Holmes was an 85.084/1 chance when he won here in 2014 and Homa and Hahn won here having both been matched at 1000.0999/1 before the off so it's not like we're looking at three well-fancied players winning both events and that looks like a very interesting angle in.
Homa finished second at Riviera this year, two years after he'd won there, and we've seen three men win the Genesis multiple times in the last 15 years. Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott have both won it twice and Bubba Watson three times. Mickelson and Watson have both finished second at Quail Hollow and Scott was third in 2006. It's a solid correlation.
The roll of honour here is a real mixed bag. Major winners David Toms, Vijay Singh, Jim Furyk, Tiger Woods, Lucas Glover, Rory McIlroy and Jason Day have all won the title and we've seen several really top-class winners too but this event has produced four separate results that have had us all scratching our heads.
The 2004 edition saw 200/1 shots Joey Sindelar and Aaron Oberholser playoff to decide the outcome, in 2013, 1000.0999/1 shot, Derek Ernst beat 350.0349/1 chance, David Lynn, in extra time, seven years ago, another player matched at 1000.0999/1 before the off, James Hahn, beat 600.0599/1 shot, Roberto Castro, in a playoff, and as already stated, Homa was 1000.0999/1 when he won here four years ago, with 140.0139/1 shot, Joel Dahman, the only other player to trade at odds-on.
As many as three of the last eight winners have gone off at 1000.0999/1 so if you fancy a rank outsider here, don't be afraid to go for it.
2022 - Played at TPC Potomac2021 - Rory McIlroy tied second, trailing by two 3.55/22020 - Event Cancelled2019 - Max Homa tied for the lead with two others 9.617/22018 - Jason Day led by two 1.8810/112017 - Played at Eagle Point2016 - James Hahn T3rd, trailing by two 16.015/12015 - Rory McIlroy led by four 1.132/15
The 2018 and 2019 winners both sat tied for 17th and just three and four off the lead, they both sat second at halfway, just one off the lead, and they were both in front with a round to go. Homa was tied for the lead with Joel Dahmen and Jason Dufner and Day led by two, but a slow start can definitely be overcome at Quail Hollow...
Thomas sat tied for 44th and six back after round one in the USPGA and he was still five adrift at halfway. Hahn and Castro (first and second in 2016) were five and six back after round one and Hahn still trailed by five in a tie for 13th at halfway. The two winners before Hahn both opened up with 70s and trailed by four and five strokes and yet they won with ease. And one or two winners have come from a very long way back.
Rory McIlroy started slowly two years ago when he won the title for a third time, sitting tied for 73rd and eight off the lead but he was only two back in fifth at halfway and that was a lot closer to the front than when he first took the title.
When he won here 13 years ago having only just made the cut, he sat tied for 48th and nine off the lead at halfway and he still trailed by four after day three but incredibly, he went on to win by four!
A total of 21 men have led or co-led through three rounds here but only seven have gone on to win.
The likes of Phil Mickelson, Nick Watney, Webb Simpson and Zach Johnson have all failed to convert a 54-hole lead. The prize for the worst collapse goes to Sergio Garcia though. He managed to give up a six-stroke lead in 2005 so this is not an easy place to make the running.
If you're trading in-running, watch out for the tough finish. Anyone safely in the house will have an advantage over someone tied with them with 17 and 18 still to play.
Rory McIlroy reached the semi-final stage of the WGC Match Play at the end of March, but he's missed each of his last two stroke play cuts either side of that performance - at the Players Championship and the US Masters - where some of his numbers were uncharacteristically poor. Especially around the green.
With three wins and nine top-20 finishes form ten tournament appearances, Rory's record at Quail Hollow is very strong so this is a great place for him to find his A game but he's too short for me before the off given his current form.
Patrick Cantlay arrives in fine fettle with individual stroke play form figures reading 3-4-19-14-3 since he missed the cut at the Phoenix Open in February. And we can add into the mix a reasonable effort at the WGC Match Play, where he won all his group matches before losing to the eventual winner, Sam Burns, and a reasonable defence of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans alongside Xander Schauffele. The pair finished fourth behind Nick Hardy and Davis Riley.
Much maligned for his deliberate approach, Cantlay has managed to ignore the noise surrounding his pace of play and this is somewhere that really should suit him.
In two appearances in the Wells Fargo here he's missed the cut and finished tied for 33rd but he won three of his four Presidents Cup matches here in September and he was third at Riviera back in February.
Cantlay's Zurich partner, Xander Schauffele, has all the correct credentials. Prior to the Zurich, he finished 10th at the US Masters and fourth in the Heritage, like Cantlay, he won three of his four matches at the Presidents Cup, and he has improving event form figures here reading MC-72-14, suggesting he's warming to the venue, but he doesn't win enough for me to justify odds of around 18/1.
Tony Finau has only ordinary Quail Hollow form, with figures reading 16-28-44-21-60-MC but he's twice finished second at Riviera and he's a different player to the one that teed it up in this event two years ago.
Since then, Tony's won five times on the PGA Tour including last week in Mexico where he ranked first for Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, third for GIR, second for Scrambling and sixth for Putting Average.
Winning back-to-back is always tough but Finau did it with consummate ease last summer when hacking up at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, seven days after lifting the 3M Open trophy, and he's a fair price to repeat the feat here at 18/1 on the Sportsbook's Enhanced Win Only market.
Finau held off the world number one and defending champion, Jon Rahm, in fine style last week in Mexico and he has a habit of holding his form once he's found it.
Selection:Tony Finau @ 18/1 (Sportsbook Enhanced win Only)
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