The Punter's In-Play Blog: Min Woo leads by four in Texas

• Leader fairly priced in Texas

• Scheffler chanced with 18 to play

• The Masters starts on April 10. Read Dave Tindall's guide to the 2025 Masters here!

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09:40 - March 30, 2025

World number one, Scottie Scheffler, begun round three of the Houston Open leading by a stroke and trading at odds-on but having been matched at as low as 1.84/5, he's now tied for third and trailing by five after Min Woo Lee shot a quite brilliant seven-under-par 63 to hit the front. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:30.

Min Woo Lee -17 1.511/2
Alejandro Tosti -13 19.537/2
Scottie Scheffler -12 7.06/1
Ryan Fox -12 32.031/1
Ryan Gerard -12 40.039/1
Keith Mitchell -11 70.069/1
-11 and 100.099/1 bar

All the stats suggest Min Woo Lee is a very fair price at 1/21.50.

He's failed to convert three co-leads in his career but on the three occasions that he's held a clear advantage he's gone on to win and since 1996, 68 players have held a four-stroke lead in a 72-hole stroke play event on the PGA Tour and 51 of them went on to win.

That's an impressive enough strike rate of 75% and the last nine to hold a four-stroke lead, including Tony Finau here in 2022, have all gone on to win.

There is, however, quite a sizeable fly in the ointment in the shape of Scheffler.

Although he trails by five, having begun the week trading at around 5.95/1, Scheffler looks a very fair alternative to the leader at 6/17.00.

Scheffler was four adrift with a round to go when he won Olympic Gold in Paris last year, five back when he defended his Players Championship title 12 months ago and he once won on the Korn Ferry Tour from six back.

Scheffler has been shortening up all morning and I was more than happy to back him at 7.413/2.

I'll be back tomorrow with the debrief.

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16:50 - March 29, 2025

There's just one round to go at the Indian Open and there are only five players under-par for the week. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 16:40.

Eugenio Chacarra -3 4.03/1
Keita Nakajima -2 4.47/2
Brandon Stone -1 6.411/2
Matthew Jordan -1 9.417/2
Jens Dantorp -1 14.013/1
Joost Luiten Ev 18.017/1
Adrien Saddier Ev 18.017/1
Andreas Halvorsen Ev 28.027/1
Troy Merritt Ev 40.039/1
+2 and 30.029/1 bar

The Gary Player Course at DLF Golf and Country Club is getting tougher and tougher as the week wares on and having averaged 74.48 on Thursday and 76.38 on Friday, it averaged only 76.59 today and only three players - Brandon Stone, Troy Merritt and Casey Jarvis - broke the par of 72. All three men shot 71.

There have been five previous renewals of this event at DLF and the course was used for both the Kapil Dev - Grant Thornton Invitational in 2022 and the International Series India in February and frontrunners have a great record.

As many as five of the seven winners were leading or tied for the lead through 54 holes and the furthest any of the seven trailed by with 18 to play is three strokes (Stephen Gallacher in this event in 2019).

That would suggest that the frontrunning Spaniard, Eugenio Chacarra, is a fair price at 3/14.00 but I'm happy to stick with the defending champion, Keita Nakajima, who trails by a stroke, although we definitely can't rule out an off the pace winner.

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview we've witnessed plenty of drama here in a short space of time and on a course playing so hard, anyone that can post level par for the tournament may have a chance.

I'm happy to stick with Nakajima who played nicely in-contention in Singapore last week but I've also had a small wager on the 39-year-old two-time PGA Tour winner, Troy Merritt.

Experience could count for plenty as the pressure builds in round four and the American looks a very fair price at 40.039/1 given he broke par today, that he only trails by three, and that he's generally a 28/129.00 shot on the High Street.

Over on the PGA Tour, the second round of the Houston Open has been completed, and the third round is underway. It's an early start, with the leaders teeing off at 17:01 UK Time and I'll be back in the morning to look at that one with a round to go.

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21:00 - March 28, 2025

Play has been suspended at the Houston Open due to poor weather with some players having only played one hole of their second round.

The second round of the Texas Children's Houston Open suspended due to a dangerous weather situation (thunderstorms in the area) at 3:01 p.m. CT.

-- PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) March 28, 2025

The pre-event second favourite, Rory McIlroy, has played seven holes of his second round and he's one-under-par for both the day and the tournament but he's only tied for 68^th and he trails the leader, Scottie Scheffler, by ten strokes.

Playing in the morning, Scheffler, who was a 3/14.00 chance after round one, has fired a bogey-free, eight-under-par 62 in round two to equal the course record and he leads Taylor Pendrith by a stroke, Jason Suber by three, and the rest by at least four.

He ranks first for Strokes Gained: Putting after two rounds and he's trading at odds-on, so he's clearly the man to beat but we've been here before...

Scheffler was matched at 1.9110/11 during the second round last year, although he actually trailed by four at halfway after a poor finish to his round.

Min Woo Lee, who has played only six holes of his second round, trails Scheffler by four, and Ben Griffin is five off the lead with nine holes of round two to play so although it's highly likely,  Scheffler isn't certain to lead at the halfway stage.

Whether Scheffler kicks on from here to take the title or not, he's been very well supported to win the US Masters, shortening up more than a point today to 5.85/1.

With fans ordered to evacuate the site for safety reasons, and with black clouds hovering above, there's a strong chance we don't get any more play today.

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16:50 - March 28, 2025

I'm not a fan of this week's Indian Open venue - the Gary Player Course at the DLF Golf and Country Club - but it's a venue that appears to sort the wheat from the chaff.

The first four editions of the Indian Open all went the way of experienced multiple event winners and last year's victor, Keita Nakajima, appears to have a tremendous future ahead of him.

The 24-year-old was four clear at halfway last year and he's tied at the top this time around. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 16:40.

Keita Nakajima -4 4.131/10
Eugenio Chacarra -4 7.26/1
Matthew Jordan -2 13.012/1
Joost Luiten -2 13.525/2
Andrea Pavan -2 23.022/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat -2 28.027/1
Jens Dantorp -2 28.027/1
Ewen Ferguson -1 23.022/1
Brandon Stone -1 28.027/1
-1 and 32.031/1 bar

Having hit a high of 75.074/1 on Thursday, Nakajima hit a low of 3.412/5 today after he shot an incredible seven-under-par 29 on the front nine.

He cooled off on the back-nine, bogeying the 18^th to slip back alongside Spain's Eugenio Chacarra, but he's the man to beat after today's brilliance.

Average field score: 76.38
Nakajima's score: 66

Gaining -10.36 strokes the field average.#HIO25 pic.twitter.com/vxce9ZwmtZ

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) March 28, 2025

I was happy to play Nakajima modestly at 4.57/2 but the co-leader, Chacarra, can't be dismissed lightly, and the majority of their closest challengers all know how to win.

Chacarra has won on both the LIV Golf circuit and the Asian Tour, and he was fifth at the track as recently as last month in the International Series India on the Asian Tour, although he was beaten by ten by Ollie Schniederjans.

The front two could prove tough nuts to crack but as highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview we've seen all sorts of in-running shenanigans here and Stephen Gallacher won here in 2019 having trailed by seven at halfway and Marcel Siem was five adrift at this stage when winning the 2023 edition.

With that in mind, in addition to backing the defending champion, I've also had a small bet on Ewen Ferguson at 24.023/1.

Trailing by only three, the three-time DP World Tour winner is no bigger than 20/121.00 on the High Street.

The second round of the Houston Open is well underway, and Scottie Scheffler has made a big move.

The world number one currently leads by two after 14 holes and he's already been matched at 2.021/1 but don't forget that he was backed at odds-on during round two last year before finishing tied second to Stephan Jaeger.

I'll be back in the morning with a look at that one at the halfway stage.

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09:40 - March 28, 2025

Round two of the Indian Open is well underway and I'll be back later with a look at the state of play at halfway, but I can't pretend that I'm enjoying the event.

I'll be polite and describe the Gary Player designed course as idiosyncratic but it's far from my favourite venue.

It's making some of the pros look daft but not the defending champ, Keita Nakajima.

Having finished second to Richard Mansell at the Singapore Classic last week, he opened his defence with a two-over-par 74 to sit tied for 67^th and he's been matched in-running at as high as 75.074/1 but he's making a massive move this morning.

At the time of writing, he's a remarkable six-under-par through eight holes and he's now tied for the lead!

Yet again on the PGA Tour, darkness descended before the opening round could be completed on day one.

Taylor Dickson has a birdie putt from 12 feet on the par three seventh to move to -4 and within one of the four players tied at the top on -5 but he's the only player yet to complete his first round that's currently within three strokes of the quartet at the top.

With the US Masters now less than two weeks away, the pre-event second favourite, Rory McIlroy, struggled a bit in the morning yesterday, posting a level-par 70, and the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, posted a bogey-free, three-under-par 67 in the afternoon, but neither man has budged in the US Masters market.

Scheffler is now trading at 3/14.00 to win the Houston Open but I'm happy to leave the event alone for now and have a look again at halfway.

This is the fifth edition at Memorial Park, and we've seen two winners start slowly and two winners up with the pace form the get-go.

Tony Finau won the 2022 edition wire-to-wire and the 2020 winner, Carlos Ortiz, sat second after rounds one, two and three but the 2021 winner, Jason Kokrak, trailed by three in a tie for 18^th and last year's champ, Stephan Jaeger, was tied for 35^th and five off the lead after 18 holes.

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Houston Open Pre-Event Picks:
Jacob Bridgeman @ 50.049/1
Max Greyserman @ 80.079/1

In-Play Pick:
Scottie Scheffler @ 7.413/2

Indian Open Pre-Event Pick:
Marco Penge @ 70.069/1

In-Play Picks:
Keita Nakajima @ 4.57/2
Ewen Ferguson @ 24.023/1
Troy Merritt @ 40.039/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Column here

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