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Leader looks vulnerable
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Early start for round four in Florida
10:30 - March 16, 2025
The likes of Collin Morikawa, Min Woo Lee and Tommy Fleetwood appear to have played their way out of this year's Players Championship with poor third rounds in blustery conditions and having been matched at just 4.3100/30 after a great start to round three, and having trailed by just a stroke when he birdied the 12th hole, Will Zalatoris played his last five holes in nine-over-par to tumble out of contention completely. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:20.
JJ Spaun -12 3.259/4
Bud Cauley -9 6.86/1
Lucas Glover -9 13.012/1
Alex Smalley -9 17.533/2
Rory McIlroy -8 8.27/1
Correy Connors -8 17.016/1
Akshay Bhatia -8 20.019/1
Sepp Straka -7 25.024/1
Patrick Cantlay -7 27.026/1
Jake Knapp -7 55.054/1
Stephan Jaeger -7 70.069/1
Max McGreevy -7 70.069/1
Danny Walker -7 160.0159/1
JT Poston -6 100.099/1
Ryan Gerard -6 260.0259/1
Scottie Scheffler -5 44.043/1
Robert Macintyre -5 180.0179/1
-5 and 240.0239/1
JJ Spaun scrapped magnificently in the tough conditions yesterday and he signed the day off with a par save at the 18th from 24 feet but whether he can kick on and win today is highly debatable.
In the previous 51 renewals of the Players Championship, only 21 third round leaders have gone on to win so out in front is clearly a tough place to be at Sawgrass and the last nine players to lead by a stroke have all been beaten. And that includes last year's leader, the two-time major winner, Xander Schauffele.
Add into the equation that the 34-year-old Californian has only won once before on the PGA Tour, at the 2022 Texas Open, and that he was a bit wobbly on the back nine at the Sony Open in January, where he finished third, having led by one with 18 to play, and he's starting to look like an unattractive proposition at around 9/43.25.
On his 35th birthday, Bud Cauley is the only man within three of Spaun and an argument can be made about taking odds of around 6/17.00 about him.
A superb 66 yesterday has given him a fantastic opportunity to get off the mark on the PGA Tour for the first time and he performed admirably on the last occasion he was in-contention with 18 to play, at the Sandersons Farms Championship in October when he shot 67 in round four, having been fourth and four off the lead with a round to go.
The 2009 US Open winner, Lucas Glover, has plenty of experience and at 45, he's bidding to become the oldest Players Champion but the biggest danger to the front two is Rory McIlroy, who did well to post +1 yesterday given how poorly he played.
Everything was just off yesterday with the world number two. His driving wasn't close to its best, his chipping around the greens a bit scruffy and he missed too many short putts to put himself in a commanding position with a round to go but his birdie at the 18th will have given him plenty of encouragement.
The blustery conditions could be against Rory, but he impressed in the wind at Pebble in February and chasing from four shots back will suit him but the value with a round to go sits with the consistent Canadian alongside him in a tie for fifth - Corey Connors.
The commentators were a bit critical of his conservative play in round four of the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, where his bogey-free one-under-par 71 on Sunday saw him finish third, but that style of play may just be ideal for today.
He's shortened up a bit this morning, having been available at 19.018/1 last night but he's still a very fair price at around 16/117.00.
With poor weather predicted, the leaders tee-off at 14:01 UK time, so it's a very early start.
06:50 - March 15, 2025
Play was suspended at the Players Championship due to darkness yesterday before the second round could be completed but it's only the final three-ball that didn't quite get done and none of the three are in-the-mix.
Akshay Bhatia and Min Woo Lee are tied at the top on 11-under-par but the big story from round two was the incredible round shot by the 2021 winner, Justin Thomas.
Matched in-running at 1000.0999/1 after a six-over-par 78 on Thursday, Thomas had his work cut out just to make the cut, but after a two at the par three 17th, he stood on the 18th tee having made a record-breaking 11 birdies in one round around Sawgrass to get to 11-under-par for the day and five-under-par for the tournament.
Had Thomas parred the last he would have beaten Tom Hoge's course record of 62 but after finding water with his second shot, he had to settle with a bogey at the 18th hole to tie it.
He will be disappointed by the final hole mishap but trailing by seven, he can't be discounted. Here's the current state of play with prices to back at 6.40.
Akshay Bhatia -11 8.07/1
Min Woo Lee -11 9.417/2
JJ Spaun -10 13.525/2
Rory McIlroy -9 6.05/1
Collin Morikawa -9 6.05/1
Alex Smalley -9 28.027/1
Will Zalatoris -8 24.023/1
Lucas Glover -8 34.033/1
Tommy Fleetwood -7 20.019/1
Jake Knapp -7 65.064/1
Sepp Straka -6 40.039/1
Billy Horschel -6 110.0109/1
Jacob Bridgeman -6 150.0149/1
Harris English -6 170.0169/1
Emiliano Grillo -6 280.0279/1
Scottie Scheffler -5 16.015/1
Patrick Cantlay -5 70.069/1
-5 and 85.084/1
Although trailing by two, Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa are vying for favouritism and of the two, I much prefer the Rory.
The 2019 winner was tied for the lead at halfway before two rounds of 70 saw him take the title after Jon Rahm had collapsed on Sunday six years ago but odds of 5/16.00 fairly reflect his chances here from two adrift.
This is the 35th time he's been two off the lead at halfway in his career and his record is solid.
On the last three occasions he's trailed by two at halfway he's finished second, but he's gone on to win five times (14.7%) so his odds look fair.
Rory was matched at as low as 2.8615/8 when he played his first 11 holes in six-under-par yesterday so his finish to round two was a bit disappointing (played the last seven holes in +2) but the scruffy finish might just inspire him to keep focused in round three.
It's no surprise to see Morikawa on the premises again after his impressive display at Bay Hill last week but he traded at 1.11/10 on Sunday before Russell Henley caught him late on and he's gone from being bombproof in-contention to one to be wary off.
The two leaders are the only other men in the field to be trading at less than 10/111.00 but I'm happy to swerve them both on account of how little course experience they have.
Akshay Bhatia missed the cut on his only previous appearance 12 months ago and after finishing sixth on debut in 2023, Lee finished 54th last year.
Although five of the last 12 winners were leading or tied for the lead at halfway, being up with the pace at this stage is far from imperative at Sawgrass.
With Wyndham Clark leading the field by four, Scottie Scheffler sat tied for sixth and six off the lead after 36 holes when defending the title last year and he was two back at halfway when winning for the first time in 2023.
Cam Smith sat tied for 11th and three adrift in 2022, Justin Thomas was tied for 22nd and seven back four years ago and Si Woo Kim was 16th and six off the lead in 2017 before he went on to win by three.
And if we go a little further back, K.J Choi sat outside the top 10 and four off the lead when winning in 2011, a year after Tim Clark won having sat tied for 23rd and seven off the lead.
I'm happy to play Rory at the price but given the stats, I'm also chancing a couple just off the pace at big prices - Florida native, Billy Horschel and the recent Farmers Insurance Open winner, Harris English - who both look generously priced at triple-figure prices.
10:30 - March 14, 2025
As is the norm on the PGA Tour, play was suspended due to darkness before the opening round of the Players Championship could be completed and Max McGreevy has a 16-foot birdie putt on the par three 17th to join the three leaders - Lucas Glover, JJ Spaun and Camilo Villegas - but he's the only player yet to complete round one that's anywhere close to the lead.
An early start on day one has been advantageous over the years here and only three of the last 18 winners have been drawn in the afternoon on day one but for the second year in-a-row, the PM starters on Thursday are going to average less than the early starters.
Scottie Scheffler became the first player to defend the title 12 months ago and he was the first winner to be drawn in the afternoon on day one in 10 years but it's odds-on this year's winner will have also been drawn PM-AM.
The afternoon starters averaged 0.97 of a stroke less than the morning starters last year and this year we're looking at an even bigger differential of around two strokes.
Scheffler, who trails by three after round one, and Rory McIlroy, who's just one off the lead, dominate the market and both started yesterday afternoon.
With as many as 30 players within three of the lead, it's clearly a tough tournament to evaluate but we should probably be concentrating on the leaders if the stats can be believed.
As many as three of the last 10 winners - Webb Simpson, Jason Day, and Martin Kaymer - have won wire-to-wire and in the previous 51 renewals, 15 winners have been leading after round one, 24 have been positioned inside the top three places after day one and 22 winners have either been leading or only one off the pace after round one.
That's a good omen for Rory and he's a tempting price at around 6/17.00 but I've backed a trio of longshots slightly further down the leaderboard - Robert MacIntyre and Austin Eckroat, who are alongside Scheffler in a tie for 20th and three off the lead, and Argentina's Emiliano Grillo, who sits in a tie for ninth and two off the lead.
McIntyre and Eckroat were on my radar before the off and Grillo's stats suggest he's playing remarkably well.
He was sat fifth here with a round to go on his second visit in 2017 when he eventually finished 11th so he has some previous at the track and if his putter warms up, he looks a very big price at 200.0199/1.
Grillo ranked fourth for Driving Accuracy yesterday, first for both Greens In Regulation and Scrambling and third for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green but only 93rd for Putting Average and 73rd for Strokes Gained: Putting.
Pre-Event Pick:
Keegan Bradley @ 70.069/1
In-Play Picks:
Robert Macintyre @ 55.054/1
Austin Eckroat @ 100.099/1
Emiliano Grillo @ 200.0199/1
Rory McIlroy @ 6.05/1
Billy Horschel @ 120.0119/1
Harris English @ 160.0159/1
Corey Connors @ 18.535/2