The Punter's In-Play Blog: Macintyre four clear in Maryland

• Stats suggest Scotsman a fair price

• Halfway pick, Penge, on the premises in Denmark

• Norwegian chanced for another off the pace success

09:30 - August 17, 2025

Scottie Scheffler momentarily went odds-on again during round three of the BMW Championship as he looked to close the gap on the runaway leader, Robert Macintyre, but having trailed by five at halfway, three strokes was as close as it got during the third round, before Macintyre birdied the last to stretch his advantage back to four.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:20.

Robert Macintyre -16 1.68/13
Scottie Scheffler -12 3.1511/5
Ludvig Aberg -10 23.022/1
Sam Burns -8 160.0159/1
Harry Hall -8 260.0259/1
-7 and 420.0419/1 bar

It's impossible to rule out the world number one, Scheffler, but four strokes is a big lead and Macintyre is very fairly priced at 1.68/13.

Over the last 30 years, 69 players have held a four-stroke lead in a 72-hole stroke play event on the PGA Tour and 52 of them went on to win.

That's an impressive enough strike rate of 75% and the last 10 to hold a four-stroke lead all went on to win.

Min Woo Lee was the last man to convert a four-stroke lead, at the Houston Open at the end of March, but Gary Woodland, who shot 62, and Scheffler, 63, narrowed the margin to just a stroke. Scheffler had began the day trailing by five in a tie for third having led by a stroke at halfway.

All things considered, Macintyre is fairly priced and I'm happy to leave the event alone.

Over on the DP World Tour, my halfway pick, Marco Penge, hit a low of 2.0421/20 when he took the lead at the Danish Championship after three birdies in four holes from the fifth but a missed fairway on 11 led to a bogey five and the 36 hole leader, Rasmus Hojgaard, edged back ahead with a birdie at the 17^th. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 9:25.

Rasmus Hojgaard -13 1.991/1
Marco Penge -12 2.727/4
Ben Schmidt -9 26.025/1
Nicklas Norgaard -8 32.031/1
Johannes Veerman -8 55.054/1
Mikael Lindberg -8 80.079/1
Gregorio De Leo -8 110.0109/1
-7 and 110.0109/1

I'm happy to stick with Penge today and I haven't given up Niklas Norgaard, who finished nicely yesterday after a slow start, but I've also added a small wager on the Soudal Open winner, Kristoffer Reitan, at a triple figure price.

The Norwegian shot 62 in round four in Belgium in May before winning in extra time having sat tied for 22^nd and nine adrift with 18 to play and he shot 60 in round four at the Austrian Open the week after to move up from 14^th to second so we know he can go super low on a Sunday.

He'll need some help from the leaders but trailing by seven in a tie for 10^th, he'll be well aware that he's close enough to put in a charge.

The live coverage on Sky starts at 11:00 UK time, 40 minutes before the leaders tee off.

09:45 - August 16, 2025

After a weather delay on Thursday, pre-event 85.084/1 chance, Robert Macintyre, was trading at 16/117.00 to win the BMW Championship when I called it a day and went to bed.

It looked a tempting price given the rain softened course was likely to play a bit easy than it had earlier in the day and I regret not taking it now as he finished his first round with six birdies in-a-row to post an eight-under-par 62!

Macintyre then picked up on Friday morning where he'd left off on Thursday evening and after a quite brilliant bogey-free six-under-par 64, he leads by five with just two rounds to play.

The world number one, Scottie Scheffler, who was matched at odds-on on Thursday, is Macintyre's closest challenger after he posted a bogey-free 65 in the afternoon and it's going to be fascinating to see if Macintyre can convert.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:30.

Robert Macintyre -14 2.285/4
Scottie Scheffler -9 2.89/5
Ludvig Aberg -8 12.011/1
Hideki Matsuyama -7 32.031/1
Tommy Fleetwood -6 36.035/1
-6 and 55.054/1 bar

In the last 30 years, 29 players have led by five through two rounds on the PGA Tour and 20 of them went on to win.

The sample size isn't huge but that's a strike rate of more than 69% suggesting Macintyre is a fair price at odds against but it's never that simple.

How many of those 29 were being chased by the best player on the planet? And it may be worth highlighting that six of the last 10 players to lead by five at this stage failed to convert.

If forced to pick one of the two market leaders, I'd side with Scheffler but the best value at halfway looks to sit with the man in fourth, Hideki Matsuyama, at 33/134.00.

The Japanese won the Genesis Invitational last year having trailed by eight at halfway and by six with 18 to play, he won the Sony Open in 2022 having trailed by six at this stage, and he lost a playoff at the St Jude Invitational in 2021 having trailed by 10 strokes at halfway and by nine with a round to go, so we know he's capable of closing a gap over the weekend.

Over on the DP World Tour, after rounds of 66-64 around Furesø Golf Club, the 2023 winner, Rasmus Hojgaard, leads the Danish Championship by two strokes over the first-round leader, Marco Penge, at the halfway stage and it already looks like a two-man tussle.

Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 9:40.

Rasmus Hojgaard -12 2.01/1
Marco Penge -10 3.5551/20
Aaron Cockerill -7 42.041/1
Nicklas Norgaard -6 23.022/1
Adrien Saddier -6 32.031/1
Maximilian Steinlechner -6 60.059/1
-5 and 60.059/1

Given their obvious quality, it's very hard to look passed the front two on the leaderboard and the value sits with the man in second at around 5/23.50.

Hojgaard has been tied for the lead at halfway four times (three times on the DP World Tour and once on the HotelPlanner Tour) and he led the 2022 Open de France by six strokes through 36 holes, but he failed to kick on and win on every occasion.

He'll enjoy the support of the home crowd, and he may well take the title for a second time, but he looks short enough at even money.

Penge, who won his first DP World Tour title at the Hainan Classic in April in impressive fashion, by three strokes, is far and away the most likely man to capitalise should Rasmus fail over the weekend and I've backed him at 3.613/5 but I'm also happy to take a tiny chance on last year's British Masters winner, Niclas Norgaard.

The 33-year-old Dane clearly enjoys a tree-lined test, and he looks fractionally big at anything over 20/121.00.

The majority of the immediate chasers are inexperienced and hard to fancy so although he'll need plenty of help from the front two, Norgaard is the very obvious alternative to the leading duo.

The leaders tee off in Denmark at 11:40 UK time, 10 minutes after the live coverage starts on Sky.

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