The Punter's In-Play Blog: Rookie Riley leads the Valspar

09:25 - March 20, 2022

Low scores are out there at the Valspar Championship. A day after Matthew NeSmith fired a ten-under-par 61 to hit the front at halfway, 25-year-old rookie, Davis Riley shot 62 to overtake him. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:15.

Davis Riley -18 3.4549/20
Matthew NeSmith -16 7.06/1
Justin Thomas -15 3.814/5
Sam Burns -15 4.94/1
Adam Hadwin -13 24.023/1
-11 and 60.059/1 bar

PGA Tour rookie, Davis Riley, came into the event with 2022 form figures reading 20-59-MC-49-42-MC and the last time we saw him on the PGA Tour he shot 80 in the second round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He's playing here for the first time.

That would explain why he was generally a 380.0379/1 chance before the off and why he was still trading at 55.054/1 yesterday but it was impossible not to be impressed by his bogey-free 62 yesterday. The only time he ever looked in trouble was at the tricky par four 18th but he still managed to get up-and-down for par after a poor drive and a missed green.

The current first and second were one of the few in the field not to play the gruelling Players Championship last week and that may count in their favour again today but the pressure is bound to be cranked up a couple of notches on trophy day.

Sam Burns, who's again in-contention, was tied for the lead after three rounds last year, and Paul Casey was a shot in front in 2019 when he won the second of his two titles here. Adam Hadwin, another former winner in-contention this year, was four clear in 2017 so three of the last four victors were all leading with a round to go but it's certainly not a confirmed frontrunner's track.

Riley came form five back yesterday to lead by two and two of the last five winners have trailed by that many with a round to go.

Casey was five off the lead and tied for 11th before winning in 2018 and Charl Schwartzel also trailed by five before winning in 2015.

That's the furthest any winner has trailed by at Innisbrook and given those tied for sixth are seven off the lead, it's hard to envisage the winner not being inside the top-five now.

Justin Thomas had plenty pf praise for Riley after the third round but he's now his biggest danger.

The world number eight began his third round in sloppy fashion but for the third day in-a-row he shot a five-under-par 66 and if he can manage one more that might just be enough.

Davis has won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour, having sat second with a round to go on both occasions, and this is the first time he's led anywhere with a round to go. It's going to be tough to back up yesterday's low round and both he and NeSmith look opposable given their inexperience at this level.

Thomas and Burns are the two most likely winners but I'm not in any rush to side with either. Burns was poor in-contention at the Players last week and given he trails by three, Thomas isn't a great price.

This has been an odd event from the start as far as I'm concerned. Yesterday's in-play pick, Adam Hadwin, was a disappointment but he's not quite out of it and other than a tiny bet on Matt Fitzpatrick at 65.064/1, I'm happy to leave the tournament alone now and cheer him on.

I backed Fitzpatrick when he missed the cut at the Players last week and I would have backed him again this week but he was well tipped-up and just too short before the off.

He looks to have too much to do from seven back but just for sanity's sake I've thrown a few pounds in his direction.

18:10 - March 19, 2022

A steady five-under-par 67 in round three has seen Shaun Norris extend his lead at the Steyn Championship to four strokes. Here's the latest standings with prices to back at 18:00.

Shaun Norris -23 1.538/15
Dean Burmester -19 5.49/2
Matti Schmid -18 17.016/1
JB Hansen -17 25.024/1
Sebastian Soderberg -17 36.035/1
Romain Langasque -16 48.047/1
Mikki Korhonen -15 150.0149/1
-14 and 200.0199/1 bar

Just two weeks after Ewan Ferguson went into the final round of the Magical Kenya Open with a four-stroke lead, Norris goes into the fourth and final round of the Steyn Championship with the same advantage and he'll be hoping to fare far better.

Ferguson, who is at a very different stage in his career to the experienced multiple winner, Norris, crumbled in the heat of battle, falling to a tie for ninth.

Ferguson was the 40th player to lead by four with a round to go on the DP World Tour since 1996 and he was the 12th to fail to convert so 54-hole four-stroke leaders have an impressive enough 70% strike rate.

Given Norris' closest challenger is the pre-event favourite, Dean Burmester, an argument could be made that the leader's short enough at around 1/2 but Norris if four from four when leading through three rounds and Burmester has been getting frustrated with himself far too easily over the last couple of days.

Norris has converted two single stroke leads, at the Africa Open in 2008 and at the Tokai Classic on the Japan Tour in 2019, and he's also won from five and seven strokes in front so he's a fair price at around 1/2.

Yesterday's in-play pick, JB Hansen, is still in touch if the front two do faulter and I've also had a very small bet on Matti Schmid at 17.016/1.

The young German is a winner in waiting and that's just a few points too big.

22:55 - March 18, 2022

We've reached the halfway stage of the Valspar Championship and pre-event 350.0349/1 chance, Matthew NeSmith, leads by two after an incredible 10-under-par 61 on Friday afternoon. Here's the 36 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 22:50.

Matthew NeSmith -14 6.86/1
Adam Hadwin -12 6.86/1
Sam Burns -11 6.25/1
Scott Stallings -11 21.020/1
Justin Thomas -10 5.24/1
Davis Riley -9 55.054/1
Xander Schauffele -8 21.020/1
Webb Simpson -8 36.035/1
Brian Harman -8 50.049/1
-7 and 34.033/1 bar

The halfway leaders have fared very well in this event of late. Paul Casey was sitting second at halfway, trailing by two, when he won the first of his two titles in 2018, but two of the last four winners have been tied for the lead and the 2017 champ, Adan Hadwin, was one clear at this stage.

This is a new trend, however. Prior to Hadwin's victory five years ago, the last 36-hole leader to go on to win was KJ Choi in 2006 and we've seen plenty of victors come from off the pace.

John Senden sat tied for 35th and fully eight strokes back in 2014 and we've seen other winners come from three, four, six and seven adrift at this stage so t really is a wide-open event and a tough one to call.

Justin Thomas heads the market and understandably so but the world number eight's game looked a bit ragged at the end of the second round - especially off the tee - and the only I like at this stage is the former winner, Hadwin.

Although the event has only been in existence since 2000, and we've missed two years (2001 due to the September 11 attacks and two years ago because of the pandemic), we've already seen three players win the tournament twice (Retief Goosen, KJ Choi and Paul Casey) and Hadwin looks a fair price to become the fourth multiple winner.

Sam Burns, currently tied for third, is the defending champ, so he's also bidding to win the title for a second time but he was poor in-the-mix at the Players Championship last week and Hadwin looks a better bet at a bigger price.

21:05 - March 18, 2022

We've reached the halfway stage of the Steyn Championship in South Africa and the home contingent are dominating. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 21:00.

Shaun Norris -18 2.186/5
James Hart du Preez -15 17.533/2
Dean Burmester -13 7.87/1
Oliver Bekker -12 17.016/1
JB Hanen -12 20.019/1
Sebastian Soderberg -12 38.037/1
-11 and 30.029/1 bar

Shaun Norris has opened the event with rounds of 64 and 62 to tie Ernie Els' longstanding 36-hole DP World Tour scoring record that dates all the way back to the 2004 edition of the now defunct Heineken Classic.

Ernie shot rounds off 60 and 66 to get to -18 at the halfway stage and although he went on to win, he made a bit of a meal of it. Leading by seven at halfway and by eight through 54-holes, he eventually beat Adam Scott by a solitary stroke after a two-over-par 74 on Sunday.

With James Hart du Preez three back, the well-fancied Dean Bumester alone in third and five adrift, and a talented trio six back, Norris doesn't have the wriggle room that Ernie had 18 years ago and he looks opposable.

Norris has won all over the world - six times on the Japan Tour and twice on both the Asian and Sunshine Tours and his record when leading through 36 holes is decent enough too.

Norris has led or been tied for the lead seven times previously and he's gone on to win three times, although one of those victories was in a 54-hole event in Japan.

There's nothing in his CV to suggest he wouldn't have the nerve or ability to win from here and on the last occasion he was tied for lead at halfway, he kicked on and won the prestigious Japan Open last October.

Since 1996, 42% of three-stroke 36-hole leaders on the DP World Tour have gone on to win so his price is fair but this track is so easy, he only has to have a slightly more ordinary day than he's experienced so far and he'll be caught.

Alone in third, the pre-event favourite, Burmester, is Norris' biggest danger but he stalled a bit in round two today, playing his last seven holes in one-over-par having been matched at a low of 3.052/1 and the one I like at this stage is JB Hansen.

Memories of his maiden win, in the Joburg Open in 2020, have clearly inspired the Dane on his return to Johannesburg and his second victory, last year, was in one of the events I mentioned in the preview - the Dubai Championship - another very low scoring affair.

Hansen won in Dubai with a 23-under-par winning score and he's going to have to go even deeper to collect the prize here, but he looks a fair price at 20.019/1 to win his third DP World Tour event in as many years.

I'll be back later with a look at the Valspar Championship at the halfway stage.

09:25 - March 18, 2022

As highlighted in the preview, course form stands up well at Copperhead, the host course for the 21st edition of the Valspar Championship.

As many as three players have already won the tournament twice so it's perhaps no surprise to see the defending champion, Sam Burns, and the 2017 winner, Adam Hadwin, tied for the lead after round one alongside Jhonattan Vegas and David Lipsky on seven-under-par.

Burns, who was in-contention for much of last week's Players Championship before fading on Monday, is the clear favourite ahead of round two but I'm in no rush to side with him.

It's going top take a monumental effort for him to emulate Paul Casey, who won back-to-back Valspars in 2018 and 2019, and in 20 previous renewals, KJ Choi, back in 2002, is the only first round leader or co-leader to kick on and take the title.

The other 26 to lead or co-lead were all beaten, and a slow start can most definitely be overcome.

When Paul Casey won the first of his two titles he sat tied eighth and three off the lead after round one in 2018 and Burns sat seventh and three back last year but since Luke Donald won here ten years ago, having sat six off the lead in tied 10th, the other six winners have been in the following positions after round one.

2013 - Kevin Streelman 70th - trailing by eight
2014 - John Senden 45th - trailing by four
2015 - Jordan Spieth 38th - trailing by five
2016 - Charl Schwartzel 25th - trailing by four
2017 - Adam Hadwin 12th - trailing by six
2019 - Paul Casey 29th - trailing by four

Going back a little further, in-between 2005 and 2009, four of the five winners trailed by four after round one and the odd one out was the 2007 champ, Mark Calcavecchia, who sat 112th and ten off the lead!

The scoring average for the entire field yesterday was 69.91 with the early starters averaging 69.79 compared to the 70.03 shot by the afternoon wave and it looks like yesterday's late starters will just about enjoy the best of it by the time we reach halfway.

We're all set for a blustery day today with the wind doing it's worst in the afternoon.

Given the forecast and the stats, I'm happy to wait and see what today brings but I couldn't resist a tiny top-up on Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Joel Dahmen, at 250.0249/1.

Tied for 33rd and four off the lead after round one, he really found his groove on the back-nine yesterday after a slow start and being such a strong wind exponent, he could kick on nicely this morning.

Over on the DP World Tour, monstrously long James Hart Du Preez, who averages 379 yards off the tee, is the clear leader of the Steyn City Championship.

The 6 foot 10" South African is just finishing his second round and he's five clear of the field.

I'll be back later today with a look at the event once they've reached the halfway stage.

Valspar Championship Pre-Event Selection:
Tyrrell Hatton @ 32.031/1

In-Play Picks:
Joel Dahmen @ 250.0249/1
Adam Hadwin @ 6.86/1

Steyn City Championship Pre-Event Selection:
George Coetzee @ 24.023/1

In-Play Picks:
JB Hansen @ 20.019/1
Matti Schmid @ 17.016/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 2 u Joel Dahmen @ 160.0159/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 2 u Kevin Streelman @ 160.0159/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 1 u Kurt Kitayama @ 500.0499/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter