The Punter

The Punter's In-Play Blog: Tight at the top at Pebble Beach

Golfer Sepp Straka
Sepp Straka in action on Friday

There's just one round to go at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am so our man's back with his final in-running thoughts on this week's PGA Tour action here...

  • Straka bounces back to retain the lead

  • Brilliant McIlroy favourite with 18 to play

  • Glover chanced at a big price


09:20 February 2, 2025

After an intriguing third day at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where conditions changed dramatically throughout the day, the halfway leader, Sepp Straka, still holds sway, but only after a quite brilliant finish to his third round.

The Austrian was matched at as high as 27.026/1 after he'd bogeyed three holes in-a-row after the turn in the worst of the weather but as the wind eased, he finished his round with birdies at 14, 15, 17 and 18 to return to the top of the leaderboard. Here's the state of play at Pebble with 18 to play, with prices to back at 9:10.

Sepp Straka -16 4.03/1
Rory McIlroy -15 3.45
Shane Lowry -15 6.411/2
Tom Kim -14 10.09/1
Cam Davis -14 16.015/1
Justin Rose -14 18.5
Lucas Glover -13 40.039/1
Russell Henley -12 55.054/1
Austin Eckroat -11 180.0179/1
Scottie Scheffler -10 48.047/1
-10 and 270.0269/1 bar

With Irish pals, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, accompanying fellow European Ryder Cupper, Sepp Straka, in today's final three-ball, the tournament is set up for a fantastic finale and those three dominate the market.

Last year's renewal was reduced to three rounds due to the weather but 10 of the 11 previous winners had sat first or second with a round to go, suggesting the market is correct but there are certainly reasons to think they won't have it all their own way.

Having trailed by six in a tie for 23rd after two rounds, Wyndham Clark shot 60 in round three last year to ultimately win by a stroke when the fourth round was abandoned and there have been other off-the-pace winners this century.

Tiger Woods won by two, having trailed by five in eighth place in 2000, Davis Love was seven back after 54 holes 12 months later, and Phil Mickelson in 2012, and Vaughn Taylor four years later, both trailed by six with 18 to play.

We've also seen two winners, Steve Lowry in 2008 and Mickelson in 2019, begin the final round trailing by three and the 2002 winner, Matt Gogel, won by three, having trailed by four.

McIlroy was really impressive yesterday. He played some of the hardest holes in the worst of the conditions so his seven-under-par bogey-free 65 was a magnificent round but what will we get today?

As he did on Friday, when he played holes 12 to 17 in four-over-par, he can suffer from concentration lapses, and he's far from reliable in-contention, so although he'll have the benefit of playing alongside Lowry, I'm happy to swerve him at less than 5/23.50.

Having won two weeks ago, there's a chance Straka could run out of steam today and of the front three, Lowry is arguably the best value at odds in excess of 5/16.00 but the dangers are plentiful outside the final group and this is tough to call.

The 2023 winner, Justin Rose, Tom Kim, and the classy Australian, Cam Davis are all huge threats from just two back, but my final wager of the week is on the man that sits alone in seventh - Lucas Glover.

He won his last two PGA Tour titles back-to-back and from the front in August 2023 but his first four titles, including the 2009 US Open, were won from off the pace.

Trailing by only three and no bigger than 28/129.00 on the High Street, Glover looks fractionally big at 40.039/1.


17:50 - February 1, 2025

The halfway leader of the Bahrain Championship, Callum Tarren, was matched at 1.9620/21 when he led by four after seven holes of his third round but after an on-course interview as he played the eighth, his round unravelled.

Callum Tarren in Bahrain.jpg

He played holes eight through 12 in three-over-par before parring his way in for a level par 72 but he still leads the event by a stroke with 18 to play. Here's the 54 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 17:40.

Callum Tarren -13 6.25/1
Francesco Laporta -12 8.88/1
Daniel Brown -12 9.08/1
Pablo Larrazabal -12 9.617/2
Brandon Robinson Thompson -12 12.011/1
Laurie Canter -11 7.87/1
Andrea Pavan -11 17.5
Marcel Schneider -11 21.020/1
Martin Couvra -11 23.022/1
Ivan Cantero -10 21.020/1
Joakim Lagergren -10 48.047/1
Tapio Pulkkanen -10 55.054/1
-9 and 65.064/1 bar

With nine players separated by just two strokes and a dozen by three, it's no surprise to see such a wide-open market with 18 holes to play.

It's a very difficult leaderboard to assess and the weather forecast muddies the already cloudy waters further.

After a relatively calm day today, the wind is predicted to pick up again tomorrow and with the course drying out all the time, it's going to be a tough day.

That should suit Pablo Larrazabal, who battled back nicely today after a poor start. The experienced 41-year-old, who's in search of his 10th victory on the DP World Tour, looks fairly priced at more than 8/19.00 given his experience, the fact he's only one off the lead, and the forecast.

The Spaniard is one of the best wind players on the Tour and he said at halfway that he wanted the wind to blow so he should be better suited to the conditions than most tomorrow.

Links specialist, Daniel Brown, won't mind the weather tomorrow and having been treated on the course for back issues today, could it be a case of beware the injured golfer?

He didn't play anywhere near as nicely as he did on day two, so he'll be glad to still be in the hunt and he too looks a big danger to the leader.

After three rounds he ranks second for Driving Accuracy, sixth for Greens In Regulation but only 44th for Putting Average. Maybe tomorrow's the day a few putts drop? I've added him to the portfolio at 9.28/1.


08:00 - February 1, 2025

In his first start since his facile victory at The American Express, Austria's Sepp Straka will head into the weekend at Pebble Beach leading the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am by three. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 7:50.

Sepp Straka -14 3.55
Russell Henley -11 13.012/1
Cam Davis -11 19.5
Tom Kim -10 18.017/1
Tony Finau -10 22.021/1
Austin Eckroat -10 32.031/1
Andrew Novak -10 34.033/1
Justin Rose -10 36.035/1
Viktor Hovland -9 22.021/1
Lee Hodges -9 60.059/1
Eric Cole -9 70.069/1
Lucas Glover -9 90.089/1
Rory McIlroy -8 19.018/1
Collin Morikawa -8 22.021/1
Justin Thomas -8 29.028/1
Patrick Cantlay -8 30.029/1
Shane Lowry -8 48.047/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -8 85.084/1
Patrick Rodgers -8 170.0169/1
Scottie Scheffler -7 18.5
-7 and 90.089/1 bar

The wind picked up as the afternoon wore on yesterday and several players lost their way.

Rory McIlroy was matched at just 4.47/2 to win the event as he completed his front nine at Pebble Beach in four-under-par but bogeys at 12, 13, 16 and 17 saw him drift out of the mix and he still trails by six despite eagling the par five 18th.

Scottie Scheffler looked like he was going to mount a challenge when he birdied three holes in-a-row form the sixth at Pebble but that was as good as it got for the world number one who was matched at a low of 4.57/2.

Having got to eight-under-par, he finished on -7 after a bogey at 12 and a par at 18 after he'd driven on to the onto the beach off the tee!

Straka is clearly the man to beat, and he'll be feeling confident after his victory a fortnight ago, but he looks short enough at around 5/23.50 given today's weather forecast.

The wind is predicted to blow quite hard and it's the sort of day that produces volatile scoring.

I've listed the top 13 and ties and the first 20 in the market above but it's quite possible the winner isn't there.

The leaderboard may well look significantly different after 54 holes and I wouldn't put anyone off backing a longshot from off the pace.

The one I like at a ridiculous price is Billy Horschel, who sits tied for 20th on -7 after a brilliant 65 around Pebble in round two.

Horschel is a huge price at in excess of 300.0299/1 and I've also had a small wager on Austin Eckroat at 34.033/1.

The 26-year-old, who won twice on the PGA Tour last year, bogeyed the ninth hole at Pebble yesterday (his 18th of the day) but he coped well in the wind and he looks fractionally big.


16:20 - January 31, 2025

It was a very different day for Brandon Robinson Thompson at the Bahrain Championship today.

Having been matched at just 3/14.00 to take the title after his brilliant 61 on day one, the 32-year-old posted a disappointing three-over-par 75 today and having led by three after round one, he now trails by five in a tie for sixth. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 16:10.

Callum Tarren -13 4.67/2
Daniel Brown -11 8.07/1
Andrea Pavan -11 8.27/1
Pablo Larrazabal -10 12.011/1
Tapio Pulkkanen -9 34.033/1
Jorge Campillo -8 22.021/1
Francesco Laporta -8 24.023/1
Joakim Lagergren -8 46.045/1
Jeong weon Ko -8 46.045/1
Brandon Robinson Thompson -8 50.049/1
Laurie Canter -7 16.015/1
Ivan Cantero -7 36.035/1
-7 and 80.079/1 bar

The defending champ, Dylan Frittelli, was tied for the lead at this stage 12 months ago and Paul Casey was just one off the lead at the midway point when he won here back in 2011, suggesting we should be concentrating on the very top of the leaderboard, but I'm not entirely convinced.

We've seen low scores on both day one and day two and that's with the wind up. Sunday is predicted to be breezy again, but the forecast predicts a more benign day tomorrow and without the pressure of being in-contention, it's possible that we see one or two players make up a lot of headway.

The leader, Callum Tarren, is the obvious favourite but over the last ten years, two-stroke 36-hole leaders have only 24% strike rate on the DP World Tour and pressure may get to the 34-year-old Englishman given what's on the line.

Daniel Brown, who was in-contention at halfway last week when a Find Me a 100 Winner pick, is playing some very nice golf. At the halfway stage, he ranks second for Driving Accuracy and sixth for Greens In Regulation but only 44th for Putting Average so if he can hole a few more putts over the weekend, he could be the one.

He was disappointing in round three last week, reacting poorly to what was going on around him.

His playing partner, and the eventual winner, Alejandro Del Rey, caught more than the odd good break and that seemed to get under Brown's skin.

He may well learn from that experience, remain patient, and kick on again tomorrow, and he's clearly someone you can back blind at a huge price. He went off at around 200.0199/1 again this week, despite playing nicely last week.

Andrea Pavan, who sits alongside Brown, and Pablo Larrazabal, who made an ace at the par three second hole today, have done brilliantly to get to within two and three of the lead given they were drawn on the wrong side of the draw.

They kicked off the event yesterday afternoon and the PM-AM side of the draw have averaged two and half strokes more than the other side of the draw.

I backed Pablo yesterday in-running and he's one to keep an eye on. If he can remain in touch tomorrow when the wind lays down, he should be a force to be reckoned with when it picks up again on Sunday.

Fellow Spaniards, Jorge Campillo and Ivan Cantero are likely candidates to sneak into the frame tomorrow but I'm going to sit on my hands for now.

Over on the PGA Tour, the second round of the AT&T Pebble Beach is about to kick off and I'll be back tomorrow with a detailed look at that one at the halfway stage.

Day one was certainly entertaining with both Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry making aces and the day ended with pre-event 85.084/1 chance, Russell Henley, leading by a stroke on -8, despite kicking off the event at Spyglass Hill.

Spyglass averaged 69.775 (2.225 under-par) but Pebble averaged only 68.175 (3.825 under-par).

With six men tied for second and a further seven within two of Henley, it's a very tight leaderboard and I'm happy to see what today brings.


15:10 - January 30, 2025

Having made eagle threes at the two par fives and birdies at three of the five par fours on the front nine, pre-event 350.0349/1 chance, Brandon Robinson Thompson, was seven-under-par at the turn before he missed a tiny putt for another birdie at 10 at the Bahrain Championship this morning.

He put that miss behind him, parred the 11th, birdied four holes in-a-row from the 12th and came agonisingly close to making another at the difficult par three 16th.

Needing birdies at the last two holes to record only the second round in the 50s on the DP World Tour, he holed this monster at the 17th and 59 was very much on!

Although the hole had been lengthened since last year's edition, the pin placement on 18 was generous today and provided he could find the fairway, a birdie three was perfectly possible.

Unfortunately, BRT didn't find the fairway and after his second shot from sand overshot the green, he ended up holing a tricky putt for a bogey five.

It was a scruffy and disappointing finish but his 11-under-par 61 is still the new course record and he leads Callum Tarren by three and the rest by five.

As highlighted in the preview, up with the pace has been the place to be in the previous events staged here but I'm far from convinced he's a great price now at less than 4/15.00.

I haven't been able to ascertain the AM-PM split yet but Pablo Larrazabal, who recorded one of the 31 birdies made at the 18th today to record a six-under-par 66, is the only player that teed it up in the afternoon that's inside the top-nine places and within six strokes of BRT after day one so kicking off the event early today was clearly advantageous.

Whether the draw bias evens itself out is debatable, but it will be interesting to see how Pablo and Co fare.

Having sat second after a 66 in round one of the Volvo Golf Champions event here back in 2011, Larrazabal was a selection before the off 12 months ago at 70.069/1 but he never got going.

He signed the tournament off with a 68 to climb from 62nd to 29th but that was as good as it got.

The Spaniard revealed today that he had a hand in the positioning of the new tee on 18 and he clearly likes the track, so I was happy to get him onside in-running this morning.

He's been gambled down to 30.029/1 since signing for the 66 but that still looks reasonable.

I'll be back tomorrow after the first round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am which kicks off 16:35 UK time.


AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Pre-Event Pick:
Scottie Scheffler @ 6.25/1

In-Play Picks:
Austin Eckroat @ 34.033/1
Billy Horschel @ 330.0329/1
Lucas Glover @ 40.039/1

Bahrain Championship Pre-Event Pick:
Sam Bairstow @ 65.064/1

In-Play Pick:
Pablo Larrazabal @ 60.059/1
Daniel Brown @ 9.28/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Picks:
David Ravetto @ 130.0129/1 (BC)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat @ 130.0129/1 (BC)
Nick Taylor @ 100.099/1 (AT&T)
Nico Echavarria @ 190.0189/1 (AT&T)


*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter


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