEx Cup. Were Horschel, Snedeker and Stenson inspired by former FedEx Cup glory on the eve of a new series?
From a course correlation angle, form at Donald Ross designed tracks tends to cross over well. With that in mind, look at the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club, Aronimink Country Club, which hosted the BMW Championship in 2018, East Lake in Atlanta, home of the Tour Championship and Oak Hill which hosted this year's US PGA Championship.
Away from the Ross designed tracks, form at the Champions Course at the Keene Trace club in Kentucky, which has hosted the last five Barbasol Championships, might be of interest.
In the last five years, Kevin Streelman has finished second and seventh and Horschel has finished second in both events. Herman has won both and Poston should have done. The 2019 Wyndham winner was matched at 1.011/100 to win the Barbasol in 2020 before eventually going down to Seamus Power in extra-time.
If you want a really strong course link you need to head to Florida and to the Pete Dye designed home of the Players Championship, Sawgrass.
The 2021 winner, Kisner, has finished fourth and second at Sawgrass and as many as five of the last 12 Wyndham winners have also won the Players.
I backed Anirban Lahiri at 200.0199/1 last year on the strength of his second at Sawgrass earlier in the year and, although he could only finish tied for eighth, he was matched at a low of 8.07/1 on Saturday so he made for a nice trading vehicle.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
Snedeker was winning the event for a second time five years ago and the 2015 winner, Davis Love III, has won the title three times but this has been a decent tournament for first timer winners of late. Tom Kim got off the mark here last year and seven of the last 14 victors were breaking their duck on the PGA Tour.
Despite his inexperience, Kim was an extremely well-backed 36.035/1 chance, Snedeker was a solid 32.031/1 chance five years ago and Stenson was a well-fancied 15.014/1 favourite in 2017. But Kisner was a 60.059/1 shot two years ago, Herman went off at 1000.0999/1 in 2020 and outsiders have fared really well of late.
Having been matched at a high of 290.0289/1 before the event, Poston was relatively unfancied in 2019 and the four winners before Stenson were also all matched at a triple-figure price before the off.
This is most definitely an event for outsiders - and Herman was the third 1000.0999/1 chance to win in 11 years following Arjun Atwal in 2010 and Davis Love III in 2015.
With length off the tee an irrelevance, this is somewhere the oldies can really shine. As already mentioned, Snead is the oldest ever PGA Tour winner and when Love won here in 2015, he became the third oldest to win on the PGA Tour. Herman was 42 when he lifted the trophy in 2020.
Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four
- 2022 - Tom Kim - tied third, trailing by two (Not available)*
- 2021 - Kevin Kisner - trailing by four 17.016/1
- 2020 - Jim Herman - trailing by four 50.049/1
- 2019 - J.T Poston - trailing by three 40.039/1
- 2018 - Brandt Snedeker led by one stroke 2.111/10
- 2017 - Henrik Stenson led by one stroke 2.8615/8
- 2016 - Si Woo Kim led by two strokes 7.26/1
- 2015 - Davis Love III trailing by four 130.0129/1
*After lots of rain throughout the week, the third round needed to be finished off on Sunday before round four could start. So I don't know what price Kim was between rounds three and four.
In-Play Tactics
Since returning to Sedgefield the in-running stats at the 15 renewals are odd.
We've seen eight 54-hole leaders win but Poston won from three back and, after Kisner's success two years ago, we've had five winners come from four back with a round to go.
In the last 15 years, nobody's won the title having trailed by just a stroke and Kim was the first in all that time to be two back after 54 holes.
Kim was a remarkable winner 12 months ago, given he drifted out to 200.0199/1 after he made a quadruple-bogey at his first hole on Thursday. But he ended up winning the weather-affected renewal by five after a sensational 61 on Sunday, having shot 27 on the front nine.
Market Leaders
There are currently three men vying for favouritism - Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im and Russell Henley.
Matsuyama has a strange record at Sedgefield and he's the one I fancy the least.
He was 15th on debut ten years ago but he missed his next two cuts here and then having finished third in 2016 and 11th on his next visit, in 2018, on the last two occasions he's played here, in 2019 and 2021, he's again failed to make it through to the weekend.
He played superbly in round one of the 3M Open last week, finding fairways and greens with relentless regularity but his putting was frustratingly poor and that's very off-putting for an event of this nature.
Matsuyama ranked 38th for Putting Average and 66th for Strokes Gained Putting last week and no matter how well he plays from tee-to-green, that won't get it done here.
Having sat tied for second after the opening round last week, the Japanese dropped to tied 30th as his poor putting took its toll and I'm more than happy to swerve him here.
Sungjae Im has impressive Sedgefield form figures reading 6-9-24-2 and he traded at odds-on briefly 12 months ago before Tom Kim's crazy finish but he hasn't been at his best of late and he's another I'm happy to leave out.
Since winning in his native Korea back in May, Im has put up form figures reading MC-MC-41-MC-29-24-MC-20-MC and last week's weekend off at the 3M Open, where he failed to break 70 around a very scorable layout, isn't especially encouraging.
There's been plenty of support for course specialist, Russell Henley, and I'm not in the least bit surprised.
Henley has Sedgefield numbers reading 46-MC-31-9-7-5 so after a slow start he's now the man to beat and he really should have this title tucked away already.
Henley held a clear lead after rounds one, two and three in 2021 before falling one short of the six-man playoff when he shot 71 in round four and he finished fifth 12 months ago having sat tied for 23rd after day one.
Henley's straight driving is made for the venue (currently ranks first for DA on the PGA Tour) and if we disregard his missed cut in the Open Championship last time out, he's been in fair form of late, finishing inside the top-20 in five of his eight starts since his excellent fourth in the US Masters.
Selections
Although this has been a great event for outsiders I've had modest wagers on three fancied runners - Henley, the 2016 winner, Si Woo Kim, and the PGA Tour maiden, Denny McCarthy, who has the perfect profile for Sedgefield.
Kim has Sedgefield course form figures that are just too good to ignore. He withdrew from the event 12 months ago but since missing the cut either side of his win here seven years ago, he's finished inside the top-five three times.
Kim missed the cut in the Open last time out and that came off the back of a weekend off at the Travelers Championship but that doesn't unduly worry me.
He's a very in-and-out performer and since winning the Hawaii Open back in January (an event that correlates nicely with this one) he's finished second in the Byron Nelson Championship and fourth at the Memorial Tournament when seemingly out of form.
Denny McCarthy was disappointing when in-contention at the Travelers Championship when a selection for the Find Me a 100 Winner column at the end of June.
He hit a low of 2.942/1 when leading on Friday and he was tied for the lead at halfway with the eventual winner, Keegan Bradley, before falling away to finish seventh but I'm prepared to give him another chance here given he ticks so many boxes.
McCarthy missed the cut in the Open last time out but he finished inside the top-six at the John Deere Classic in his penultimate start and prior to his seventh at the Travelers he was an unlucky loser at the Memorial Tournament.
We've already seen 18 players win on the PGA Tour for a first time this season and McCarthy must be very high up on the list for who's next.
A reasonably straight hitter off the tee and an exceptional putter, McCarthy currently ranks third for Par 4 Scoring and he has Sedgefield form figures reading 36-22-9-15-MC, so his claims are rock solid.
I wanted to back Matsuyama to miss the cut given his strange form figures here and if a market goes up on the Sportsbook and he's trading at in excess of 5/23.50, I will do but while scrolling through the various markets on the Sportsbook, Russell Henley to win Group A caught my eye.
Henley is 9/43.25 to get the better on Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama and the out-of-form Sam Burns and that looks a reasonable price.
I'll be back later on today with the Find Me a 100 Winner column, where I'll have at least three selections.
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter