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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Harold hits the front at Hilton Head

Steven Rawlings
17 April 2022

Harold Varner III in action in round three

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Harold Varner III has hit the front at the RBC Heritage but there's a dozen players withing three strokes of his lead so read Steve's final thoughts on the event here...

"Tommy Fleetwood is a best price of 28/1 on the High Street so I was happy to add him at 36.035/1."

08:10 - April 17, 2022

As stressed before the off and throughout the tournament, Hilton Head is a venue at which players can come from way off the pace and Harold Varner III demonstrated that perfectly yesterday with an eight-under-par bogey-free 63 that saw him move up 22 places to take up the running with a round to go at the RBC Heritage. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:00.

Harold Varner III -11 6.25/1
Patrick Cantlay -10 5.14/1
Shane Lowry -10 5.79/2
Erik Van Rooyen -10 11.010/1
Matt Kuchar -9 21.020/1
Sepp Straka -9 23.022/1
Aaron Wise -9 26.025/1
Hudson Swafford -9 29.028/1
Jordan Spieth -8 22.021/1
Billy Horschel -8 32.031/1
Tommy Fleetwood -8 36.035/1
Joel Dahmen -8 50.049/1
-7 and 65.064/1 bar

After yesterday's brilliance, Harold Varner III has put himself in pole position to win his first PGA Tour title but the stats suggest he's there to be shot at now.

Incredibly, only two of the last 23 players to lead by a stroke through 54 holes on the PGA Tour have converted and this is a place where frontrunners are especially vulnerable.

Stewart Cink won from the front last year but he was five strokes clear and Webb Simpson was tied for the lead with three others after 54 holes when he won two years but prior to that, we hadn't seen a 54-hole leader convert since 2012 and the winner had come from outside the final pairing every time.

CT Pan, in 2019, was the seventh winner in-a-row to come from at least a couple of strokes adrift and although he was quite close to the lead compared to some winners, he was still unfancied and a 36.035/1 shot after three rounds. Since Carl Pettersson converted from the front in 2012, and Prior to Webb's win in 2020, the winners had trailed by four, four, four, three, four, six and two strokes.

In addition to the seven results before 2020, Brandt Snedeker beat Luke Donald in a playoff in 2011, having trailed by six after 54 holes, but Cink easily trumps them all. Back in 2004, when wining the second of his three titles, he came from an incredible nine shots back to win, so this is still wide-open.

In addition to the top-12 listed above, there are nine players tied for 13th and just four off the lead and none of them can be discounted.

At the front of the market, in-form Irishman, Shane Lowry, would be my idea of the most likely winner but there's a danger the tank could empty out today given he was in the thick of it last weekend at Augusta.

As highlighted in the preview, the vast majority of winners of this event either missed the cut or didn't play in the US Masters.

A couple of players I mentioned in the Find Me a 100 Winner column are still in the thick of it - Hudson Swafford and Dave Tindall's 100/1 fancy, Sepp Straka - and Jordan Spieth is an interesting runner on -8, but he has to stop missing silly little putts like the one on 18 yesterday.

It happens to the best of us.

Jordan Spieth misses an 18 inch putt on 18. pic.twitter.com/8E5phd5Faq
? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 16, 2022

He also did that twice on the same hole at the Valero Texas Open a fortnight ago and lapses of concentration like that usually prove costly.

Yesterday's in-play pick, Joel Dahmen, is one of the three players alongside Spieth and they all look dangerous.

This track is perfect for the in-form Billy Horschel and Tommy Fleetwood will be favoured by coming from off the pace. He lost a playoff at the Shenzhen International in 2017 having trailed by eight with a round to go, he won the Nedbank from six back through 54 holes in 2019 and he shot 63 in the final round of the 2018 US Open to finish second from six back.

Fleetwood is a best price of 28/1 on the High Street so I was happy to add him at 36.035/1 but it's a tricky event to call and jumping on one or two from off the pace that start nicely may be the way to play it.

08:15 - April 16, 2022

One of my Find Me a 100 Winner picks, 690.0689/1 chance Robert Streb, had a four-foot birdie putt on the par four ninth (his final hole of the round) to go two clear of the field yesterday but he misread the putt, settled for a par four, and was caught and passed by Patrick Cantlay, who birdied each of his last four in round two.

Patrick cantlay at the RBC Heritage.jpg

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:10.

Patrick Cantlay -9 2.89/5
Robert Streb -7 32.031/1
Cameron Young -6 24.023/1
Erik Van Rooyen -6 27.026/1
Aaron Wise -6 29.028/1
Cameron Tringale -6 32.031/1
Joel Dahmen -6 32.031/1
Joaquin Niemann -5 22.021/1
Jordan Spieth -5 24.023/1
Matt Kuchar -5 34.033/1
Mito Pereira -5 46.045/1
Sepp Straka -5 48.047/1
Chad Ramey -5 100.099/1
Shane Lowry -4 26.025/1
Corey Conners -4 36.035/1
-4 and 46.045/1 bar

Cantlay's two-stroke 36-hole lead is his biggest halfway lead to date but his record when only one in front or tied at the top at this stage is poor.

The world number six has led or been tied for the lead seven times previously and he's yet to go on to convert.

The last two RBC Heritage winners were both leading at halfway - Stewart Cink was five clear 12 months ago and Webb Simpson led by a stroke in 2020 - but we've witnessed plenty of winners here from off the pace.

The nine winners before Webb were all trailing at halfway and trailing between two and five strokes, so the stats suggest the tournament is far more open than the odds on Cantlay suggest.

On the last three occasions that Cantlay's been in front on the PGA Tour at this stage he's finished 12th, eighth and ninth so I've put a small lay in the Top 5 Finish market at 1.42/5 but I'll cancel it if it doesn't get matched before they start.

In addition to the potential lay on Cantlay, I've added a small bet on last year's Corales winner, Joel Dahmen, who looks fractionally big at 34.033/1 but this is a really tough event to call, and I'll reassess in the morning.

09:05 - April 15, 2022

Last year's RBC Heritage winner, Stewart Cink, sat second after round one and the 2020 champ, Webb Simpson, sat third, and both men trailed by a single stroke before leading all the way thereafter, but a slow start can most certainly be overcome here.

In the last 11 years we've seen winners sitting 28th, 35th, 36th, 53rd, 58th and 82nd after the opening round and they've trailed by five, six and even nine strokes so unlike last week's venue, Augusta, Hilton Head can't be described as a frontrunner's track.

The early pacesetter is pre-event 160.0159/1 chance, Cameron Young, who was backed down from a high of 370.0369/1, and I'm not at all surprised he was well-supported.

He ranked second for this week's key stat, Scrambling, when he impressed at Riviera in February when finishing second to Joaquin Niemann in the Genesis Invitational and he's a perfect advert for why we can ignore a poor week at Augusta at this event. The 24-year-old missed the cut last week after a pair of 77s.

On the flipside, several players highlighted how hard it is to bounce back here after contending in the year's first major with Cameron Smith the prize exhibit.

The Players Champion, who eventually finished tied for third, was matched at a low of just 2.35/4 last Sunday when he got to within a stroke of Scottie Scheffler after the first two holes of round four and the disappointment of defeat has clearly left a mark.

The 28-year-old Aussie began his opening round double-bogey - birdie - bogey - double-bogey to put himself firmly behind the eight ball. He recovered well after that, playing his last 14 holes in a bogey-free two-under-par but he's got his work cut out now. Smith sits tied for 104th and ten off the lead.

The market is still wide open with only two players trading at a single-figure price. Patrick Cantlay, who sits tied for third and three off the lead is vying for favouritism with the aforementioned Niemann, who sits alone in second, two behind Young. Both men are trading at 9.28/1 this morning.

There are 19 players within four strokes of Young and most of them went off at huge prices.

Cantlay was fairly well fancied before the off and I'm pleased to see pre-event pick, Tyrrell Hatton, has started nicely but there are plenty of outsiders in-the-mix so I've added two players to the portfolio that were matched at 1000.0 before the off.

As highlighted in the Find Me a 100 Winner Column, I could have easily backed a dozen outsiders before the off and with the benefit of hindsight, it's quite hard to believe that Brian Gay was matched at 1000.0.

Gay won this event by a record ten strokes in 2009 and although he's now 50, age is no barrier to success at Hilton Head and he won the Bermuda Championship on the PGA Tour as recently as November 2020. I've added him at 350.0349/1.

Brian Gay wins in Bermuda.jpg

In addition to Gay, I've also backed the four-time PGA Tour winner, and 2016 US Open runner-up, Scott Piercy. The 43-year-old has been woefully out of form of late but he's a very talented player on his day and he was third here just three years ago.

Pre-Event Selections:
Kevin Kisner @ 55.054/1
Tyrrell Hatton @ 65.064/1
Billy Horschel - 1st Round Leader @ 55.054/1

In-Play Picks:
Scott Piercy @ 270.0269/1
Brian Gay @ 350.0349/1
Joel Dahmen @ 34.033/1
Tommy Fleetwood @ 36.035/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 1.5 u Stewart Cink @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 1.5 u Mito Pereira @ 160.0159/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 0.5 u Robert Streb @ 690.0689/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 0.5 u Ben Martin @ 760.0759/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1