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The Punter's Players In-Play Blog: Still wide-open at Sawgrass

Steven Rawlings
14 March 2022

Third round leader, Anirban Lahiri, in action on Sunday

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There's just one round to go at Sawgrass so our man's back with a last look at the market before the fourth and final round...

"I’d like to think Sam Burns or Paul Casey should have enough experience to get the job done but the two that look most dangerous at this stage are Cam Smith, who’s based at TPC Sawgrass, and the 2019 Open winner, Shane Lowry."

16:10 - March 14, 2022

With perfect weather finally greeting the field this morning, the third round has been completed with the minimum of fuss and the fourth and final round of the Players Championship is finally underway.

Here's the latest standings with prices to back at 16:00.

Anirban Lahiri -9 13.5
Sam Burns -8 7.413/2
Paul Casey -7 8.615/2
Sebastian Munoz -8 10.519/2
Doug Ghim -8 14.5
Cam Smith -7 9.417/2
Tom Hoge -7 14.013/1
Shane Lowry -6 17.5
Louis Oosthuizen -6 19.5
Will Zalatoris -6 23.022/1
Kevin Kisner -6 30.029/1
Harold Varner III -6 48.047/1
Russell Knox -6 60.059/1
Kevin Streelman -6 65.064/1
-5 and 50.049/1 bar

As highlighted this morning, Henrik Stenson shot 66 to win from five back in 2009 but he was second with a round to go and his win was greatly aided by the 54-hole leader, Alex Cjeka's collapse.

Every other winner since 1996 has been within four strokes of the lead and Rickie Fowler, who sat 11th through 54 holes in 2015, and three strokes back, is the only winner outside the top-six places with a round to go.

And since Steve Elkington won the second of his two titles in 1997, as many as 28 players have led or co-led through 54 holes and only one of them (Stephen Ames in 2006) has shot a final round in the 60s. Not a good sign for Anirban Lahiri.

Ames fired a 67 to win by six having led by one 16 years ago but the 18 third round leaders/co/leaders since Ames converted in style are a combined 51-over-par with a scoring average of 75.

Webb Simpson (2018) and Jason Day (2016) both won from the front but they were seven and four strokes ahead respectively and they shot 73 and 71 in round four.

The only other third round leaders to covert since Ames are Martin Kaymer (2014) and Tiger Woods (2013) but they only shot 71 and 70 respectively.

The leaders do look a bit vulnerable and I can see the final three-ball of Lahiri, Doug Ghim, and Sebastian Munoz struggling. Munoz won the Sanderson Farms Championship back in 2019 but that's the only title between all three. Holding firm this afternoon and converting is a huge ask.

I'd like to think Sam Burns or Paul Casey should have enough experience to get the job done but the two that look most dangerous at this stage are Cam Smith, who's based at TPC Sawgrass, and the 2019 Open winner, Shane Lowry.

Given Fowler is the only winner in the last 25 years or so, Lowry (who's currently tied for eighth) would have to defy those stats, so of the two, Smith would my idea of the most likely winner from here but it's very hard to call and I'm not at all surprised they still bet in excess of 6/1 the field.

I've got runners in Casey and Hoge (see Find Me a 100 Winner column), Burns, Kevin Kisner and Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Patrick Reed, but Smith's the one I fear so I've added him modestly at 9.89/1.

Cameron Smith wins the Sentry.jpg

08:00 - March 14, 2022

The 49th edition of the Players Championship is certainly a strange one. Weather delays have caused all sorts of problems and the winning post, which will eventually be reached today, is still some way off.

A playoff could prove problematic given they playoff over three holes here but fingers crossed we should finally get done today.

Those in the final three-balls after the cut was made yesterday are only halfway through their third rounds and it's still wide open.

Anirban Lahiri is the surprise leader but with as many as 16 players within four of his lead, we're still assessing a wide-open market with the favourite, Sam Burns, trading at more than 8/1.

Here's the latest standings with prices to back at 07:50, together with holes played in round three.

Anirban Lahiri -9 17.016/1 (11)
Tom Hoge -8 9.28/1 (9)
Harold Varner III -8 13.5 (9)
Sam Burns -7 9.28/1 (9)
Paul Casey -7 11.010/1 (9)
Sebastian Munoz -7 21.020/1 (14)
Cam Smith -6 11.521/2 (10)
Daniel Berger -6 17.016/1 (13)
Doug Ghim -6 38.037/1 (10)
Francesco Molinari -6 42.041/1 (15)
Selected Others
Shane Lowry -5 29.028/1 (14)
Tommy Fleetwood -5 34.033/1 (9)
Justin Thomas -4 19.5 (11)
-5 and 60.059/1 bar

After his stunning second round in the worst of the weather on Saturday, the defending champion, Justin Thomas, was matched at a low of just 6.86/1 after he birdied his first two holes of his third round yesterday but he lost his way after that, driving into the water at the par four seventh where he gave both gained strokes back.

A bogey followed at the par three eighth but he's fighting back. Birdies were recorded at nine and ten and he has inside seven feet at the 12th hole to get back to -5, hence why he's still only 20.019/1 despite currently trailing by five.

Thomas is looking to become the first ever to defend the title and he has plenty of traffic to pass so he looks short enough to me.

HOLE-IN-ONE AT THE ISLAND GREEN @ShaneLowryGolf makes the 10th ace on No. 17 in @THEPLAYERSChamp history. pic.twitter.com/HqSYe4XuZh
? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 13, 2022

Shane Lowry is in touch thanks to this hole-in-one at the 17th and he's looking for revenge after being cruelly denied at the Honda Classic a fortnight ago but with course and current form aplenty, the name that sticks out to me this morning is Daniel Berger and I wouldn't put anyone off Francesco Molinari at in excess of 40.039/1 either.

Like Berger, the 2018 Open champ is a Florida specialist and with his coach, Dennis Pugh, in attendance this week, he's playing some of the best golf he's played in years.

If forced to name the winner at this stage, I'd probably plump for Berger but it's hard to know how anyone is going to play today.

The final three-ball looked laboured last night and Tom Hoge's birdie at the par five ninth was just about the scruffiest you'll witness but toady's another day and it may just boil down to who's the best rested.

I'll try and pop back before the fourth round begins but if the turnaround is too quick, here's a quick look at how the 54-hole leaders have fared over the years.

Since Steve Elkington won the second of his two titles in 1997, by seven strokes after a 69 on Sunday, as many as 28 players have led or co-led through 54 holes and only one of them (Stephen Ames in 2006) has shot a final round in the 60s.

Ames fired a 67 to win by six having led by one 16 years ago but the 18 third round leaders/co/leaders since Ames converted in style are a combined 51-over-par with a scoring average of 75.

Up with the pace is definitely the place to be but you're clearly there to be shot at if you're leading through 54 holes. Although it's not easy to win from too far back...

Henrik Stenson shot 66 to win from five back in 2009 but he was second with a round to go and his win was greatly aided by Alex Cjeka's collapse.

Every other winner since 1996 has been within four of the lead and Rickie Fowler, who sat 11th through 54 holes in 2015 and three strokes back, is the only winner outside the top-six places with a round to go.

19:55 - March 13, 2022

At this time on a Sunday at Sawgrass we're usually settling in to see the fourth and final round of the Players Championship but not this year.

After numerous storms, plenty of rain, a couple of late starts, and numerous weather breaks, we've finally reached the halfway stage.

It's been a grind and unsurprisingly there's been a significant draw bias. There's been a differential in scoring between the two sides of draw of three strokes and only 38% of the players having made the cut were drawn PM-AM.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 19:50.

Sam Burns -7 8.07/1
Tom Hoge -7 11.010/1
Erik Van Rooyen -6 24.023/1
Harold Varner III -6 27.026/1
Abraham Ancer -5 18.017/1
Corey Conners -5 16.015/1
Tommy Fleetwood -5 22.021/1
Paul Casey -5 20.019/1
Keith Mitchell -5 32.031/1
Taylor Pendrith -5 70.069/1
Cam Smith -4 18.017/1
Will Zalatoris -4 26.025/1
Joaquin Niemann -4 32.031/1
Doug Ghim -4 100.099/1
Anirban Lahiri -4 200.0199/1
Jon Rahm -3 12.5
Justin Thomas -3 16.015/1
-3 and 50.049/1 bar

Si Woo Kim sat 16th and six off the lead at halfway before winning the 2017 edition of the Players Championship and Justin Thomas was tied for 22nd and seven back after 36 holes 12 months ago so with only nine strokes separating the entire field with two rounds to go, this year's edition is still wide open.

Tim Clark was also seven back and tied for 23rd in 2010 so given the 2020 edition was abandoned after the opening round because of the pandemic, three of the last 11 winners have come from off the pace but one could just as easily argue that Sawgrass is a frontrunners course...

As many as five of the last nine winners were in front at this stage and other than Clark, Kim, and Thomas, Tiger Woods, who was tied for eighth and six adrift, is the only other winner this century to be more than four adrift. The stats are worth considering but given this year's tournament is so unique it's debatable how much credence we can give them.

The five players that have converted from the front here in the last nine years all slept on their lead on Friday night but this year's co-leaders, Tom Hoge and Sam Burns, now need to grab a quick bite to eat and attempt to get as many holes in as possible. It's clearly a very different renewal.

Having already played 18 holes today, how tired are Hoge, Burns and co going to be as the day wears on? Will the players yet to play today be able to make a big move, or have they been further disadvantaged by waiting around all day?

It's very hard to call but one thing we do need to bear in mind is that the wind is going to drop as the day wears on today.

The third round has already started and given we've got three-balls in a U-draw, there's only a couple of hours between the first and last groups off, but if the wind lays down as forecasted, the latter starters might just catch another break.

As highlighted earlier in the week, I've already got Tom Hoge onside modestly and I also had a small bet on Paul Casey at a triple-figure price just in case, having written the following in the Find Me a 100 Winner column...

"I like a morning starter at the Players on day one as a rule, so I fully expected to be putting up both Paul Casey and Tom Hoge. Both played better than their respective finishing positions last week with Casey starting well and finishing poorly and Hoge starting deplorably before plugging on in the tough conditions.

Both have form at Sedgefield, although Hoge's is better hidden. Casey has finished third in the Wyndham whereas Hoge has led after round one twice but never finished better than 20th. And that was after a slow start!
I liked both Casey and Hoge and I backed Casey for a top-20 finish on Monday at 5/1 but I'm really put off by the draw now."

My draw theory was a million miles out so that's frustrating but I'm happy to have gotten Sam Burns onside this morning and I've now added two more - Canada's Corey Conners and last week's winner, Scottie Scheffler.

Conners was 11th last week at Bay Hill and he finished seventh here 12 months ago, so he was on the shortlist before the off and he looks fairly priced at 16.015/1 given he trails by only two.

Lightening struck for a second time last week when Scottie Scheffler won the Arnold Palmer Invitational after he'd trailed by eight at halfway, just a couple of weeks after he'd won the WM Phoenix Open, having trailed by nine through 36 holes. Can he do it again?

Scheffler wins Arnold Palmer.jpg

He's in search of his third win in four starts and he won't be fazed by trailing by nine.

Given it's U-draw, Scheffler will be teeing off late in the day and I was more than happy to throw a few pounds in his direction at 640.0639/1.

10:20 - March 13, 2022

For the third day in-a-row, the weather caused chaos at the Players Championship yesterday.

The rain finally stopped falling and play resumed at midday local time, but high winds sorted the men from the boys and the greats from the men.

Quite how Justin Thomas and Bubba Watson plotted their way through their second rounds without dropping a single shot is hard to comprehend when the second round scoring average yesterday was 75.4 and major winners, Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson, and Brooks Koepka all shot seven-over-par or worse.

It was an incredibly tough day and there was utter carnage on the par three 17th.

17th hole during Round 2:

2 birdies
34 pars
9 bogeys
10 doubles
4 triples or worse pic.twitter.com/sAXZ53xHj8
? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 13, 2022

Bubba and Justin are currently tied for 15th and three off the lead after yesterday's brilliance and Thomas is trading at just 14.5 but I fear both are going to drift in price as today wears on.

