The Punter's In-Play Blog: Rory one of three in front at Muirfield

• McIlroy favourite to take the title
• 22 separated by just three strokes
• Matsuyama and Suh chanced ahead of round four

12:45 - June 4, 2023

David Lipsky was the only player inside the top-four at the halfway stage of the Memorial Tournament not to shoot over par in round three and he was matched at a low of just 3.211/5 when he looked like leading at the end of the round but a bogey at 13 was followed by three pars and a pair of bogeys at 17 and 18 and having posted a level-par 72, he's now tied at the top with Rory McIlroy and Si Woo Kim. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 12:35.

Rory McIlroy -6 4.47/2
Si Woo Kim -6 8.88/1
David Lipsky -6 26.025/1
Viktor Hovland -5 10.09/1
Wyndham Clark -5 16.015/1
Denny McCarthy -5 26.025/1
Mark Hubbard -5 40.039/1
Lee Hodges -5 44.043/1
Patrick Cantlay -4 13.012/1
Collin Morikawa -4 19.018/1
Hideki Matsuyama -4 25.024/1
Keegan Bradley -4 40.039/1
Patrick Rodgers -4 60.059/1
-3 and 40.039/1 bar

The last three Memorial Tournament winners were all in front with a round to go and we have to go all the way back to 2009 to find the last victor that started the final round outside of the first four places. And that was a certain Tiger Woods, who sat tied for seventh and four adrift.

Those stats are a little misleading though. The two winners before Woods in 2009 trailed by five and three strokes respectively and we've seen as many as six winners come from between three and five strokes back since 2009. And Kevin Na lost a playoff in 2014 after starting round four tied for 20th and trailing by seven!

We've had six playoffs in the last ten events here and looking at the leaderboard, a seventh is highly likely.

With as many as 13 players separated by just two strokes and 22 within three, it's going to be an entertaining but very difficult to predict shootout for the title.

This is the 11th time that Rory McIlroy has been tied at the top through three rounds and he went on to win on four of the previous ten occasions so he's a fair enough price at around 7/2 but with so many on the heels of the leaders, I'm in no rush to side with him at that price.

Si Woo Kim has been tied for the lead through 54 holes twice, at the Stonebrae Classic on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2015 and at The American Express two years ago and he went on to win on both occasions.

With four PGA Tour titles to his name, Kim is fairly prolific and he's fairly priced at 8.615/2 but given the nature of the leaderboard and how much change we witnessed here yesterday, I'm happy to be a bit more speculative.

As highlighted earlier in the week, Collin Morikawa, Jason Dufner and David Lingmerth have all won here recently having lost the lead in round three.

Justin Suh, who plummeted from first to 14th is still only three adrift despite shooting five-over par yesterday. He looks a bit big at 150.0149/1 and I've also backed the 2014 winner, Hideki Matsuyama, who fell from tied second to tied ninth yesterday.

Last year's winner, Billy Horschel, only ranked third for Par 4 Scoring but 11 of the 16 Memorial winners before him ranked first or second for that stat and Matsuyama has played the par fours better than anyone so far this week. I'm happy to chance him at 25.024/1.

09:25 - June 4, 2023

Here's the European Open 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:20.

Jordan Smith -6 5.24/1
Alex Bjork -6 5.79/2
Tom McKibbin -6 9.89/1
Julien Guerrier -6 9.89/1
David Law -6 10.09/1
John Axelsen -6 13.525/2
Marcel Siem -5 12.011/1
Ewen Ferguson -4 18.535/2
Max Kieffer -4 25.024/1
Paul Waring -4 40.039/1
Santiago Tarrio -3 100.099/1
-2 and 130.0129/1 bar

Last year's winner, Kalle Samooja, was tied for 22nd, trailing by seven and trading at 1000.0999/1 before the final round and the 2021 winner, Marcus Armitage, was outside the top-ten, trailing by four and trading at 70.069/1 so keep an eye on the leaderboard closely this morning before the live coverage begins at 11:00 UK time.

Anyone making a move might be worth a small speculative play at a big price but I'm backing two players now.

It's obviously odds-on that one of the leading six converts but none of them make any appeal at the prices.

Jordan Smith is the man to beat according to the market but his three-putt on 18 yesterday wasn't pretty and the second favourite, Alex Bjork, has a tendency to get his own way in-contention.

Sitting alone in seventh and trailing by just a stroke, the vastly experienced German, Marcel Siem, who won the Indian Open in February, is my idea of the best bet this morning at 12/1.

Siem tops the all-important Strokes Gained Tee-to Green stats after three rounds and the recent victory should give him an advantage at the business end of the tournament.

Also ranking highly for SGT2G is France's Jeong weon Ko, who sits tied for 12th and four off the lead. Given the nature of the track and the recent results here, an off the pace winner can't be ruled out and I was happy to chance Ko at 180.0179/1.

I'll be back shortly with a look at the Memorial Tournament, where Rory McIlroy has hit the front alongside Si Woo Kim and David Lipsky.

06:20 - June 3, 2023

We've reached the halfway stage of the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village and three former winners are trading in single figures. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 6:10.

Justin Suh -8 11.010/1
Hideki Matsuyama -7 6.611/2
Patrick Cantlay -6 4.84/1
David Lipsky -6 60.059/1
Si Woo Kim -5 18.017/1
Mark Hubbard 60.059/1
Jon Rahm -4 7.87/1
Rory McIlroy -4 11.010/1
Rickie Fowler -4 21.020/1
Sepp Straka -4 65.064/1
Patrick Rodgers -4 75.074/1
Jordan Spieth -3 34.033/1
-3 and 44.043/1 bar

Jon Rahm didn't convert his two-stroke 36-hole lead in this event in 2021 but it can't be described as a failure. He stretched his lead to six through 54-holes but then had to withdraw having tested positive for Covid.

Collin Morikawa won the Workday Charity Open here having led by three at halfway in 2020 but like Jason Dufner here before him in 2017 in this event, and David Lingmerth in 2015, Morikawa lost his lead in round three before bouncing back to take the title on Sunday.

Muirfield Village is not an easy place to make the running and we have to go all the way back to Steve Stricker in 2011 to find the last winner to lead after both rounds two and three. Striker led by three after 36 and 54 holes before eventually winning by a stroke.

With that in mind, the halfway leader, Justin Suh, who's in search of his first victory on the PGA Tour, looks opposable today, although he might be one to consider tomorrow if he slips back a bit given the manner of Dufner, Lingmerth and Morikawa's recent victories.

With Muirfield form figures reading 35-4-1-7-32-1-3, it's no surprise to see Patrick Cantlay in-the-mix again and he's the correct favourite. He's been in fine form since finishing third at the Genesis Invitational back in February and although he trails by two, he's the man to beat.

One strong angle in I looked at before the off was form on the Florida Swing and Suh, Cantlay, and the man currently sitting second, Hideki Matsuyama, all had top-five finishes there earlier in the year and the Japanese is the one I looked at the closest.

The elite ball striker looked a fair price at 50.049/1 before the off but he ranked 76th for Strokes Gained Putting and 68th for Putting Average last time out at the US PGA Championship and that was off-putting.

Matsuyama's tee-to-green game is always solid and he's a terrific scrambler so when the putter heats up he tends to contend strongly and that's been the case here.

Matsuyama holed a number of lengthy putts yesterday and at the halfway stage, he ranks 12th for both SGP and PA. He also ranks second for Greens In Regulation and first for Scrambling so if he maintains his touch on the greens over the weekend, he'll win his second Memorial Tournament title, nine years after winning his first on debut.

The 2020 winner, Jon Rahm, and the world number three, Rory McIlroy are huge dangers from four back and I much prefer the chances of Rahm, who plays the course so well but neither can be described as brilliantly priced given the traffic they need to pass.

It's a tough tournament to untangle at this stage but I was happy to have a tiny bet on Austria's Sepp Straka, at 70.069/1, who sits alongside Rahm and Rory.

Having recently finished seventh at the US PGA Championship and having finished fifth in the Honda Classic on the Florida Swing, he was another outsider I looked at closely before the off so I'm happy to throw a few pounds in his direction at a big price now he's in-the-mix.

19:25 - June 2, 2023

The second round of the European Open is all done and dusted and the first-round leader, Max Kieffer, is still in front. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 19:20.

Max Kieffer -6 6.25/1
Jordan Smith -5 5.39/2
David Law -5 13.012/1
Tom McKibbin -5 13.012/1
Ewen Ferguson -3 20.019/1
Kristian Krogh Johannessen -3 34.033/1
Matthew Baldwin -3 36.035/1
Paul Waring -3 40.039/1
Santiago Tarrio -3 48.047/1
Alex Bjork -2 18.535/2
Robert Macintyre -2 22.021/1
Joost Luiten -2 24.023/1
-2 and 40.039/1 bar

The Green Eagle layout is a strange one.

Now that the fourth hole has been converted form a par four to a par five, there are six par fives (four on the back-nine) but that doesn't equal birdies and eagles galore and it isn't an easy track by any means.

At the halfway stage, half of the long holes are averaging over-par and scoring is tough. And if the truth be told, it's a hard watch.

It's a grind to play and a grind to watch but it is possible to go low here if every clicks.

So tricky was it on day one that Kieffer led after an opening four-under-par 69 but Paul Waring climbed up more than 50 places today, thanks to an impressive seven-under-par 66, and Kalle Samooja won the title 12 months ago from seven shots back when he shot 64 on Sunday.

The 2017 winner, Jordan Smith, heads the halfway market and odds in excess of 4/1 are more than fair if he kicks on over the weekend like he did back in October to win the Portugal Masters by three strokes but he shot 80 at the KLM Open last Friday to miss the cut and this isn't a venue where you can get away with any sloppy play.

Kieffer, who won the Czech Masters last August, is in search of just his second DP World Tour title but he looks short enough given he never impresses in-contention and it's hard to see Law backing up today's brilliance.

Law's round really was remarkable today. He shot 30 on the back-nine (his first nine) and he posted his 66 despite bogeying his last two holes!

As many as 79 players have made the cut and having seen what Law's done today and what Samooja did 12 months ago, even those that made it on the number (+4) will feel they still have a chance, albeit a very slim one, and this feels like an event to be very wary of.

I'm tempted by Matt Cooper's each-way fancy, Ewen Ferguson, and Robert Macintyre's an interesting prospect too. He led this event by four at halfway back in 2019 before going on to finish second to Paul Casey and he shot a very decent 68 today to put himself on the fringes of contention. Both are interesting candidates at in excess of 20.019/1 but I'm happy to sit on my hands for now.

The second round of the Memorial Tournament is well underway and the 2014 winner, Hideki Matsuyama, has hit the front after a brilliant (and rare) putting display in round two. I'll look at that one at the halfway stage tomorrow.

09:30 - June 2, 2023

Anyone that layed the world number two, Jon Rahm, at a high of 18.017/1 when he made back-to-back bogeys around the turn or dived in on Rory McIlroy at just 6.611/2 after he'd birdied the par five 15th to get to three-under-par yesterday, will be well aware that things can change quickly at the Memorial Tournament.

Rahm, who started his first round at the 10th hole yesterday morning, bounced back with birdies at the second, third and seventh holes to turn his day around and after posting a two-under-par 70 that sees him sitting tied for tenth, he's the 6.611/2 favourite after day one.

In contrast, Rory made a mess of the tough 18th, where he recorded a triple-bogey seven to tumble down to a tie for 33rd and he trails the first-round leader, Davis Riley, by five.

For the second year-in-a-row, Riley's five-under-par 67 sees him leading after round but one but having been tied at the top with five others 12 months ago, he's all alone in front this time around with Matt Wallace alone in second.

Mood @DavisRiley68 fires a 5-under 67 and holds a one-shot lead @MemorialGolf. pic.twitter.com/6sQ5ZjB5Yu

? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 1, 2023

As a further indication of how things can change around Muirfield Village, none of the six players to lead after the opening day last year finished inside the top-12 and Riley and Cam Smith, who finished tied for 13th, were the only two to finish inside the top-25!

Although there's always plenty of volatility on the leaderboards, history suggests you can't give up too much ground early on and Jim Furyk, way back in 2002, is the last players to win here having started the week with a round over 70. He sat tied for 19th following an opening one-under-par 71.

William McGirt, who won the title in 2016, was tied for 44th after an opening 70 and Billy Horschel sat tied for 21st after firing 70 on day one 12 months ago but history suggests Rory's up against it after his opening 72.

Although it looks wide-open, I couldn't resist taking a triple-figure price about the prolific Englishman, Danny Willett, who sits tied for third after round one.

Like last year's winner, Billy Horschel, and many a Muirfield contender, Willett is a winner at Wentworth but that wasn't the only reason I liked the 2016 US Masters winner.

Willett is a mercurial character who blows hot and cold, and he could very easily back up yesterday's 69 with a 79 today but he does have a habit of winning big events out of the blue and 110.0109/1 is just too big to ignore this morning.

Over on the DP World Tour, the second round of the European Open is well underway and I'll be back this evening with a look at that one at the halfway stage.

European Open Pre-Event Selection:
Jorge Campillo @ 46.045/1

In-Play Picks:
Marcel Siem @ 13.012/1
Jeong weon Ko @ 180.0179/1

Memorial Tournament Pre-Event Selection:
Tyrrell Hatton @ 32.031/1

In-Play Picks:
Danny Willett @ 110.0109/1
Sepp Straka @ 70.069/1
Hideki Matsuyama @ 25.024/1
Justin Suh @ 150.0149/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
2 u Gary Woodland @ 170.0169/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1u Nicolai Hojgaard @ 460.0459/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1u Eric Cole @ 460.0459/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 2 u Deon Germishuys @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter