Tournament History
Having first been staged in the autumn of 2000, as an opposite field event, the Valspar Championship switched to March 15 years ago to become part of the Florida Swing. The 2020 edition was lost to the pandemic and last year's edition was staged in May after the PGA Tour's resumption.
Given its position in the schedule, in-between last week's Players and next week's WGC Match play, it's fairly strong field with five of the world's top-ten in attendance.
Venue
Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbour, Florida
Course Details
Par 71, 7,340 yards, stroke average in 2021 - 70.97
Designed by Larry Packard, Copperhead was opened in 1974. Prior to the establishment of this event the course was restored in 1999 and it underwent a $4.5m restoration after the 2015 renewal.
All the fairways were re-grassed with Celebration Bermuda and the greens re-grassed with Tif Bermuda.
It's a tough, undulating, tree-lined track with many dog-legged fairways. The primary rough exceeded three inches last year, and it will be slightly longer this time around. Water is in play on a number of holes and the greens are usually set to run at around 12.5 on the Stimpmeter.
The four par fives (holes one, five, 11 and 14) were the easiest holes on the course again last year (as they are most years) and the last three holes are tough and known as the Snake Pit...
With water right and trees left, there's no bailout off the tee whatsoever at the par four 16th. It's ranked as the hardest hole on the course in each of the last three editions and it very often has a say in the outcome of the tournament.
The par three 17th is no cakewalk (averaged 3.07 last year) and you need to get your drive away nicely on the tricky 18th, which was the fourth hardest hole on the course ten months ago. The three holes combined averaged 0.37 over-par last year and 0.61 over in 2019.
Copperhead averaged under-par last year (70.97) but that was unusual and due to the event being moved to May. It averaged 71.981 in 2019, which was the highest among all the par 71s in non-majors that season and that was the third time in four seasons that it claimed that distinction.
Prior to the pandemic, Copperhead was the first or second hardest par 71 encountered on the PGA Tour in each of the previous six years.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 11:30 on Thursday (Red Button). Ful coverage begins at 15:30.
Last Six Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2021 - Sam Burns -17 80.079/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Paul Casey -8 34.033/1
2018 - Paul Casey -10 28.027/1
2017 - Adam Hadwin -14 90.089/1
2016 - Charl Schwartzel 48.047/1 (playoff)
2015 - Jordan Spieth 16.015/1 (playoff)
What Will it Take to Win the Valspar Championship?
The last five winners here have averaged 34.2 for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, with three of the five having a negative strokes gained figure, and that tells you all you need to know.
We've seen big and short hitters win here and we've seen straight and wayward winners too.
The driving stats can be largely ignored, and this is a second shot course. Finding the smaller than average greens is usually the key to victory and the last five winners have ranked an average of 6.6 for Strokes Gained on Approach and 4.2 Tee to Green.
Last year's winner, Sam Burns, only ranked 35th for Greens In Regulation and Paul Casey, when winning the title for a first time, only ranked 30th for GIR in 2018 but the next three on the leaderboard ranked tied eighth, tied eighth and tied second for GIR and he ranked a much improved fifth in 2019.
At the 2017 edition, four of the first five home ranked inside the top five for GIR and so far, 13 of the 20 course winners to date have ranked 11th or better for that stat.
Burns putted brilliantly last year, ranking second for putting Average and third for SGP, gaining more than nine strokes on the field. Casey's Putting Average rankings were fifth (2019) and seventh (2018) when he won and the three winners before him had a Putting Average ranking of second. And Retief Goosen (when winning for the second time here in 2009) is the only winner to date that didn't rank inside the top-20 for that stat.
An ability to handle windy conditions is usually an essential prerequisite anywhere in Florida but Friday looks like the only breezy day according to the latest forecast.
Is There an Angle In?
This isn't your typical Florida test so looking at results at other events in the state won't necessarily help but there are a couple of courses that appear to correlate nicely...
John Huston, K.J Choi, Vijay Singh and Jim Furyk have all won both this event and the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. Lots of players have been placed at both events and some have been placed in one and won the other. Last year's Sony winner, Kevin Na, was second here in 2014 and multiple Sony winner, Ernie Els, traded at odds-on to win this one in 2012.
As many as four men have also won this event and the John Deere Classic - Jordan Spieth, John Senden, Sean O'Hair and Vijay Singh, and it should really be five. The 2016 John Deere Classic winner, Ryan Moore, threw this one away seven years ago.
Last year's John Deere winner, Lucas Glover, was fourth here in 2007 and he sat third at halfway in last year's edition. The aforementioned Na and Moore were tied for second.
The 2017 John Deere winner, Bryson DeChambeau, only finished 27th here on debut here four years ago and he withdrew in 2019 on his only other appearance in this event but even he has form at both courses given he won the 2014 All-American Athlete Conference Championship at Copperhead, and I see that Brett Quigley, who never got to win on the PGA Tour, finished second in both events, so that's definitely a tournament to consider.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
Course form stands up well here and in its relatively short history, we've seen three men win the event twice and a number of winners have also finished runner-up.
In addition to Casey, KJ Choi and Retief Goosen have also claimed the prize on multiple occasions and Choi is one of five winners to have also finished second. He finished runner-up behind Jim Furyk in 2010 and Furyk himself subsequently finished second in 2012. O'Hair, Senden (twice) and Singh have all also won the event and finished second and Patrick Reed, who was second to Casey in 2018, has finished runner-up twice.
Overseas players have a strong record and an American has won only eight of the first 19 editions.
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2021 - Sam Burns - tied for the lead 3.814/5
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Paul Casey - led by a stroke 3.55/2
2018 - Paul Casey T11th - trailing by five 120.0119/1
2017 - Adam Hadwin - led by four strokes 1.51/2
2016 - Charl Schwartzel - solo eighth - trailing by five 32.031/1
2015 - Jordan Spieth - solo second - trailing by a stroke 3.185/40
In-Play Tactics
Having trailed by six strokes after round one four years ago, Hadwin hit the front at halfway and he extended his lead to four with a round to go, Casey was in front before round four in 2019, and Burns was tied with Keegan Bradley with a round to go last year but straightforward front-running winners are a rarity here.
Jim Furyk was three clear through 54 holes before winning in 2010 but he's the only other winner to hold a clear lead going in to the final round in the last 15 years and nine of the last 14 winners have come from behind.
Having sat second at halfway, trailing by two behind Corey Conners, Casey began the final day trading at 120.0119/1 in 2018, after a poor back-nine on Saturday had seen him drop outside the top-ten. He missed the last six greens coming in on Sunday but managed to scramble his way in and post a score that nobody else could match. Casey recorded the win having made just 21 putts in round four but he was far from the first winner to come from off the pace...
The 2016 winner, Schwartzel, who was matched in-running at a high of 90.089/1, trailed by four after rounds one and two and he was a 32.031/1 chance on Sunday morning, as he trailed by five. The 2015 winner, Spieth, was matched at a high of 30.029/1 after a slow start in 2015 and the runner-up, Patrick Reed, hit a high of 150.0149/1 after he struggled at the beginning of the week. Spieth sat tied for 38th and five off the lead after round one and Reed trailed by seven in a tie for 80th but as many others have done before them, they were able to make up the lost ground.
Having hit a high of 290.0289/1, Senden was still tied for 35th and fully eight shots back at halfway seven years ago, Mark Calcavecchia, the 2007 winner, was ten back after round one and still six back at halfway and although he was tied for the lead after round three, Streelman was eight behind after day one and still seven behind at halfway eight years ago.
Luke Donald won a four-man playoff here in 2012 and he and his playoff protagonists had all started slowly. They were five, six, six and eight strokes back after round one and still three, three, four and seven back at halfway, so don't give up hope if your picks don't really spark on Thursday or Friday. This is definitely a course where lost ground can be made up over the weekend and where we can expect late drama...
The third round leader in 2016, Bill Haas, was matched at 1.261/4 before getting beat in extra time and the 54-hole leader in 2015, Ryan Moore, still led by three with just six to play but having been matched at just 1.422/5, he played the last half a dozen holes in three-over-par to miss out on the playoff by two strokes so this is clearly not an easy place to get across the line from the front.
Market Leaders
The market is struggling to split the front three - Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa - and I can see why.
Thomas will feel he's due another success given he hasn't won since last year's Players and he put up a bold defence at Sawgrass last week until he found water off the tee on the seventh hole in round three.
Thomas was bidding to be the first ever to defend that title and he lost his way after that but he's in decent form overall given he finished eighth in the Phoenix Open and sixth in the Genesis Invitational in his two previous starts. And with course form figures reading 10-18-MC-13, he has to be respected.
Hovland was also in the mix at Sawgrass and he was matched in-running at a low of 5.49/2 before his challenge derailed at the 12th hole in round four when for the umpteenth time, his poor short game cost him and that would be the worry here.
As brilliant as the Norwegian is, his chipping is very poor and although he finished third here last year on his only previous visit, the fact that he's bound to miss a few of these small greens is a concern.
Morikawa is the weakest of the three in the market and that's not surprising after last week's poor performance at Sawgrass where he comfortably missed the cut.
He will at least be fresh having not had to hang around until late on Monday at Sawgrass but this is Morikawa's first visit to Copperhead.
Selection
I've got a couple of fancies at odds in excess of 100/1 so they'll feature in the Find Me a 100 Winner column tomorrow but for now my only selection is Tyrrell Hatton.
Tyrrell missed the cut here on his only previous visit in 2019 but he shot 69 in round one before a disastrous 81 on Friday saw him miss out on the weekend and he looks primed to win again with 2022 form figures reading 6-4-28-2-13.
He proved two years ago when winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational (second again two weeks ago) that he's more than capable of winning around a tough track and he's putting too well to ignore.
He's a winner in the Sunshine State already and he's proven with his victories in Italy, Turkey and around Wentworth, that he has a penchant for a tree-lined track.
Fellow Englishmen, Paul Casey and Luke Donald, have both won this event and the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth so Hatton wouldn't be setting a precedent.
Hatton's a best priced 25/1 on the High Street so I thought he was a bit big at 32.031/1.
Selection:
Tyrrell Hatton @ 32.031/1
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