The Punter's In-Play Blog: Matsuyama and Morikawa clear at Kapalua

• Matsuyama odds-on with 18 to play

• Morikawa seeks redemption for 2023 collapse

• Im backed at a big price

11:00 - January 5, 2025

Conditions have been relatively kind all week on Maui, but it's been getting progressively easier as the week has progressed and having averaged 70.72 on Thursday and 68.09 on Friday, the par 73 Plantation Course averaged just 67.5 in almost flat calm conditions in round three of The Sentry yesterday.

The opening hole was the only one to average over par for the day and as many as 12 players recorded a round of eight-under-par or better!

The two leaders at the halfway stage, Hideki Matsuyama and Collin Morikawa, as well as Korea's Sungjae Im, all shot 11-under-par 62s to tie the course record and Matsuyama has set the Plantation Course record for 54 holes at 27-under 192.

Morikawa started the better of the two and he was matched at a low of 2.01/1 when he eagled the par five fifth to lead by one, but Matsuyama drew back alongside him with a birdie at the very next hole and he was in front again after a birdie at the 10^th.

A guy can dream pic.twitter.com/IAzb1zDMKH

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 5, 2025

Clearly inspiring each other to ridiculous levels of play, even when considering how easily the course was playing, the pair ended the third round as they'd began it, with the Japanese leading by a stroke. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:50.

Hideki Matsuyama -27 1.855/6
Collin Morikawa -26 2.3811/8
Thomas Detry -22 60.059/1
Sungjae Im -21 65.064/1
Harry Hall -20 400.0399/1
-19 and 620.0619/1 bar

Matsuyama has firmed up at the head of the market since the end of round three and I can see why.

It very much looks like a two-man race and he's the most reliable of the front two in-contention. In fact, he's very reliable.

Worldwide, Matsuyama has held a clear 54-hole lead ten times previously and since finishing second at the Japan PGA Championship almost 12 years ago, he's converted every time.

He's led by a solitary stroke twice previously and he went on to win by three and five strokes.

In contrast, Morikawa is seeking to win at a venue he already should have won at given he led this event two years ago by six strokes with a round to go!

Not leading may help Morikawa but he's won just once in the last four years, from off the pace at the ZOZO Championship in 2023, and on the last occasion he trailed by a solitary stroke with a round to go, at the US Masters in April last year, he shot 74 in round four to lose by seven.

With very little wind predicted again today, it's very difficult to imagine both the leaders to struggling to enough of an extent to open the door for others, but I have had a tiny bet on Im at 70.069/1.

The Korean loves the venue and he shot 63 in round four to climb into fifth place 12 months ago.

11:00 - January 4, 2025

Pre-event 34.033/1 chance, Hideki Matsuyama, was matched at as low as 2.01/1 as he played the back nine of his second round at The Sentry yesterday when he threatened to pull clear of the rest.

After three straight pars to begin his second round, the Japanese played his next ten holes in seven-under-par, and he was odds-on to make it eight-under through 11 when he gave himself about three feet for birdie at the 14^th.

A shot clear of Corey Connors in the clubhouse and three clear of everyone else, with gettable holes to come and a great chance to extend his lead, it was understandable to see him trade so short, but he missed his birdie putt at 14 and the was the first of three missed birdie opportunities that he really should have converted.

He made a nice birdie at 17 from six feet after a brilliant approach but he missed a very makable birdie putt at 16 and two more very short birdie putts at 15 and 18.

Matsuyama still looked like heading into the weekend with a two-stroke lead but course specialist, Collin Morikawa, finished his second round in style and it's those two that now dominate the market.

Five birdies in his last six holes and just one back

Collin Morikawa is no stranger to Kapalua, finishing inside the top 10 in every start he has made @TheSentry. pic.twitter.com/VqU7E8vHf0

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 4, 2025

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:50.

Hideki Matsuyama -16 3.711/4
Collin Morikawa -15 4.3100/30
Corey Conners -14 11.010/1
Maverick McNealy -14 13.5
Thomas Detry -14 22.021/1
Tom Hoge -14 25.024/1
Wyndham Clark -13 18.5
Cameron Young -13 23.022/1
Keegan Bradley -13 23.022/1
Harry Hall -13 34.033/1
Sepp Straka -12 50.049/1
-11 and 90.089/1 bar

With a new putter in the bag, Matsuyama's finish to round two was a bit of a worry and it will be interesting to see how he putts in round three.

He looked imperious for the first two thirds of the round yesterday but the way he putted at the end was a bit disconcerting and he looks a bit vulnerable in front given this is effectively a putting competition and that he ranks only 14^th for Strokes Gained: Putting at the halfway stage.

With the forecast predicting light winds, we can expect low scoring over the weekend so up with the pace is definitely the place to be.

Last year's winner, Chris Kirk, sat tied fifth and just two off the lead at this stage and although the 2023 winner, Jon Rahm, sat sixth and five off the lead at halfway, the two winners before him, Cameron Smith and Harris English, were both leading at halfway and we have to go all the way back to 2002 to find the only course winner (Sergio Garcia) not to be inside the top-ten at halfway.

Just like the 2005 winner, Geoff Ogilvy, who sat ninth at halfway, Sergio trailed by seven but every other Sentry winner since the tournament switched to the Plantation Course back in 1999 has been inside the top six places and within five strokes of the lead at halfway.

Of the leading pack, Conners is putting the best so far (ranks second for SG:P) but he's far from prolific and I'm going to sit on my hands for now.

Matsuyama's finish to round two was a bit concerning but his nearest challenger, Morikawa, is far from straightforward in-contention nowadays and it's not the strongest leaderboard after that.

Whether I'd be in a rush to back him now at less than 3/14.00 is debatable but I'm happy to leave the event alone for now and see what today brings.

13:10 - January 3, 2025

Playing in the slightly easier morning conditions at Kapalua, and in the very first three-ball, pre-event 160.0159/1 chance, Tom Hoge, who was matched at as high as 240.0239/1 when the market first opened on Monday, ended the first day in front at The Sentry yesterday following a nine-under-par 64 around the Plantation Course.

With the wind picking up, the afternoon starters averaged 0.57 of a stroke higher than the morning wave and Hideki Matsuyama, who shot -8, Corey Connors (-7), and Tony Finau (-6) are the only late starters inside the top nine places. Thery are the only nine players within three of Hoge's lead and history suggests they're the ones we should be concentrating on.

Sergio Garcia in 2002, Stuart Appleby in 2005, and Xander Schauffele six years ago, all overcame slow starts but the other 23 winners at this venue have been no more than three strokes off the lead after the first round. And the vast majority of those have been within just two of the lead...

Last year's winner, Chris Kirk, trailed by three in a tie for 12^th but the three victors before him were all in front after round one and since Appleby won from off the pace in 2005, as many as 16 of the 19 Sentry winners have been inside the top five places and within two of the lead after round one.

Like Kirk 12 months ago, Geoff Ogilvy was only three off the lead after round one when he won in 2010 so although we've seen a couple of clear leaders mess up in round four, Kapalua is a very hard place to make up ground and we should be concentrating on the top of the leaderboard.

There's been money for the leader since the close of play and he now trades at a shade under 12/113.00.

Hoge will be playing on a high having become a father for the first time in early December but the one I like is the new favourite, Matsuyama, who is tied for second alongside Will Zalatoris.

The Japanese hasn't figured here recently, finishing 41^st, 13^th, 21^st and 58^th in his last four appearances but that's quite odd given he finished third, second and fourth on the first three occasions he played the Plantation Course.

Yesterday's 64 is his best start at the venue, and I was happy to get him onside at 6.611/2 at the close of play.

With a new putter in play, Matsuyama ranked ninth for Strokes Gained: Putting in round one and if he can maintain that touch on the greens, he'll be tough to beat.

Pre-Event Pick:
Sam Burns @ 32.031/1

In-Play Picks:
Hideki Matsuyama @ 6.611/2
Sungjae Im @ 70.069/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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