We're forecasted to get some more wind today but it won't be anywhere near as bad as yesterday and those drawn PM-AM look like being significantly disadvantaged.

Anyone wanting to get involved now should probably be concentrating on those with golf to play, not those in the clubhouse. It's going to be interesting to see where Bubba and Thomas are when we eventually reach the halfway stage sometime today but I'd wager they'll be further behind than they are now.

Although it's Sunday morning, we're essentially looked at the tournament as though it were Friday lunchtime so there's certainly no need to rush in.

I was quite tempted to continue to sit on my hands for now, but I do think Sam Burns is fractionally over-priced at 25.024/1.

Burns played very nicely from tee-to-green on Thursday, firing a four-under-par 68 despite missing a few short putts, and after his top-ten at Bay Hill last week, he looks to be rounding back into form. He's no bigger than 18/1 on the High Street so I'm happy to add him at 25.024/1.

10:10 - March 12, 2022

Rory McIlroy's face says it all. Yesterday was an utterly miserable day at Sawgrass and he isn't going to cheer up any time soon if today's weather forecast is anything to go by.

Rory McIlroy and Harry Diamond at Sawgrass.jpg

Play resumed on day two on time yesterday and for about 20 minutes it looked like we may get a full day's play in at the Players Championship but it wasn't to be.

The rain fell hard early on, but it eased for a while and my (now way-off) theory that those drawn PM-AM would get the advantage of a full day in rain-softened, wind-free conditions looked like it may ring true but then the rain began to intensify, a dangerous weather front moved in, and play was eventually suspended for the day.

So here we are on Saturday morning viewing a leaderboard that shows some players having only completed two thirds of their opening round!

The forecast predicts a blustery day all day today with early heavy rain finally stopping at around 11:00 local time. That's not good news for the PM-AM wave, who now have to play for much of today in what could transpire to be the worst of the weather.

Although it looks like we've seen the last of the electrical activity, the tournament will now run into Monday with the cut occurring sometime on Sunday and there's even a slight chance it runs into Tuesday.

The leaderboard is still dominated by those that managed to complete their opening rounds on Thursday and bizarrely, they're not likely to play again until tomorrow so it really is a strange event now but Brice Garnett did pull alongside Tommy Fleetwood and Tom Hoge when he produced this bit of magic at the fourth. He now has five holes of his opening round to play.

Quite a way to finish the day. @BriceGarnett's hole-out eagle before the horn blew has him as the co-leader with 5 holes remaining in his first round. pic.twitter.com/7OU4W3Lm7g
? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 11, 2022

Today looks especially tough weather-wise so with the chance of further suspensions in play I'm sitting on my hands for now and I'll be back in the morning when the picture should be very much clearer.

I did add one bet in-running yesterday but that wasn't too successful. Kevin Kisner three-putted for bogey at 17 and missed a four-footer for birdie on 18 after I backed him. And shortly after that play was suspended.

Having banged on and on about the link to Sedgefield CC, happy to add Kisner (the reigning Wyndham champ) at circa 65.
? Steve Rawlings (@SteveThePunter) March 11, 2022

08:45 - March 11, 2022

After a delay of an hour to the start of play on day one of the Players Championship and a four-hour suspension in play at lunchtime yesterday, as many as 12 players are yet to put a peg in the ground at Sawgrass and there's no prospect of us reaching the halfway stage today.

The forecast is for lots of rain early on today before it brightens up as the day wears on so the best we can probably hope for is that those originally drawn PM-AM get their first two rounds done today.

Tommy Fleetwood and Tom Hoge are currently tied for the lead on five-under-par but it's long odds-on that the next time they get to play will be tomorrow when the weather really does get nasty, with the wind predicted to gust at up to 40 mph.

Tommy Fleetwood at Sawgrass.jpg

I mentioned Hoge in the Find Me a 100 Winner column and had I published on Tuesday he'd have been a pick. I did have a small saver before the off for the reasons set out in the column but despite leading, he looks up against it given the forecast.

Collin Morikawa currently heads the market and understandably so. He has five feet for birdie at the third hole to get to two-under-par when play resumes and if we don't get too much of a delay this morning (a distinct possibility given the forecast), he may just get to the halfway stage today.

Should it pan out that way for Morikawa, and all the other players that have only just started the event, that's likely to be a big advantage.

Provided there aren't any lengthy delays, they will eventually have to play in the blustery conditions tomorrow but getting to play as much as half of the tournament in today's rain-softened and benign post-rain conditions is likely to be a huge advantage.

Unsurprisingly, given they're likely to benefit from their PM-AM draws, the market is favouring the likes of Morikawa, Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka, who are all considerably shorter than their SPs now that they've picked up a shot or two after just a few holes of the tournament but not everyone has been found out by the market.

I added Billy Horschel on Wednesday because of the weather and he still looks fairly priced (-1 after two holes) but the one that appears overlooked the most this morning is Talor Gooch...

As highlighted in the preview, the last 11 winners of the Players have all finished 22nd or better in their previous outing and I really like form at Sedgefield Country Club - home of the Wyndham Championship - and Gooch ticks both boxes.

He was tied for the lead with a round to go at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before a disastrous start to round four saw him eventually finish tied for seventh last week and he led the Wyndham at halfway in 2020. He lost his way after that to finish 25th but he's a stronger character now and he did nothing wrong at the RSM Classic when converting a three-stroke 54-hole lead to win his first PGA Tour title in November.

Talor Gooch.jpg

Gooch was fifth here 12 months ago and I thought 90.089/1 was far too big given he's one-under-par after four holes of his opening round.

17:05 - March 10, 2022

We're not yet halfway through the opening day of the 49th edition of the Players Championship and the weather is already causing problems.

The start was delayed for an hour this morning and after just over three hours of action, play has now been suspended due to inclement weather.

This is the first suspension at Sawgrass since the second round in 2016 but it probably won't be the last this week.

The first groups out have played only 11 or 12 holes but with scoring so good, thanks to rain-softened receptive greens and the absence of any wind, four men are tied for the early lead on four-under-par - Will Zalatoris, Harold Varner III and Tommy Fleetwood.

After a fortuitous drive, that bounced out of the trees and onto the fairway, Fleetwood has nine feet for birdie at the second (his 11th for the round) to take the lead when he returns.

As highlighted below, a morning start on day one has been key of late and so far, this year's early starters have enjoyed some perfect playing conditions but there's a real danger that they'll end up being on the wrong side if delays are lengthy and numerous.

Each of the last 6 @THEPLAYERSChamp winners went out early/late the first 2 rounds.
? Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) March 10, 2022

Wind isn't predicted to be an issue before the weekend now but we are going to get plenty of rain. There's a strong chance that those drawn PM-AM end up playing their first and second rounds very late today and mainly tomorrow and those drawn AM-PM finish up having to play their second rounds in the really windy weather on Saturday.

Of course, that's all just conjecture and we just have to wait and see how the event develops.

Jon Rahm, who's two-under-par through eight holes and safely onboard the 17th green, is still the favourite but he's two-under-par thanks to a pair of very lengthy putts so he's not playing at his tip-top best just yet.

Neither of my pre-event picks have begun the tournament yet (preview here) and only one of the three Find Me a 100 Winner picks has started but he's doing OK. Patrick Reed, backed at 240.0239/1, is one off the lead on -3 after nine holes.

They're hoping to see play resume at 18:00 UK time but with thunder and lightning currently rippling over the course, that does appear a little optimistic.

Over on the DP World Tour, the scoring is even lower than expected at the MyGolfLife Open. The scoring average in round one was only 68.92 around the par 72 Pecanwood and as many as four players have shot ten-under-par opening 62s.

Pre-event pick, Dean Burmester, is only three off the lead after a seven-under-par 65 but my other pick, Hurley Long, looks in trouble after a three-under-par 69! That see's the German tied for 75th.

Players Championship Pre-Event Selections:
Matt Fitzpatrick @ 46.045/1
Billy Horschel @ 70.069/1 (added on Wednesday after the preview first published)

In-Play Picks:
Talor Gooch @ 90.089/1
Kevin Kisner @ 65.064/1
Sam Burns @ 25.024/1
Corey Conners @ 16.015/1
Scottie Scheffler @ 640.0639/1