The Punter's In-Play Blog: Too close to call in Texas

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There's just one round to play at the Houston Open, so Steve Rawlings is back with his final in-running thoughts on this week's PGA Tour golf here...

09:40 - Match 29, 2026

The halfway leader of the Houston Open, Gary Woodland, did very little wrong in round three, shooting a five-under-par 65, but after bogeying his opening hole of round three, Denmark's Nicolai Hojgaard posted a seven-under-par 63 to close to within one and it looks like a two-man race with 18 to play.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 09:30.

Gary Woodland -18 2.26/5
Nicolai Hojgaard -17 2.26/5
Min Woo Lee -12 26.025/1
Michael Thorbjornsen -12 42.041/1
Jason Day -11 90.089/1
Sam Stevens -11 160.0159/1
-10 and 300.0299/1 bar

This looks like a coin toss between the front two and I'm happy to leave the event alone.

The market is finding it tough to split Woodland and Hojgaard and that's understandable.

The major winner and four-time PGA Tour victor still leads by one but the 41-year-old hasn't won in almost seven years and he's bound to feel the heat today.

This is the sixth time he's looked to convert a 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour and should he go on to win today he'll have a 50% strike rate.

His first success came at the Reno Tahoe Open in 2013, when he went in to the final round of the Stableford event leading by two points and he won the US Open at Pebble Beach in 2019 having led by a stroke with a round to go.

In contrast, Hojgaard is in search of his first victory on the PGA Tour but he's a three-time winner on the DP World Tour and it's not difficult to make a case for the 25-year-old.

He's been in-contention with 18 to play in a PGA Tour event three times previously and although he hasn't yet won, he's fared ok on Sunday.

He finished second to Matt Wallace in the 2023 Corales Puntacana Championship, having been tied for the lead with a round to go, he finished second in the 2024 Farmer Insurance Open, having trailed by a stroke through 54 holes, and he finished third at the Phenix Open last month, having sat tied for second after round three.

On those three occasions, he shot rounds of 68, 70 and 68, so he was solid enough and maybe it's his turn.

The defending champion, Min Woo Lee, who shot a disappointing three-under-par 67 yesterday to slip to six off the lead, is the only other player trading at less than 40/141.00, but he'll need a super-low round and some help from the front two today, so having backed him yesterday at 5/16.00, I'm not hopeful.


15:20 - Match 28, 2026

The third round of the Indian Open has concluded on the DP World Tour and the defending champ, Eugenio Chacarra, is four clear with a round to go.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 15:15.

Eugenio Chacarra -10 1.584/7
Alex Fitzpatrick -6 8.415/2
MJ Daffue -6 16.015/1
Freddy Schott -5 26.025/1
David Law -5 28.027/1
Casey Jarvis -4 23.022/1
Andy Sullivan -4 32.031/1
Ewen Ferguson -4 46.045/1
Ian Walker -3 140.0139/1
-2 and 180.0179/1 bar

Given the last eight men to lead by four with 18 to play on the DP World Tour have all gone on to win, Charcarra is very generously priced at better than 1/21.50 but this is a quirky layout with danger lurking on almost every hole and that's enough of a concern to stop me wading in at odds-on.

Things can change very quickly and multiple shots can be dropped in minutes here so caution is most definitely advised.

It's obviously highly likely that the 26-year-old Spaniard will double up but he has some interesting candidates tied for second.

Alex Fitzpatrick is bidding to emulate his brother, Matt, who won the Valspar from three strokes back last week in Florida and MJ Daffue is bidding to match the achievements of fellow South Africans, Jayden Schaper and Casey Jarvis, who have both won back-to-back events this season.

Daffue won the DP World PGTI Open in India on the HotelPlanner Tour last week, a month after securing his maiden success in the NTT DATA Pro-Am in his homeland.

Daffue is bound to be feeling confident after his recent successes and he looks like a sporting alternative to the leader at 16.015/1.

Even further back, Scotland's Calum Hill has it all to do trailing by eight but I was happy to chance him modestly at a huge price.

The 31-year-old's form has been a bit in-and-out since his back-to-back second-place finishes in Bahrain and Qatar in February but he won the Joburg Open last year having sat tied for 15th and eight off the lead with 18 to play so he's capable of delivering from way off the pace on a Sunday.


09:50 - Match 28, 2026

The third round of the Indian Open is underway on the DP World Tour and it's currently live on Sky Sports in the UK.

The defending champ, Eugenio Chacarra, is currently leading and he's already been matched at odds-on.  I'll be back later today with a look at that event after 54 holes but for now and I'm going to concentrate on the Houston Open on the PGA Tour, where pre-event 110.0109/1 chance, Gary Woodland, leads by three.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 09:40.

Gary Woodland -13 3.5551/20
Nicolai Hojgaard -10 6.05/1
Jackson Suber -10 27.026/1
Min Woo Lee -9 5.95/1
Jason Day -9 16.015/1
Michael Thorbjornsen -8 15.014/1
Sam Stevens -8 24.023/1
-7 and 30.029/1 bar

This is the sixth time the Houston Open has been staged at Memorial Park and we've got a mixed bag of results to evaluate.

Tony Finau won wire-to-wire in 2024, the first course winner, Carlos Ortiz, in 2020, and Min Woo Lee last year, sat second at halfway, and Stephan Jaeger sat fourth, trailing by four, when he won here two years ago but the 2021 winner, Jason Kokrak, gives hope to anyone who's backed someone with work to do over the weekend.

Kokrak was matched at as high as 400.0399/1 when he sat tied for 25th and nine adrift through 36 holes before he shot 66-65 to win by two.

After finishing his second round with three birdies in-a-row, Woodland, who finished runner-up to Lee here last year, leads by three and he's obviously the man to beat.

He hasn't tasted success since the US Open at Pebble Beach back in 2019 but he'd caught the eye at the Valspar Championship last week when he finished 14th which was his best result since his 11th at the Charles Schwab Challenge in May last year.

This is the ninth time the 41-year-old has held a 36-hole lead or co-lead but it's the first time since he converted from the front at Pebble.

Anyone that kicks on to win a major having led by two at halfway has to be considered a reliable frontrunner, but that victory six years ago is the only occasion that he's gone on to win when leading or co-leading at halfway.

Woodland is the 88th player this century to lead a PGA Tour event by three strokes at halfway and he's bidding to become the 28th to convert, suggesting he's fairly priced at around 5/23.50 but I'm not interested in backing him that short given he hasn't won in almost seven years.

His closest challengers, Nicolai Hojgaard and Jackson Suber make little appeal either.

Hojgaard isn't especially reliable in-contention and Suber sat fifth at halfway last year before rounds of 70 and 73 saw him slip to 55th.

The defending champ and pre-event favourite, Lee, is the one I like at this stage and the industry-best 5/16.00 with the Sportsbook is a nice price.

In addition to backing Lee, I've also had a small wager on fellow Australian, Karl Vilips, who sits tied for eighth and six off the lead.

The 24-year-old has been a bit disappointing since winning the Puerto Rico Open in March last year but he's someone I expect to see win again sooner or later and he's an interesting contender at a huge price.

Leading by a stroke with 18 to play, he shot 64 on Sunday to win by three in Puerto Rico so he looks like someone we can back with confidence in-contention.


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