- Putting and Scrambling the key to success
- Hovland a fair price to emulate Stricker
- Coupled market leaders are value play
- Dahmen and Champ the outside fancies
Tournament History
Fred Funk won the inaugural World Wide Technology Championship (initially called the Mayakoba Golf Classic) in 2007. The first six editions of the event were played in February as an opposite field event to the WGC Match Play before it switched to the November slot nine years ago.
It used to be a fairly weak event, but some big names have started attending and the high-class Norwegian, Viktor Hovland, is attempting to win the tournament for the third year in-a-row.
Venue
El Camaleón Golf Club, Playa del Carmen, México.
Course Details
Par 71, 7, 017 yards
Stroke average in 2021 - 69.1
Designed by Greg Norman and opened in 2004, El Camaleón is described as a 'unique track' that takes in three differing landscapes - tropical jungle, dense mangroves, and oceanfront. There's even a cenote, which is an underground cavern common to the area, in the middle of the first fairway.
It's a wind-affected, coastal track with smaller than average Sea Isle Paspalum greens that will run no faster than 11 on the stimpmeter.
It was the toughest of the eight tracks used on the PGA Tour that measured less than 7,000 yards in 2012, with 11 holes averaging over-par. Having switched to November, and having been played in benign conditions, it's played much easier over the last nine years. Viktor Hovland broke the tournament record when successfully defending the title 12 months ago - amassing a 23-under-par 261 total.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 19:00 on Thursday
Last Seven Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2021 - Viktor Hovland -24 21.020/1
2020 - Viktor Hovland -20 28.027/1
2019 - Brendon Todd -20 110.0109/1
2018 - Matt Kuchar -22 85.084/1
2017 - Patton Kizzire -19 85.084/1
2016 - Pat Perez -21 150.0149/1
2015 - Graeme McDowell -18 40.039/1
What Will it Take to Win the World Wide Technology Championship?
I haven't got any stats for the inaugural event but the 14 winners since have an average Driving Distance ranking of 32.6 and an average Driving Accuracy ranking of 29.13 so stats-wise, what you do off the tee here isn't especially significant, but I'd slightly favour accuracy over length.
Hovland has been excellent from the tee in each of the last two years, ranking eighth for DD and 12th for DA in 2020 and eighth and second 12 months ago but the 2019 winner, Brendon Todd, ranked only 79th for DD, compared to 25th for DA and there are certainly a few holes were an errant drive means big trouble.
Hovland ranked first for Greens In Regulation in 2020 when he missed just 11 all week long and he ranked 5th 12 months ago. Todd ranked third three years ago and that's usually a key stat given seven of the last eight winners have ranked inside the top-11 for GIR.
The runner-up, Carlos Ortiz, was the only man in the field to play the par fours better than Hovland last year but the five previous winners all topped the Par 4 Scoring stats and every winner has ranked inside the top-seven for Par 4 Scoring.
Getting up-and-down had appeared more important than putting in 2019 and 2018. Todd ranked fourth for Scrambling and eighth for Putting Average. Twelve months earlier, four of the top-five ranked fifth or better for Scrambling but Hovland only ranked 70th for Scrambling and he ranked 10th for PA in 2020.
Hovland putted and scrambled far better last year, ranking fourth for PA and fifth for Scrambling. The first four home all ranked inside the top seven for Scrambling so the 2020 result looks like a one-off.
The 2018 winner, Kuchar, only ranked 41st for Putting Average but the two winners before him had a PA ranking of fourth. It would have been nice to see some Strokes Gained Putting stats over the last six years because the three winners before Pat Perez in 2016 all ranked number one for that stat. Unfortunately, they haven't produced any SGP stats for any of the last six editions but a good week with the flat-stick looks essential.
Is There an Angle In?
There are plenty of really strong course correlations to consider here - almost too many!
The only other courses encountered every year on the PGA Tour that now use Paspalum grass are the Grand Reserve Country Club, host of the Puerto Rico Open, and the Corales Golf Club in the Dominican Republic, which hosts the Corales Puntacana Championship. Both correlate nicely.
The 2018 runner-up, Danny Lee, has also finished second in Puerto Rico, the 2011 winner here, Johnson Wagner, finished second in Puerto Rico in 2019 and Hovland has now won at both venues.
The Corales Puntacana Championship has only been a PGA Tour event for five years but the 2015 winner here, Graeme McDowell, won the CPC in 2019, 12 months after Brice Garnett, who was fifth in this event three years ago, had won the first edition on the PGA Tour. Last year's CPC winner, Joel Dahmen, was sixth here three years ago.
The RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Links and the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club are two events well worth considering and so is last week's event - the Bermuda Championship.
Brian Gay, McDowell and Kuchar have all won this event and the RBC. Following Kuchar's win here four years ago, and his victory at the Sony Open in 2019, a feat also achieved by Patton Kizzire the year before, four players have won this event and the Sony Open. Kuchar and Kizzire and Mark Wilson and Johnson Wagner have all won both events.
The 2013 winner, Harris English has a ninth, a fourth and a third placed finish in the Sony and Robert Allenby has finished second in the two tournaments.
There's only been four editions of the Bermuda Championship but Brain Gay and Brendon Todd have both won that event and this one and Danny Lee has finished runner-up in both (as well as the Puerto Rico Open) so that's another one to consider strongly. Sunday's winner of the Bermuda Championship, Seamus Power, finished 11th here last year.
There's also a link between this venue and TPC Southwind. English and Gay have both won at both. Form crosses over well between the two tracks.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
Fred Funk set the tone when he won the inaugural event at the age of 50 and, although Hovland has pulled the average age of the winners down over the last two years, the average age of the winners is still 33.
John Huh, who was 21 in 2012 and Harris English, who was 24 in 2013, are the only other winners under 30. Kuchar, just like the 2016 winner, Pat Perez, had just turned 40 in 2018. Age is no barrier.
Hovland was well backed in each of the last two editions but prior to 2020, fancied players didn't have a great record here and outsiders have fared well.
The 2010 and 2011 winners, Cameron Beckman and Johnson Wagner, were triple-figure priced outsiders, Perez was a 150.0149/1 chance. Todd was generally a 110.0109/1 chance in 2019, but he drifted all the way out to 190.0189/1 on the day before the off, and Kizzire and Kuchar, the two winners before Todd, both went off at around 85.084/1. And although priced in the double-figure bracket, the four winners between and 2012 and 2015 weren't especially well-fancied either.
Kizzire, Brian Gay and John Huh are the only three winners to break their PGA Tour ducks in the event. The majority of winners had already tasted victory. Not surprising given the average age of the winners.
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2021 - Viktor Hovland - Led by two strokes 1.695/7
2020 - Viktor Hovland - solo third, trailing by two 4.77/2
2019 - Brendon Todd led by one stroke *
2018 - Matt Kuchar led by four strokes 1.538/15
2017 - Patton Kizzire led by one stroke *
2016 - Pat Perez 2- trailing by one 5.14/1
2015 - Graeme McDowell T3 - trailing by three 9.617/2
* The 2017 & 2019 editions were interrupted by the weather so there weren't breaks in play in-between rounds three and four. It was therefore not possible to capture the pre-round four prices
In-Play Tactics
Hovland sat tied for fifth and just two off the lead after an opening 67 in 2020, before a 69 in round two saw him slip to eighth, but he sat third after a 63 in round three.
He opened the event last year, as he'd done in 2020, with a four-under-par 67 but that left him tied for 20th. A 65 in round two saw him ease up into third, trailing by three but a third round 62 saw him scoot clear with a round to go.
Todd trailed by just a stroke after round one three years ago and he was third and two back at halfway. But he led through three rounds and the two winners before him, Kuchar and Kizzire, both won wire-to-wire.
Every winner has shot a round in the 60s to kick the event off and, except for Pat Perez seven years ago, every winner has been inside the top-10 at halfway. With the exception of Perez and Hovland in 2020 (who trailed by seven in a tie for eighth) every winner has been no more than four adrift at halfway.
The front-nine, which contains two of the three par fives (holes five and seven) is much easier than the second nine. The short par five 13th is the easiest hole on the course year after year. But the hardest five holes are all on the back nine with holes 16 and 18 ranking as the two hardest 12 months ago.
Market Leaders
This time last year Scottie Scheffler was still in search of his first victory on the PGA Tour. He showed his lack of in-contention prowess here when shooting 70 in round three to fall from second to seventh and from two back to seven adrift. But the course clearly suits his eye. He was 18th on debut in 2019 and fourth last year.
Bizarrely, all four of Scheffler's PGA Tour victories came in the space of less than three months between February and April. He hasn't won since donning the famous Green Jacket at Augusta.
Rory McIlroy replaced Scheffler at the top of the world rankings with his victory at the CJ Cup a fortnight ago so Scheffler won't lack for motivation. But he's not been at his best of late, finishing down the field at the Tour Championship and 45th in the CJ Cup in his last two starts.
Viktor Hovland missed the cut in both 2018 and 2019 but he clearly loves it here. I'm a little surprised he's not heading the market.
His current form is reasonable and in his last two starts he's finished fifth in the Zozo Championship and 21st in the CJ Cup. A bold attempt at achieving the hat-trick can be expected given he won last year despite some rotten luck.
He lent Danny Lee his driver on the range before the event last year as it's fractionally longer than Lee's. The pair were speed training and curious to see if the extra length made a difference, but Lee belted it so hard he broke the club!
With no manufacturers on site, Hovland had a big problem but he eventually managed to borrow a shaft from James Hahn and although it was slightly shorter than his usual one, it didn't stop him.
Hovland's second stroke of misfortune was to hit a greenside sprinkler on the first hole on Friday (his tenth hole of round two). That led to a lost ball after it pinged into the trees and a double-bogey six. Hovland still won by four.
Hovland is bidding to become the first player to win the same event for three years in-a-row since Steve Stricker achieved the feat back in 2011 at the John Deere Classic. So that's a negative. But on the plus side, we've only had six events this season and we've already had two players successfully defend their titles - Max Homa at the Fortinet Championship and Rory McIlroy at the CJ Cup.
Next up is the 2020 Open champion, Collin Morikawa, who hasn't won in almost a year. But he's playing superbly tee-to-green of late and a slight improvement with the putter will see him go close on his tournament debut.
The slower and more unpredictable putting surfaces may also level the playing field. Of the four market leaders, however, Morikawa is the one I fancy the least.
Tony Finau hasn't been sighted since the presidents Cup so this is his first start of the season, but it looks like an ideal place to start.
Finau has course form figures reading 7-MC-16-MC-8-45, he ranked second on Tour for Par 4 performance last season and he he's won the Puerto Rico Open - an event that correlates nicely. He also won back-to-back tournaments as recently as July and he has a huge chance to belatedly kick of the new season with a win.
Selections
Unusually for me I quite like the look of the market leaders here and I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see one of the four mentioned above lift the trophy
The 11/4 on offer with the Sportsbook about one of them obliging in their Big Guns v Field market is more than fair and I was more than happy to start there.
I'll have one or two more with the Find Me a 100 Winner column later today or tomorrow. But in addition to backing the front four in the market at 11/4, I'm also happy to play Joel Dahmen and Cameron Champ, who have both shown signs of late.
Dahmen has current form figures reading 13-37-16 and course numbers of 23-41-6-20-45 and as a winner of the Corales Puntacana, the venue is perfect for him. With his neat and tidy long game set up chance after chance week after week, it's all on whether the putter behaves. If it doesn't, as is more likely, he won't contend, but if it does, he definitely will. At 90.089/1 I was happy to take a chance.
Cameron Champ, who shot 62 here when 10th here in 2018, has telegraphed all three of his PGA Tour wins to date, as well as his victory in the Utah Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2018 so his eighth-place finish at the ZOZO Championship last time out is seriously noteworthy. As is his sixth at the Mexico Open back in May, which followed his 10th in the US Masters.
He's shown an aptitude for the venue, a liking for the region and he's very much a feast or famine golfer. So with three PGA Tour wins from just 98 starts, he needs to be followed when he's signalled his wellbeing.
Selections:
Big Guns v The Field @ 11/4
Joel Dahmen @ 90.089/1
Cameron Champ @ 90.089/1
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter