The Punter's In-Play Blog: Viktor value to nab it from Niemann

10:30 - February 20, 2022

Despite a slightly unconvincing back-nine, after a brilliant eagle at the 10th, 23-year-old Chilean, Joaquin Niemann, still leads the Genesis Invitational by three. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:25.

Joaquin Niemann -19 1.434/9
Cameron Young -16 6.411/2
Viktor Hovland -13 14.013/1
Justin Thomas -12 26.025/1
Collin Morikawa -11 50.049/1
-10 and 190.0189/1 bar

The overall stats suggest Niemann might be a bit short at around 1.434/9, although his own record is fair...

Niemann was two clear with a round to go when he won the now defunct A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier in 2019 (his sole success to date) but he lost a playoff at the Rocker Mortgage Classic last year having been tied for the lead through 54-holes.

We have to go all the way back to Hal Sutton's victory in the US PGA Championship in 1983 for the last wire-to-wire winner at Riviera and the last man to win this event after leading through rounds one, two and three was Charlie Sifford in 1969.

So far this century, as many as eight players have led this event by three strokes or more. None of the eight broke 70 and only four went on to win. And the three men to lead by three - Davis Love (2001), Charles Howell III (2003) and Bill Haas (2013) - were all beaten - shooting 75, 73 and 73 in round four.

Since 1996, 128 players have taken a three-stroke lead into the final round of a 72-hole PGA Tour event (including co-sanctioned tournaments) and 66 (51.5%) of them went on to convert suggesting Niemann is short enough but it's far from that straightforward with circumstances varying considerably.

For example, when Russell Henley led the Wyndham Championship by three strokes in August, there were 14 players withing five of him and he was caught by five players trailing between four and six strokes before losing the playoff. We go into today's final round with only one player within five of Niemann and he's a PGA Tour rookie.

Other than a double-bogey five at the 16th hole yesterday, Cameron Young has done little wrong, and given both his wins on the Korn Ferry Tour last year were wire-to-wire, it might not be wise to discount him. This isn't the first time he's been within three with a round to go on the PGA Tour though and so far, he's zero from three.

Young was second and just one off the lead at the Sanderson Farms Championship in October before finishing second and while it's impossible to crab that performance, he'll be disappointed with his last two efforts.

Young shot 77 to fall from fifth to 40th at the American Express in January before a 73 in round four at the Farmers the following week saw him slip from eighth to 20th.

Viktor Hovland sits alone in third and six off the lead and that's a huge gap to bridge without help from the leader but he has a very recent habit of winning from off the pace.

Hovland came from six back to win the Hero World Challenge in December when Collin Morikawa threw away a five-stroke advantage and he was also six adrift at the Dubai Desert Classic before winning at the end of January so should he go on to win today it would be his third victory in three months having trailed by six with a round to go.

I'm not going to paw through the record books but I suspect that would be a first.

Justin Thomas was the last player to blow a big lead here. The world number eight led by four through 54-holes three years ago before a 75 in round four saw him beaten by a stroke so he knows he's not out of this, even though he trails by seven.

And having lost a five stroke lead in December, Collin Morikawa also knows that clear leaders can always slip up but from eight adrift, he may just have too much on his plate.

It's going to be fascinating to see if Niemann can convert and how he plays the straightforward opening hole may be key but the value surely sits with Hovland this morning.

After a slow start, Viktor's really got his skates on, and he has the recent experience of twice winning from six strokes back. The Norwegian is no bigger than 10/1 on the High Street so 14.013/1 on the exchange is decent and worth chancing.

Viktor Hovland: -13 in rounds 2 and 3 this week, best by any player at Riviera in middle 2 rounds since Fred Couples in 1990 (also -13)

? Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) February 19, 2022

10:45 - February 19, 2022

We've reached the halfway stage of the Genesis Invitational and the field is considerably stretched.

There are 16 strokes separating the leader, Joaquin Niemann, and the 16 players that made the cut on the number and the four players tied for 10th are trailing by ten!

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:40.

Joaquin Niemann -16 2.245/4
Cameron Young -14 7.87/1
Justin Thomas -11 5.69/2
Jordan Spieth -9 17.016/1
Adam Scott -9 25.024/1
Collin Morikawa -8 19.018/1
Viktor Hovland -7 36.035/1
Cameron Smith -7 36.035/1
Russell Knox -7 200.0199/1
-6 and 150.0149/1 bar

This is a very tricky puzzle to solve.

Joaquin Niemann will be wondering what he needs to do to shake off the rest given he's opened up with back-to-back eight under-par 63s and he's only two in front.

He's a strong favourite and rightly so but this isn't an easy place to win from the front and I'm happy to swerve him.

Dustin Johnson, in 2017, is the only 36-hole leader or co-leader to go on to win in the last 13 years and Niemann's record is only OK when leading at this stage. He's been in front or tied for the lead four times but he went on to win only once - at the now defunct Greenbrier event in 2019.

Cameron Young is his nearest pursuer and he's very much a surprise contender. Playing Riviera for the first and with only ordinary 2022 form reading MC-40-20-26, the PGA Tour rookie was understandably trading at around 400.0399/1 before the off, having been matched at a high of 600.0599/1.

The New-York born 24-year-old won back-to-back Korn Ferry Tour events in May last year to graduate to the PGA Tour for the first time but this is a huge ask and backing up yesterday's fabulous nine-under-par 62 is going to take some doing today.

If the leader is going to get reeled in it's more likely to be by one of the elite players in his slipstream but picking one out is tough.

Justin Thomas is the obvious candidate but he led by four with a round to go here three years and blew it. He was trading at just 1.182/11 before round four but a 75 on Sunday saw him slip to second and he missed the cut in both the subsequent renewals.

Whether that has any bearing on his performance over the weekend is debatable but it's certainly something to consider.

Jordan Spieth hit a low of 7.06/1 when he eagled the 11th late in the day yesterday but his irons weren't great after that and as well as he scrambled, there was an air of inevitability about his dropped shot on 18. His touch around the green was phenomenal but he can't keep saving himself.

Adam Scott is seeking his third win in the event, so clearly commands respect, and it's impossible to write off either Collin Morikawa or Viktor Hovland, but I'm happy to leave the event alone for now.

I had a small bet on Hovland before the off so I'll cheer him on but other than that, it feels like a tournament to be wary of at this stage.

11:25 - February 18, 2022

The morning starters on day one of the Genesis Invitational shot an average of 0.6 strokes better than their afternoon counterparts but the disadvantage of a late start didn't stop world number 32, Joaquin Niemann, who opened the event with a sensational eight-under-par 63 to lead by three.

Here's the early leaderboard with prices to back at 11:15.

Joaquin Niemann -8 6.25/1
Scottie Scheffler -5 13.012/1
Jordan Spieth -5 16.531/2
Max Homa -5 22.021/1
Cameron Young -5 50.049/1
Justin Thomas -4 12.011/1
Cameron Smith -4 14.527/2
Collin Morikawa -4 15.014/1
-4 and 17.533/2 bar

As many as four first round leaders have gone on to win the Genesis Invitational in the last 13 years but they all lost the lead after rounds two or three before bouncing back to win and we haven't seen a wire-to-wire winner here this century.

We've seen four men lead by three after the opening round this century - Fred Couples (2003), Padraig Harrington (2007), Camilo Villegas (2016) and Matt Kuchar (2020) - and all four were beaten.

Couples finished third, Harrington seventh, Villegas 37th, and Kuchar second and last year's first round leader, Sam Burns, who led by two, eventually finished third but he came very close to winning wire-to-wire.

Burns extended his lead to five at halfway, he was still two strokes clear with a round to go and he was only beaten by one, having traded at a low of 1.4840/85 and the winner, Max Homa, who's in-contention again this time around, started nicely too.

Homa sat second after round one, he was tied for sixth after round two (trailing Burns by six) and he was sitting second with a round to go but it's perfectly possible to win from off the pace here.

Tony Finau, who was beaten in extra time 12 months ago, sat tied for 47th and seven adrift after round one, the 2020 winner, Adam Scott, sat 65th and eight back after the opening round and the 2012 and 2014 winners, Bill Haas and Bubba Watson, both sat outside the top-30 after round one.

What Niemann does when he tees off this morning (15:24 UK time) is going to be fascinating and he's highly likely to extend his lead. The opening hole is a par five and it's far and away the easiest hole on the course. It averaged just 4.16 yesterday and the vast majority of the field picked up at least a stroke there.

I've had a tiny play on Jason Kokrak at 42.041/1, who was on the shortlist before the event, but that's my only in-running involvement so far.

Trailing by four, Kokrak is one of six players tied for sixth and he's no bigger than 30/1 on the High Street.

Kokrak traded at odds-on here in 2016 when finishing second but he's learnt how to win since then, claiming three PGA Tour titles in the last 16 months.

I'll be back with another look at the halfway stage tomorrow.

Pre-Event Selections:
Rory McIlroy @ 26.025/1
Rory McIlroy - First Round Leader 28/1 (each-way with the Sportsbook)
Hideki Matsuyama 29.028/1
Viktor Hovland @ 30.029/1

In-Running Play:
Jason Kokrak @ 42.041/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 2 u Abraham Ancer @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 2u Patrick Reed @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 1 u Joel Dahmen @ 400.0399/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back ½ u Charles Schwartzel @ 1000.0999/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

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