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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Is Scheffler all set to make it make it five?

Steven Rawlings
29 May 2022

Scottie Scheffler in action in round three

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World number one, Scottie Scheffler, will take a two-stroke lead into the final round in Texas but is he a safe bet at odds-on?

“Although Scheffler failed to convert a one-stroke lead at the Houston Open in November, he won the US Masters nicely having led by three in April and I expect a similar professional performance today.”

08:30 - May 29, 2022

It took until the 53rd hole of the Charles Schwab Challenge for Scottie Scheffler to drop a shot around Colonial Country Club but he responded brilliantly with a birdie at the 54th hole to re-establish his two-stroke lead. Here's the state of play in Texas with a round to go...

Scottie Scheffler -11 1.834/5
Brendon Todd -9 10.09/1
Scott Stallings -9 12.5
Harold Varner III -8 13.012/1
Patrick Reed -7 25.024/1
Chris Kirk -7 27.026/1
Cam Davis -7 55.054/1
John Huh -7 70.069/1
Mito Pereira -6 55.054/1
Davis Riley -6 55.054/1
Beau Hossler -6 150.0149/1
Jordan Spieth -5 60.059/1
-6 and 220.0219/1 bar

The last two 54-hole leaders of the Charles Schwab Challenge failed to convert and although three of the four third round leaders converted between 2016 and 2019, the previous seven were all beat, offering hope to anyone wishing to take on the world number one at odds-on. Although it could easily be false hope...

At the turn of the century, Phil Mickelson won having trailed by six with a round to go in 2000 and Sergio Garcia won from five back 12 months later but since then, we've seen only two winners trailing by as many as three strokes through 54 holes (Chris Kirk in 2015 and Kevin Kisner in 2017) and every other winner has been within two.

Having backed Max Homa with a round to go at the Wells Fargo Championship at 3.9, K.H Lee in the Byron Nelson at 20.019/1 after round one, and Justin Thomas last week though 54 holes at 40.039/1, I'm looking for a fourth in-play winner in-a-row on the PGA Tour with Brendon Todd (backed at 100.099/1 on Friday) and he's the man most likely to capitalize should Scheffler stutter but I'm not convinced he will.

As Justin Ray highlighted in the below tweet yesterday, what Scheffler is on the brink of achieving is really quite remarkable but there's nothing to really suggest he'll fail to convert from here.

Scottie Scheffler is tied for the lead at Colonial.

With a win this week, he would be the first player since Tom Watson in 1980 to reach 5 PGA Tour wins in a season before June 1.
? Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) May 27, 2022

At 1.558/15, Jordan Spieth, leading Jason Kokrak by a stroke and the rest by five, was a shorter price at this stage last year but Scheffler is playing far better, more consistent golf than Spieth was 12 months ago and he looks a fair price to convert.

Although Scheffler failed to convert a one-stroke lead at the Houston Open in November, he won the US Masters nicely having led by three in April and I expect a similar professional performance today.

20:45 - May 28, 2022

The halfway leader of the Dutch Open, Ricardo Gouveia, was matched at a low of 4.67/2 when he eagled the fourth hole in round three today, but he lost his way quite badly after that though, playing the next ten holes in five-over par.

Despite the poor run in the middle of the round, after a birdie at the 18th, Gouveia's only one on the day, he trails by just two with a round to go. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 20:40.

Victor Perez -10 5.59/2
Matt Wallace -10 5.79/2
Ryan Fox -9 6.25/1
Guido Migliozzi -9 10.519/2
Sebastian Soderberg -9 11.010/1
Scott Hend -9 20.019/1
Adrian Meronk -8 11.521/2
Alexander Bjork -8 17.5
Ricardo Gouveia -8 30.029/1
Marcel Schneider -7 50.049/1
Mikko Korhonen -6 65.064/1
Kristoffer Broberg -6 80.079/1
-5 and 100.099/1 bar

The finishing line is getting nearer but it isn't getting any easier to gauge who might end the week in front.

Victor Perez is the narrow favourite but I'd just favour the other co-leader, Matt Wallace, although both are there to be shot at.

victor perez valderrama 2021.jpg

Perez's sole success came in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2019, when he got the better of Matthew Southgate on Sunday in what developed into a duel, whereas Wallace is looking to win his fifth DP World Tour event. Although he hasn't tasted victory since 2018.

I was desponadant about the chances of halfway pick, Ryan Fox, after he opened up round three with back-to-back bogeys and my other in-play selection, Guido Migliozzi, took his time to get going today but both are now within just one of the lead and in with a decent chance.

Sebastian Soderberg's feast or famine spell continues and after his second-place finish at the British Masters and his missed cut in Belgium last time out, he's on the premises again and in search of his second DP World Tour victory.

Soderberg's sole success came in Switzerland at the Omega European Masters in 2019 when he won a five-man playoff so a bunched finish shouldn't faze the Swede.

The halfway favourite, Adrian Meronk, made a pair of double-bogeys, at the second and the 17th today, but he played OK in the main and he could bounce back tomorrow and take his first title.

Alexander Bjork, the winner of the China Open in 2018, is another in search of title number two and nobody would begrudge the amiable Australian veteran, Scott Hend, another victory but I'm happy to add three players a bit further back.

We can probably expect all sorts of drama again tomorrow, as is usually the case on this Tour, so laying anyone that starts well and trades short may be the way to go and it's also possible that we get an off the pace winner.

With light winds and a drop of rain in the forecast, the conditions should really favour the frontrunners but I'm happy to throw a few pounds at Mikko Korhonen, Rasmus Hojgaard, and the defending champ, Kristoffer Broberg at huge odds.

All are capable of mounting a challenge from off the pace and as we saw yesterday when Haotong Li shot 63 in round two, and last year when Broberg fired a 61 in round three, this course can yield low scores.

Broberg and Korhonen trail by only four strokes and Hojgaard is five back and that's how many he trailed by when he won the UK Championship in 2020. And he sat tied for 15th and four adrift when winning the Omega European Masters last August.

11:30 - May 28, 2022

We've reached the halfway stage of the Charles Schwab Challenge and the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, is the man to beat. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:25.

Scottie Scheffler -9 3.211/5
Beau Hossler -9 13.5
Scott Stallings -9 14.013/1
Patrick Reed -8 11.010/1
Chris Kirk -7 15.014/1
Pat Perez -7 40.039/1
Viktor Hovland -7 12.5
Harold Verner III -6 25.024/1
Davis Riley -6 27.026/1
Cam Davis -6 46.045/1
Max McGreevy -6 190.0189/1
Jordan Spieth -5 14.5
Webb Simpson -5 34.033/1
Jon Huh -5 220.0219/1
-4 and 80.079/1 bar

Recent history suggests you need to be up with the pace to win at Colonial.

Kevin Kisner was tied for the lead at this stage before winning in 2017 and Justin Rose led by a stroke before kicking on to take the title 12 months later. The last three winners were all trailing at halfway and so too was Jordan Spieth in 2016 but the last six winners have all been within three of the lead.

Only one of the last six winners (Daniel Berger 2020 - 7th) has been outside the top-four at the halfway stage, suggesting that we need to be focussing on the very top of the leaderboard but with windy, dry and tough conditions forecasted throughout the weekend, I'm far from convinced.

Add in that Scottie Scheffler is zero from five when tied for the lead through two rounds, that pre-event 350.0349/1 chance, Scott Stallings, hasn't won for eight years, that fellow 350.0349/1 shot, Beau Hossler, is yet to win, and that Patrick Reed is emerging from a bit of a slump, and there are reasons to think we can scan a bit further down the leaderboard.

Scheffler is, of course, the man to beat. He's only ever held a clear lead once before and he made no mistake, converting a five-stroke 36-hole lead at Augusta in April, and he's bogey-free so far this week.

Odds of around 2/1 are perfectly fair and the Texan will have no issues at all with playing in the wind, but will he be vulnerable to one or two others with a bit more course experience?

We've seen winners come from six, seven and even eight strokes back at halfway here this century when the wind has been a factor and I can't help but think Jordan Spieth is a fair price at 15.014/1 given he went off slightly shorter.

Spieth's game was a bit ragged yesterday but, other than an eight-footer missed on the sixth hole, he putted well and that was my big concern before the off.

On his two previous visits to Colonial, Scheffler finished 55th in 2020 and he missed the cut last year whereas Spieth is playing the event for a tenth time, and prior to this week, he had Charles Schwab Challenge form figures reading 7-14-2-1-2-32-8-10-2.

Viktor Hovland and the bang-in-form maiden, Davis Riley, were others I considered but I'm happy to get behind Spieth and see where we are tomorrow.

21:30 - May 27, 2022

It looked for much of Friday as though Haotong Li's fabulous nine-under-par 63 in the morning would set the standard at halfway at the Dutch Open but afternoon starter, Ricardo Gouveia birdied two of his last three holes to back up Thursday morning's 68 with a six-under-par 66 to hit the front. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 21:20.

Ricardo Gouveia -10 10.09/1
Haotong Li -9 8.07/1
Adrian Meronk -8 6.86/1
Matt Wallace -8 13.5
Ryan Fox -7 10.09/1
Victor Perez -7 17.016/1
Mikko Korhonen -7 18.017/1
Guido Migliozzi -7 28.027/1
Jack Senior -7 34.033/1
Jordan Smith -6 18.017/1
Alexander Bjork -6 29.028/1
Marcel Schneider -6 55.054/1
-5 and 40.039/1

Kristoffer Broberg led the Dutch Open by a stroke at this stage last year, on the first occasion the event was staged at Bernardus Golf, and Gouveia will be delighted if he can get anywhere close to the Swede's third round score.

Broberg scooted eight clear of the field with a remarkable 11-under-par 61 on Saturday and although there was quite a wobble on Sunday, that was enough of an advantage to see him close out the event in the end.

This is the first time that Gouveia has led at this stage of a DP World Tour event and he's still in search of his first title on this Tour.

He's twice led on the Challenge Tour through 36 holes without converting and he finished third at the Challenge Costa Brava last October (beaten by four) having led by a stroke with a round to go but he does know how to win. He's won five times on the Challenge Tour but all of his wins have come from off the pace.

It's great to see Haotong Li back in-contention again but he's flattered to deceive a few times of late and the one I like amongst the leading group is New Zealand's Ryan Fox, who's been in terrific form for a while now.

Ryan Fox.jpg

The Kiwi won the Ras al Khaimah Classic in February and prior to last week's 54th in the US PGA Championship, he had form figures since his win reading 15-9-8-2 on the DP World Tour.

I suspect Fox will hang around over the weekend and 10.09/1 is a perfectly fair price.

In addition to backing Fox, I've also had a small bet on Italy's Guido Migliozzi at 30.029/1. Migliozzi was a pick for the Find Me a 100 Winner column last time out in Belgium and although he tailed off to finish 52nd, there were definitely signs of encouragement.

It's less than a year since the two time DP World Tour winner finished fourth in the US Open and he's a fair price to claim his third title.

10:35 - May 27, 2022

The second round of the Dutch Open is well underway, and I'll be back later today to look at that event once they've reached the halfway stage but for now I'm concentrating on the Charles Schwab Challenge where world number one, Scottie Scheffler, is one of eight men tied at the top.

With the rough up, the course playing firm, and the wind proving troublesome, four-under-par was the best anyone could muster at Colonial Country Club yesterday and that's the first time since 2000 that a 66 was enough to lead the way.

On that occasion, John Cook held the solo lead before going on to finish eighth and if we are to see one of the eight go on to take the title, it will be the first time a first-round leader has won in ten years.

Jordan Spieth led through rounds one, two and three 12 months ago before finishing second and that's the closest any first-round leader has come to winning since Zach Johnson won the second of his two titles in 2012.

With eight players tied at the top and as many as 25 players within two of the lead, patience is required but I have had a couple of small early in-play wagers.

There's barely any wind forecasted today so we could see a very different day with much lower scores posted so we could be surveying a very different leaderboard tomorrow and I'm happy to chance two morning starters at huge prices...

As highlighted in the preview, the average age of the winners here is 36 which is a good omen for one of the leaders, the current second favourite, Webb Simpson, but I've plumped for a 36-year-old at a much bigger price - Brendon Todd at 100.099/1.

Todd sits on two-under-par and just two off the lead and so too does Martin Trainer who is simply too big for a PGA Tour winner at 500.0499/1.

Dutch Open Pre-Event Selections:
Bernd Wiesberger @ 24.023/1
Thorbjorn Olesen @ 34.033/1
Nicolai Hojgaard @ 55.054/1

In-PLay Picks;
Ryan Fox @ 10.09/1
Guido Migliozzi @ 30.029/1
Mikko Korhonen @ 65.064/1
Kritoffer Broberg @ 80.079/1
Rasmus Hojgaard @ 100.099/1