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Hot putters likely to contend
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Tournament profile changing
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Trading drama expected on Sunday
Tournament History
Founded as the Insurance City Open in 1952, and formerly known as the Greater Hartford Open, the Travelers Championship has been in existence for more than 70 years.
The tournament was moved to August to accommodate the Olympics in 2016 and in 2020 it followed the Heritage after the disruption to the schedule caused by the pandemic, but in every other year since 2007 it's been played in the week following the US Open.
This event has seen a number of records set lately. It's now 12 years since Patrick Cantlay set the course record with a ten-under-par 60, which is also the lowest round shot by an amateur in a PGA Tour event, in 2014 Kevin Streelman became the first player to birdie the last seven holes to win a PGA Tour event, and Jim Furyk shot the PGA Tour's first ever 58 here in 2016.
Venue
TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Connecticut.
Course Details
Par 70 - 6,852 yards
Stroke Index in 2022 - 69.32
Originally designed by Robert J. Ross and Maurice Kearney in 1928, TPC River Highlands was reworked by Pete Dye in 1982 and again by Bobby Weed in 1989. It's not a particularly strong test and low scores are a common occurrence.
Both the fairways and the smaller than average Poa Annua greens are fairly easy to hit and scoring is always in the double-digits under-par.
Holes 15, 16 and 17, are nicknamed the 'Golden Triangle' and they wind around a lake, creating a dramatic backdrop for what's often a theatrical finish.
At less than 300 yards, the short par four 15th is drivable but it's not a straightforward test and last year it only averaged 3.86. The green has tricky roll-offs and water is in play for anyone straying left. The par three 16th is played back over the water and is tricky (last year averaged 3.09) and the par four 17th hole has water to the right off the tee and approach shots to the green are played back over the lake.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 18:00 on Thursday.
Last Eight Winners with Exchange Prices
- 2022 - Xander Schauffele -19 22.021/1
- .2021 - Harris English -13 50.049/1 (playoff)
- 2020 - Dustin Johnson -19 30.029/1
- 2019 - Chez Reavie -17 80.079/1
- 2018 - Bubba Watson -17 32.031/1
- 2017 - Jordan Spieth -12 (playoff) 11.010/1
- 2016 - Russell Knox -14 60.059/1
- 2015 - Bubba Watson -16 15.014/1 (playoff)
What Will it Take to Win?
I've gone back 10 years to work out the average rankings for the last 10 winners in all the traditional stats and we've also got seven years' worth of Strokes Gained data.
Average Rankings - Last 10 Winners
- Driving Distance - 33.2
- Driving Accuracy - 30.8
- Greens In Regulation - 20.5
- Scrambling - 20.1
- Putting Average - 6.8
- Putts Per Round - 8.4
Average SG Rankings - Last seven Winners
- Off the Tee - 22.28
- Approach - 10.28
- Around the Green - 22.57
- Tee to Green - 3.71
- Putting - 15.4
As Furyk demonstrated in no uncertain terms seven years ago, this is a track that offers up very low scoring and a most winners have a great week with the flatstick.
Last year's winner, Schauffele, ranked fourth for Strokes Gained Putting and although the 2021 winner, Harris English, only ranked 18th for SGP, the man he beat in the playoff, Kramer Hickock, ranked second and the first four in the SGP rankings all finished inside the top-five and ties. The two previous winners ranked 10th and fourth for SGP.
The 2018 and 2019 winners, Jordan Spieth and Bubba Watson only ranked 31st and 22nd respectively for SGP so they bump the average ranking up, but the event is very often just a putting competition.
The myriad of putting stats on the PGA Tour website may help but knowing quite who is going to have a good four days with the flat-stick on any particular week is never easy.
Sahith Theegala, who finished tied second, and Chesson Hadley, who finished fifth, played the par fours in -11 and they were the only two men to play the par fours better than the winner last year. And the beaten playoff protagonist, Kramer Hickock, played the par fours better than anyone else (11-under-par) in 2021. The seven winners between 2014 and 2020 all played the par fours better than anyone else, so the PGA Tour Par 4 Performance stats should be worth a look.
Is a Good Week at the US Open a Plus?
Given this event traditionally follows the US Open, I've looked back at the last 13 years to see how the winners of this event had fared the week before, or even if they'd played in the US Open.
The 2020 edition of Travelers Championship was the first tournament on the PGA Tour that wasn't cancelled or rescheduled following the three-month break due to the pandemic, so it didn't follow the US Open, it followed the second event back after the shutdown, the Heritage, where the winner here, Dustin Johnson, had finished 17th.
And the Travelers followed the US PGA Championship in 2016, where the winner here, Russell Knox, had finished 22nd but in every other year it followed the US Open so here's how the last 13 winners had finished in the US Open, or if they didn't play in the US Open (DNP), how they're figured in the previous start.
- 2010 - Bubba Watson - DNP US Open - 33rd Memorial Tournament
- 2011 - Freddie Jacobson - 14th US Open
- 2012 - Marc Leishman - DNP US Open - 58th Memorial Tournament
- 2013 - Ken Duke - DNP US Open - MC FedEx St Jude Classic
- 2014 - Kevin Streelman - MC US Open
- 2015 - Bubba Watson - MC US Open
- 2016 - Russell Knox - 22nd USPGA Championship
- 2017 - Jordan Spieth - 35th US Open
- 2018 - Bubba Watson - MC US Open
- 2019 - Chez Reavie - 3rd US Open
- 2020 - Dustin Johnson - 17th RBC Heritage
- 2021 - Harris English - 3rd US Open
- 2022 - Xander Schauffele - 14th US Open
Recent history suggests it may be worth playing a high finisher last week if they're a decent price.
Harris English and the 2019 winner, Chez Reavie, both finished third at the US Open before winning here at a juicy price.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
Taking on the fancied ones from the start and building a book from there used to be a great way to trade this tournament but the fields have been getting stronger of late and the profile of the winners has changed as a result. We haven't seen a triple-figure priced winner in eight years now - although 1000.0999/1 chance, Hickock, came very close two years ago. He was matched at a low of 1.11/10 in the playoff.
Historically, outsiders, PGA Tour maidens, and old-timers all have a good record at TPC River Highlands. Despite his strong showing at Pebble Beach the week before, Reavie was an 80.079/1 chance four years ago, Russell Knox went off at around 60.059/1 in 2016 and we've seen a number of really big-priced winners fairly recently.
Kevin Streelman was a 220.0219/1 shot before the get-go nine years ago and 12 months earlier, 45-year-old PGA Tour rookie, Ken Duke, won having been matched at 680.0679/1 before the off!
Most of the winners over the last decade have been prolific types but Reavie in 2019, like the 2014 winner, Streelman, and the 2016 winner, Russell Knox, had won only once before, and six of the eight winners before Streelman were all winning on the PGA Tour for the very first time.
A decade after he'd won the title for a second time, 45-year-old, Stewart Cink, finished tied for second in 2018, Jerry Kelly finished runner-up at the age of 49 seven years ago and five of the last 20 Travelers winners have been over 40.
Had KJ Choi, who traded at just 1.728/11 in 2014, held on, that would have read six from 19, and a number of other vets have come close fairly recently.
At the age of 42, Bubba was matched at a low of 1.528/15 before a poor finish two years ago and when he won here for the first time he beat veterans Scott Verplank and Corey Pavin in a playoff so with a small twist of fate the aged pros could have won seven, eight or even nine of the last 20 renewals.
Schauffele was only 28 when he claimed the title 12 months ago but the four winners before him were no spring chickens. English was 31 when he won in 2021, DJ and Reavie were both 36 and Bubba was 39 when he won this for a third time in 2018. DJ and Bubba have power in abundance, but this short test does give the older guys a chance.
Winner's 54-hole Position and Exchange Price
- 2022 - Xander Schauffele - led by one 2.1211/10
- 2021 - Harris English - tied sixth, trailing by two 15.014/1
- 2020 - Dustin Johnson - solo second, trailing by two 3.185/40
- 2019 - Chez Reavie led by six strokes 1.282/7
- 2018 - Bubba Watson - tied sixth, trailing by six 36.035/1
- 2017 - Jordan Spieth led by a stroke 1.768/11
- 2016 - Russell Knox tied second, trailing by three 6.25/1
- 2015 - Bubba Watson tied second, trailing by a stroke 3.259/4
In-Play Tactics
Although three of the last six winners were leading after 54 holes, being in front here isn't always a plus.
Having led by five at halfway and by a stroke through 54-holes, Schauffele converted thanks mainly to a poor finish by Sahith Theegala. The 10/111.00 pre-event favourite, Jordan Spieth, who'd led by a stroke in 2017, beat Daniel Berger in a playoff thanks to a remarkable bunker shot on the 18th and Reavie successfully converted a six-stroke lead three years later but the third-round leader or co-leader has gone on to win only six times in the last 19 years and Schauffele, Spieth and Reavie are the only three of 15 54-hole leaders or co-leaders to go on to win in the last 11 years.
We nearly always see plenty of drama here and most years we witness at least two or three players trading at long odds-on. Theegala was matched at a low of just 1.341/3 last year and there was even more drama in 2021. Bubba was matched at 1.528/15 and Hickock 1.51/2 before English went on to win - and he was matched at 1.011/100 in regulation play before Hickock birdied the last to take it into extra time!
It's hard to get the job done here and it's a trader's paradise most years.
Paul Casey led by four with a round to go five years ago and he was matched at a low of 1.182/11 in-running before going on to get beat by three. Knox won from three adrift after the clear odds-on leader, Berger, shot a disappointing 74 to finish tied fifth seven years ago but many a winner has come from even further back.
Marc Leishman trailed by six 11 years ago, as did Bubba in 2010, and again five years ago, and the two veterans Watson beat in the playoff 13 years ago (Verplank and Pavin) came from six and eight shots back respectively!
When Brad Faxon won in 2005 he was trailing by 12 at halfway and by seven after three rounds. Phil Mickelson won from five back with a round to go in 2002 and Notah Begay and Woody Austin, like Knox, have both won the event this century from three off the pace. Duke sat in a tie for 6th and was trailing by two ten years ago and Streelman was four back and trading at 55.054/1 in 2014.
We nearly always get a dramatic tight finish and eight of the last 19 renewals have gone to extra time.
And finally, don't give up if your picks start slowly. Bubba sat tied for 77th and seven off the lead five years ago and DJ came from even further back three years ago. He sat tied for 79th and nine adrift after round one!
Market Leaders
The world number one, Scottie Scheffler, hasn't finished any worse than 12th all year and he arrives at River Highlands with current form figures reading 5-2-3-3-3 but this could be the week that he finally runs out of steam.
He has improving course form figures reading MC-47-13 but given how poorly he's putting and how well you usually need to putt to contend here, it's hard to see him winning unless something changes dramatically.
After ranking 70th and 65th for Strokes Gained Putting in his two previous starts, he did at least post a positive figure for the week at the US Open last week (1.2), but he still only ranked 37th for SGP when finishing third to Wyndham Clark and that simply isn't going to get it done here.
The worst anyone inside the top-seven ranked here 12 months was 16th (Sahith Theegala) and he had a positive figure of 4.19.
Jon Rahm has course form figures reading 64-25-37 but those first two appearances were a long time ago now.
The world number two played here for two years in-row in 2015 and 2016 and this is his first trip back since 2020.
He hasn't been at his best since winning the US Masters, but he signed off the US Open with a five-under-par 65 to climb up into the top-ten and he looks nicely priced compared to Scheffler.
It's now 12 years since Patrick Cantlay shot 60 in round two here when still an amateur and although he clearly likes the venue, in eight previous visits, he's yet to record a top-ten finish.
Cantlay put in another decent performance last week finishing 14th in the US Open after a poor start to the event (three-over-par after 16 holes in round one) but it's now nearly two years since his last win and I'm happy to swerve him.
Rory McIlroy has current form figures reading 7-7-9-2 and course form numbers reading 17-12-11-19 so it's not difficult to make a case for him but after the disappointment of Sunday's second at the US Open, he's another I'm more than happy to swerve.
That was the third tournament in-a-row that he'd gone into Sunday with a great chance to win and he may well be mentally drained.
Selection
I was attempting to back Tom Kim at 60.059/1, rather than take the 55.054/1 available last night and first thing this morning so I'm kicking myself for being so greedy now he's trading at just 40.039/1.
The 20-year-old's form took a big upturn last week and with hindsight, not taking the 55.054/1 was just daft but I'm happy to leave him at 40.039/1.
I'll have at least three selections in this event for the Find Me a 100 Winner column, which I'll publish later today or first thing tomorrow but for now I've got just one pick - the 2021 winner, Harris English, who finished alongside Kim in a tie for eighth last week.
English sat fifth and four off the lead with a round to go at last week's US Open, but he was out of the reckoning after a double-bogey six at the second hole.
He dropped another shot at the fifth so did ok after that to post a two-over par 72 to finish tied eighth and given how much of an advantage the bigger hitters enjoyed with the wide fairways at Los Angeles Country Club, that was a very respectable finish for the 33-year-old.
English will need to lift himself after Sunday's disappointment, but he comes across as just about the most chilled player on the circuit and he'll relish a return to a shorter track where he's already tasted success.
English ranked number one for Strokes Gained Putting at LACC last week and he looks very fairly priced at 85.084/1.
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter