Tour Championship: Last week's winner, Keegan Bradley, one of three bets at East Lake

• GIR the key stat at East Lake

• Read Dave Tindall's Tour Championship tips here

• Read my British Masters preview here

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Tournament History

Tom Watson won the first edition of the Tour Championship, back in 1987, when it was known as the Nabisco Championship.

Originally played in November, it was designed as a showcase event to round off the PGA Tour season with only the top 30 on the money list in attendance and the event saw its fair share of drama. The four editions that followed Watson's inaugural victory all went to a playoff and some stellar names are on the trophy but at the turn of the century, getting the very best in the world to turn up was proving difficult, if not impossible.

The majors were all done and dusted, and the game's stars felt it was wind down time so something had to be done to revive the tournament as it was starting to look a bit farcical. Having an event to showcase the year's stars when the stars weren't willing to line-up was a problem that needed solving and so the FedEx Cup Playoff Series was born.

First staged in 2007, the FedEx Cup Playoff Series consisted of four events initially and after the introduction of a rest week, it ran over five weeks but it was all change four years ago when the Dell Technologies Championship was done away with and so too was the week off.

The top-70 in the standings played in FedEx St Jude Championship two weeks ago and the top-50 battled it out for a place in the top-30, and a place in the field here, at the BMW Championship last week. What previously took five weeks and four events, now takes three weeks and three events.

After the first two FedEx Cup Series' turned into damp squibs, with Tiger Woods in 2007 and VJ Singh in 2008 entering the Tour Championship with unassailable leads, the format was tweaked for the first time to make it more competitive. The scores were reset before the Tour Championship and if any of the top-five in the standings won the Tour Championship, they'd also win the FedEx Cup. It was a little more complicated for those ranked 6-30 but they could still win the FedEx Cup if others above them performed poorly.

The changes made had the desired effect and from 2009, seven of the first eight Tour Championship winners also won the FedEx Cup but in 2017 and 2018, Xander Schauffele and Tiger Woods, like the 2009 winner, Phil Mickelson, didn't and that's something that the sponsors weren't happy about, so we now have the unfamiliar set up detailed below.

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Tour Championship Format

Since 2019 the Tour Championship has become a handicapped event with the leader in the standings after the first two events beginning this week's decider leading by two on -10. The scores are staggered below that, as detailed below.

Scottie Scheffler, the number one ranked player in the FedEx Cup Standings, will begin the event on -10, the second in the standings, Xander Schauffele, begins on -8, the third, Hideki Matsuyama, -7, the fourth, last week's BMW Championship winner, Keegan Bradley, -6 and the fifth, Ludwig Aberg, -5.

After that, those ranked sixth to 10^th will begin the Tour Championship on -4, 11^th to 15^th will start on -3, 16^th to 20^th -2, 21^st to 25^th will begin on -1 and the remaining five will start on level-par.

The field (and leaderboard) is set for @TOURChamp. pic.twitter.com/8i77LoQJq3

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 26, 2024

I must confess, I'm not a fan of this format but it looks like it's here to stay.

Rory McIlroy has come from behind to win two of the five Tour Championship since the format change and on both occasions he's shot the lowest gross score too. And Viktor Hovland shot the lowest 72-hole total when overhauling the leader going into the event, Scottie Scheffler, 12 months ago. Hovland began the week in second on -8 and two behind Scheffler, but Xander Schauffele shot the lowest 72-hole total for the week in 2020 but didn't win the tournament. Jon Rahm and Kevin Na shot the lowest gross total in 2021 but Patrick Cantlay, who had started the event with the handicap lead, won the Tour Championship.

It is what it is, but it still doesn't sit comfortably with me that someone can compete over four days and outscore his opponents but not win the trophy.

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First 17 FedEx Cup Winners

2007 - Tiger Woods
2008 - Vijay Singh
2009 - Tiger Woods
2010 - Jim Furyk
2011 - Bill Haas
2012 - Brandt Snedeker
2013 - Henrik Stenson
2014 - Billy Horschel
2015 - Jordan Spieth
2016 - Rory McIlroy
2017 - Justin Thomas
2018 - Justin Rose
2019 - Rory McIlroy
2020 - Dustin Johnson
2021 - Patrick Cantlay
2022 - Rory McIlroy
2023 - Viktor Hovland

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Venue

East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta, Georgia

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Course Details

Par 70, 7,490 yards
Stroke index in 2023- 68.76

Dating back to 1904, East Lake has been remodelled by some renowned architects over the years. In 1913 Donald Ross completely reworked the course and then George Cobb tinkered with the place before the 1963 Ryder Cup. The club was neglected after that though, when the majority of its members switched to nearby Atlanta Athletic Club, but it was restored once again in 1994 by Rees Jones and it's been altered again since last year's edition.

With the use of an aerial photograph from 1949, Andrew Green has restored East Lake, combining elements of the original Donald Ross design with exciting new changes that reflect the modern game.

Every tee, green, fairway and bunker has been rebuilt. Fairways have been converted from Meyer Zoysia to Zorro Zoysia and in some cases, they've been reshaped to encourage more movement on the ground.

The greens have been reshaped to imitate the original designer's intent and converted from Mini Verde Bermudagrass to TifEagle.

Since last year's @TOURChamp, East Lake Golf Club has gone through a complete restoration, led by renowned course designer Andrew Green.

(Presented by @Accenture) pic.twitter.com/28kel6s6FP

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 26, 2024

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 16:15 on Thursday

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Last Eight Winners with Handicap Start and Prices

2023 - Viktor Hovland (-8) -27 6.86/1
2022 - Rory McIlroy (-4) -21 10.09/1
2021 - Patrick Cantlay (-10) -21 5.14/1
2020 - Dustin Johnson -21 (-10) 3.211/5
2019 - Rory McIlroy -18 (-5) 9.89/1
2018 - Tiger Woods -11 13.5
2017 - Xander Schauffele -12 120.0119/1
2016 - Rory McIlroy -12 8.415/2

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What Will it Take to Win?

Accuracy off the tee is usually slightly more important than power here, although neither stat is of vital importance.

The first two home 12 months ago, Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele, ranked third and first for Putting Average and Rory McIlroy ranked first for PA when he won two years ago.

He also ranked second when winning five years ago and Tiger Woods topped the PA stats a year earlier, but Patrick Cantlay only ranked 13^th when he won in 2021 so a hot putter isn't absolutely essential and the main stat to concentrate on at East Lake has always been Greens In Regulation.

Hovland ranked first last year, the first two home ranked fourth and first in 2022 and the first six on the leaderboard in 2021 ranked tied first, seventh, eighth, 13^th, third, and tied first. The top-six all ranked tied fifth or better in 2020 and seven of the top eight in 2019 ranked inside the top-eight for GIR.

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Is There an Angle In?

From a course correlation angle, form at Donald Ross designed tracks tends to cross over well so check out the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club, Aronimink Country Club, which hosted a now defunct event called The National way back in both 2010 and 2011 as well as the BMW Championship in 2018, last year's US PGA Championship venue, Oak Hill, and Sedgefield Country Club, home of the Wyndham Championship.

Now that this venue and Sedgefield Country Club, both have Bermuda greens, form at the two events should crossover very nicely and that's been the case over the last decade or so.

East Lake specialists, Justin Rose and Adam Scott, as well as Kevin Na, who along with Jon Rahm, shot the lowest 72-hole score in 2022 all contended at Sedgefield in 2021.

The 2015 winner of this event, Jordan Spieth, was beaten in a playoff at the Wyndham, Webb Simpson, who finished fourth in 2013 and 2018, is a former winner of the event and in 2012, three of the first five home here had all previously won the Wyndham. And Luke Donald, who finished third, finished runner-up in the Wyndham seven years ago.

The 2017 Wyndham winner, Henrik Stenson, won here in 2013, the Wyndham's first and fourth in 2018, Brandt Snedeker and Jim Furyk, won this event in 2012 and 2010 and Billy Horschel, who has a first and a second here, was second in the Wyndham in 2020 and he contended again there this year.

If all that wasn't enough, to cement the correlation even further - check out the result of the 2015 renewal of the Wyndham Championship... The 2008 Tour Championship winner, Camilo Villegas, beat the 2011 winner, Bill Haas.

Kevin Na, along with Jon Rahm, posted the lowest 72-hole total in 2021 at a huge price having just finished tied second in the Wyndham and Sungjae Im emulated him two years ago finishing second here after finishing runner-up in the Wyndham Championship a month earlier.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Last year's winner, Hovland, and the 2021 winner, Patrick Cantlay, had both won the BMW Championship the week before and in nine of the previous 11 years, and on a staggering 12 occasions in total, someone has won two FedEx Cup Playoff events.

In addition to Cantlay and Hovland, Tiger Woods (2007), Camilo Villegas (2008) and Billy Horschel (2014), have all won the last two events.

Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy are the only two to have won the FedEx Cup more than once but neither achieved the feat back-to-back.

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Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Viktor Hovland - led by six 1.132/15
2022 - Rory McIlroy - T2 - trailing by six 11.521/2
2021 - Patrick Cantlay - led by two 1.834/5
2020 - Dustin Johnson - led by five strokes 1.292/7
2019 - Rory McIlroy T2 - trailing by one 3.7511/4
2018 - Tiger Woods - led by three strokes 1.664/6
2017 - Xander Schauffele - T2 - trailing by two 6.611/2
2016 - Rory McIlroy - T3 - trailing by two 4.47/2

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In-Play Tactics

The 2022 edition of this event was bizarre. Having been matched at a low of just 1.132/15, and following a weather delay on Saturday, Scottie Scheffler returned to the course on Sunday morning and finished round three by birdying four of his remaining six holes. He led by six with a round to go but a three-over-par 73 in round four opened the door for McIlroy and his four-under-par 66 saw him win by one but the other four renewals with the handicap system in place have produced really dull finishes.

Rory McIlroy never looked like losing five years ago, Dustin Johnson won cosily in the end in 2020, after a little wobble on the front-nine on Sunday, the 2021 event was a two-man race between Jon Rahm and the winner, Cantlay, for the entirety of the weekend and last year's renewal was done and dusted after 54 holes.

Hovland led by six after three rounds and he went on to win by five.

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Market Leaders

Given Scottie Scheffler has a 50% strike rate since the beginning of March, winning seven of the 14 events he's played in, an argument can certainly be made about taking the odds-against about him given he gets a start from everyone else, but course specialist, Xander Schauffele, is his closest challenger and that muddies the water considerably.

Although neither man particularly impressed at Castle Pines last week, finishing 33^rd (Sheffler) and fifth, given Hideki Matsuyama withdrew in Colorado with a lower back injury, it's difficult to make a strong case for taking the world's best on.

Schauffele has an incredibly good record at East Lake and if forced to pick between the two, I'd plump for him but I'm happy to swerve the pair before the off given the prohibitive odds.

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Selections

I'm by no means a fan of this format and stakes are modest, but I've backed last week's winner, Keegan Bradley, who bids to become the third BMW Championship winner in four years to double up in this event and I'm also happy to chance Wyndham Clark modestly at a big price.

Bradley only trails by four and although he's never fared brilliantly here, he won the first of his two BMW titles at the Ross designed Aronimink back in 2018. The US Ryder Cup captain will feel as though he has absolutely nothing to lose this week and I thought 50.049/1 was fair.

Wyndham Clark has been playing some quite incredible golf at times of late and he was third here on debut 12 months ago, having started the week in tied sixth last year too.

Capable of some ridiculously low scores, he looks fractionally over-priced at 65.064/1.

In addition to backing Bradley and Clark in the outright market on the Exchange, I was also happy to chance the recent Wyndham Championship winner, Aaron Rai at an industry-wide best of 50/151.00 with the Sportsbook in the Lowest 72 Hole Score (Excluding Handicap) market.

Trailing the best players on the planet by ten and eight strokes respectively, Rai has effectively no chance of winning the Tour Championship but he should take to the venue given how well Sedgefield form holds up at East Lake.

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Now read my British Masters preview here

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*You can follow me at @SteveThePunter

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