The Punter's In-Play Blog: Big outsiders chanced at Scottsdale

12:40 - February 13, 2022

Despite a double-bogey six at the second hole yesterday, tournament invite, Sahith Theegala, still shows the way at the WM Phoenix Open. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 12:30.

Sahith Theegala -14 7.613/2
Brooks Koepka -13 5.14/1
Patrick Cantlay -12 7.26/1
Xander Schauffele -12 8.615/2
Scottie Scheffler -12 8.88/1
Hideki Matsuyama -11 13.012/1
Talor Gooch -12 14.527/2
Max Homa -11 27.026/1
Tom Hoge -11 36.035/1
Alex Noren -11 42.041/1
Adam Hadwin -11 46.045/1
Garrick Higgo -10 95.094/1
-9 and 120.0119/1 bar

Theegala bounced back brilliantly after his early stumble yesterday but it's still difficult to see him winning.

As highlighted yesterday, he led by a stroke with a round to go at the Sanderson Farms Championship in October but a disappointing 71 on Sunday saw him slip to a tie for eighth and while there's every chance he'll have learnt plenty from the experience and he'll improve on that performance, 54-hole leaders have a woeful record here.

Only two of the last 12 third round leaders or co-leaders have gone on to win and they were both clear of the field. Phil Mickelson cruised home after being six clear in 2013 and Rickie Fowler held on three years ago, having led by four, but he needed help to get across the line.

Fowler double-bogeyed the fifth, tripled the 11th and bogeyed the 12th and Branden Grace looked set to win until he found water off the 17th tee.

Drama is almost guaranteed and off the pace winners are fairly common. Hunter Mahan in 2010 and Hideki Matsuyama in 2017 were both four back through 54 holes, Koepka trailed by five with a round to go before winning the second of his two titles 12 months ago and Kyle Stanley won here ten years ago having trailed by eight with a round to go!

Although it's hard to imagine that one of the top-12 doesn't go low enough to win, the winner may not even be listed above and playing a few huge outsiders trailing by five or six strokes may pay dividends.

James Hahn began the final round alongside Koepka and five behind the co-leaders, Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth last year but after birdying six of the first ten holes, he went to the 11th tee leading by three and trading at even money, having began the day trading at 150.0149/1.

Having backed Koepka yesterday and Hideki Matsuyama before the off, I've got a couple of the main contenders onside and I'm happy to stick with those two without backing any of the other frontrunners.

Schauffele hasn't won for more than three years now and he often performs poorly in-contention, Patrick Cantlay was disappointing at Pebble Beach last week, and he's another I'm never in a hurry to side with, while Scottie Scheffler is still in search of his maiden win.

Talor Gooch, Max Homa and Tom Hoge all have recent wins to draw upon and they're all nicely positioned to make a move but the three I've added this morning are all tied for 13th and trailing by five...

Having begun the final round trailing by six, Bubba Watson was matched at a low 1.071/14 last Sunday at the Saudi International before Harold Varner III finished birdie-eagle to beat him by stroke. He has a great bank of form at TPC Scottsdale and he's already won twice on the PGA Tour when trailing by six with a round to go.

Louis Oosthuizen was third here on debut and 11th last year but he finished poorly having looked like having a great chance early on in round four. Having begun the day in a tie for fifth, he was matched at just 7.06/1 after birdying the second and third holes but he lost his way after that. He has the class to go super low and he'll be suited by coming from off the pace.

And finally, I've also thrown a few pounds on the streaky Patton Kizzire at a monster price.

16:10 - February 12, 2022

Having led after rounds one and two and having led by three at the halfway stage, Ryan Fox began his third round at the Ras al Khaimah Classic with four consecutive birdies to shoot clear of the field.

There were dropped shots at the 9th and the 12th but he birdied three of the last six and he'll begin tomorrow's fourth and final round with a six- stroke lead. Here's the latest standings with prices to back at 16:00.

Ryan Fox -19 1.422/5
Adrian Meron -13 18.017/1
Adri Arnaus -13 19.018/1
Scott Jamieson -13 29.028/1
Pablo Larrazabal -13 29.028/1
Robert MacIntyre -12 42.041/1
Masahiro Kawamura -12 65.064/1
Marcel Siem -12 85.084/1
-11 and 100.099/1 bar

It's a bit of a shame that Fox has excelled, or we'd be assessing a very bunched leaderboard. Fox is six clear but only two strokes separate the next 15 players.

Fox is most definitely the one they all have to beat and if he can edge it round in two or three under par tomorrow it should be enough.

Since 1996, we've seen 20 players enter the final round of a DP World Tour event with a six-stroke lead and 17 of them have gone on to win suggesting the 1.422/5 available for Fox is more than fair.

The last man to convert a six-shot lead was Nacho Elvira at the Cazoo Open in July but he nearly messed it up, eventually winning a playoff after shooting 71 in round four, and the last man to get beat having led by half a dozen is Martin Kaymer. He finished third at the Abu Dhabi Championship in 2015 and he's never got over it.

Fox is a fair price for anyone that doesn't mind backing a long odds-on shot but I'm happy to leave the event alone. Robert MacIntyre at 40.039/1 plus would be my idea of the best alternative but it really is difficult to envisage anything but a win for Fox.

I'll be back tomorrow with a look at the Waste Management Phoenix Open after round three.

07:35 - February 12, 2022

As suspected, Sahith Theegala did bogey the eighth hole, his 17th of round one, when he returned to TPC Scottsdale yesterday morning, but it didn't stop him from having a fantastic Friday.

The 24-year-old tournament invite parred the ninth to post an opening five-under-par 66 before hitting a sensational seven-under-par 64 in round two of the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and having slept on the lead on Thursday night, he'll wake up on Saturday two clear of defending champion, Brooks Koepka, and the Olympic champion, Xander Schauffele, with world number four, Patrick Cantlay, three back and alone in fourth. Here's the latest standings with prices to back at 7:30.

Sahith Theegala -12 10.09/1
Xander Schauffele -10 5.85/1
Brooks Koepka -10 6.05/1
Patrick Cantlay -9 6.86/1
Max Homa -8 25.024/1
Talor Gooch -8 26.025/1
Adam Hadwin -8 46.045/1
-7 and 25.024/1 bar

This is only Theegala's 24th start on the PGA Tour but it's already the second time he's led through 36 holes. Theegala was tied for the lead with Nick Watney at the halfway stage of the Sanderson Farms Championship in October and he led by one with a round to go before a disappointing 71 on Sunday saw him slip to a tie for eighth.

This is Theegala's first visit to TPC Scottsdale so although he's clearly taken to the course, that might count against him over the weekend as pin placements change and conditions alter slightly. As impressive as he's been to this point, with such a stacked leaderboard behind him, it's hard to envisage him winning. Especially when we consider the poor record of 36-hole leaders here.

Since Mark Calcavecchia converted a five stroke halfway lead 21 years ago to claim his third title, we've seen as many as 30 players lead or co-lead through 36 holes and only four went on to win. Tournament specialists, JB Holmes, Rickie Fowler and Phil Mickelson (twice).

The current favourite, Xander Schauffele, led by a stroke at this stage 12 months ago but he finished the week in a tie for second, beaten a stroke by the man currently alongside him, Brooks Koepka, who's in search of his third tournament victory.

Of the two market leaders, I'd much rather side with Brooks at a fraction bigger. He's far more ruthless than Xander but they're all vulnerable to an off the pace winner here.

When Koepka won the first of his two titles, in 2015, he sat tied for 20th and seven off the lead at this stage and he was four adrift and tied for eighth 12 months ago.

The playoff protagonists in 2020, Webb Simpson and Tony Finau, were five and six strokes off the lead through two rounds and Hunter Mahan won here in 2010 having sat tied for 54th at halfway!

Yesterday's in-play picks were poor. Gary Woodland has missed the cut and Jordan Spieth sits tied for 44th and fully nine off the lead but unperturbed, I'm happy to go in again and play Koepka at 6.05/1.

The defending champ's irons are dialled in (ranks first for Greens In Regulation), he's closer than he was at this stage when winning either of his first two titles here and I'm always keen to oppose Schauffele and Cantlay in contention.

21:45 - February 11, 2022

Last week's first and second, Nicolai Hojgaard and Jordan Smith, went off first and second favourites for this week's Ras al Khaimah Classic, but the 20-year-old Dane has missed the cut and Smith needs a miracle if he's to win. The Englishman trails the leader, Ryan Fox, by nine. Here's the 36 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 21:40.

Ryan Fox -12 4.94/1
Justin Harding -9 13.012/1
Francesco Laporta -9 20.019/1
Pablo Larrazabal -9 21.020/1
Oliver Bekker -9 23.022/1
Jason Scrivener -9 32.031/1
Zander Lombard -9 36.035/1
Robert MacIntyre -8 17.016/1
Alexander Bjork -8 29.028/1
Masahiro Kawamura -8 42.041/1
Connor Syme -8 50.049/1
Maximilian Kieffer -8 85.084/1
Shergo A Kurdi -8 480.0479/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -7 21.020/1
Adri Arnaus -7 25.024/1
-7 and 36.035/1

Ryan Fox will have been on plenty of people's shortlists. We saw last week that the big hitters are advantaged at Al Hamra and the New Zealander is monstrously long off the tee. He might just take some stopping.

Fox has only won once on the DP World Tour, down in Australia at the now defunct World Super 6 Perth, but he's also won two Challenge Tour events, as well as a couple of PGA Tour of Australia tournaments, so there's no reason to think he can't kick on from here and win.

Fox has converted three of eight halfway leads previously and three-stroke 36-hole leaders on the DP World Tour have a 42% strike-rate since 1996, so at almost 4/1, Fox looks a reasonable price at first glance but it's so incredibly bunched behind him that he'll need to go low tomorrow to stay in front.

There are as many as 29 players within five strokes of Fox and the event is absolutely wide open.

Although he's one of a bunch of 16 players that are five back on -7, Nicolai's brother, Rasmus, is an obvious threat but he's been very well backed since he finished his second round and he looks fractionally short at around 22.021/1.

I was also tempted by Jason Scrivener at around 30.029/1 (tied for second and three back ) and Laurie Canter, who's alongside Rasmus Hojgaard on -7, at getting on for 40.039/1, but after much deliberation I've decided to leave the event alone for now and to take another look after round three.

I'll be back at some stage tomorrow with a look at the Waste Management Phoenix Open at halfway.

11:10 - February 11, 2022

The second round of the Ras al Khaimah Classic is underway and currently live on Sky and the afternoon starters are in pursuit of New Zealander, Ryan Fox.

The pre-tournament 50.049/1 chance backed up yesterday's opening 63 with a solid enough three-under-par 69 and I'll be back this evening with a more detailed look at halfway.

Over on the PGA Tour, the opening round of the Waste Management Phoenix Open is yet to conclude. Play was suspended due to darkness yesterday with tournament invite, Theegala Sahith, leading on seven-under-par but he has two holes of his opening round still to play and he's odds-on to drop a shot at the par four eighth. Having found a fairway bunker off the tee, the 24-year-old Californian has 16 feet left for par.

Last year's runner-up, K.H Lee, is currently alone in second on -6 but a couple of strokes behind Sahith is the two-time winner and defending champion, Brooks Koepka, and there are a stack of big names tied for seventh and just three off the lead, including the likes of Louis Oosthuizen, Xander Schauffele and the world number one, Jon Rahm.

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, the last couple of winners have both overcome slow starts so if your picks aren't up there yet, there's no need to panic, and there could be a bit of value around on a few outsiders this morning.

Although the first round hasn't yet finished, early indications suggest that the day one PM starters will have averaged more than a stroke less than those that began their rounds in the morning so I've chanced a couple at big prices that don't tee off until later today...

Other than a long birdie putt on the par three seventh, not much went right for Dave Tindall's each-way tip Jordan Spieth yesterday and he's playing better than his one-under-par 70 suggests. He muscled in on the action after a slow start at Pebble last week and I'm happy to throw a few pounds in his direction at 75.074/1.

As highlighted in the preview, we've already seen six players win the Phoenix Open for the second or third time this century so the 2018 winner, Gary Woodland, looks a big price after an opening three-under-par 68.

Ras al Khaimah Classic Pre-Event Selections:
Daniel Van Tonder @ 60.059/1
Brandon Stone @ 80.079/1
Andy Sullivan @ 90.089/1

Waste Management Phoenix Open Pre-Event Selection:
Hideki Matsuyama @ 20.019/1

In-Play Picks:
Jordan Spieth @ 75.074/1
Gary Woodland @ 130.0129/1
Brooks Koepka @ 6.05/1
Bubba Watson @ 130.0129/1
Louis Oosthuizen @ 140.0139/1
Patton Kizzire @ 410.0409/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 1 ½ u Andrew Putnam @ 201.0200/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 1u Hudson Swafford @ 310.0309/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 1 ½ u Marcus Helligkilde @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter