The Punter's In-Play Blog: Is it game over at East Lake?

• Hovland six clear through 54 holes

• Schauffele the man to chase down Norwegian

• Wallace and Valimaki tied in Prague

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09:50 - August 27, 2023

With the likes of 36-hole col-leader, Collin Morikawa, FedEx Cup leader, Scottie Scheffler, and world number three, Jon Rahm, all going in the wrong direction on Moving Day, Viktor Hovland's four-under-par 66 has seen him move six strokes clear at the Tour Championship. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:30.

Viktor Hovland -20 1.132/15
Xander Schauffele -14 18.017/1
Collin Morikawa -13 42.041/1
Keegan Bradley -13 85.084/1
Scottie Scheffler -11 120.0119/1
Jon Rahm -11 130.0129/1
Wyndham Clark -11 230.0229/1
-9 and 800.0799/1 bar

Nobody has ever lost a lead of seven or more on the PGA Tour and in the last 50 years only seven players have failed to convert a six-stroke lead but incredibly, the last two were both beaten.

Scottie Scheffler finished tied for second in this event 12 months ago , having led by six, and Collin Morikawa was caught and passed by Jon Rahm at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawaii in January. Could lightening strike for a third time?

It's hard to see Hovland messing up given he leads the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Driving Accuracy, Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green and Average Proximity to the Hole and he's made just two bogeys all week but today's another day.

I certainly don't want to go backing Hovland at long odds-on and I've had a very small bet on the man in second, Xander Schauffele, whose record at East Lake is stunning.

No bigger than 12/113.00 on the High Street, the 18.017/1 available on the exchange is too big.

The Sportsbook have a Betting W/O Viktor Hovland Market here and Schauffele is the 13/10 favourite.

Over at the Czech Masters, my in-play pick, Matt Wallace, is tied for the lead with the first-round leader, Sami Valimaki, after both men shot five-under-par 67s around the Albatross Course. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:40.

Matt Wallace -16 3.711/4
Sami Valimaki -16 4.84/1
Nicolai Hojgaard -15 4.216/5
Wil Besseling -14 23.022/1
Ryo Hisatsune -13 29.028/1
Nick Bachem -13 30.029/1
Fabrizio Zanotti -13 36.035/1
Max Schmitt -13 38.037/1
Todd Clements -13 50.049/1
Antoine Rozner -12 42.041/1
Thorbjorn Olesen -12 46.045/1
-12 and 60.059/1 bar

I'm obviously pleased to have Wallace leading with a round to go and pre-event fancy, Thorbjorn Olesen, might be in with a squeak after yesterday's bogey-free seven-under-par 65, but this is a tough tournament to call.

The first seven tournament winners were all inside the top-two places and within two of the lead after three rounds, suggesting Olesen, who trails by four in a tie for 10th, is too far back but last year's winner, Max Kieffer, was trailing by four with a round to go.

After rain caused delays, last year's event was reduced to 54 holes and Kieffer shot 66 in round three to win by a stroke but it's worth noting that the clear leader after round two, Gavin Green, who had led by three, helped the German's cause with a disappointing 71 on pay day.

All things considered, given how low the scoring is here, it's highly likely that one of the front three will go low enough today to get the job done and I'm happy to stick with what I have.

I'm tempted to play Nicolai Hojgaard at in excess of 3/14.00 but I'm still concerned that the added pressure of Ryder Cup qualification could complicate matters so I'm going to leave things as they are.

08:45 - August 26, 2023

A pair of matching six-under-par 64s have seen Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa extended their lead at the halfway stage of the Tour Championship but the world number one is hot on their heels after a better day with the flatstick. Here's the latest standings with prices to back at 08:30.

Viktor Hovland -16 3.211/5
Collin Morikawa -16 3.814/5
Scottie Scheffler -14 4.84/1
Keegan Bradley -13 30.029/1
Jon Rahm -12 14.527/2
Xander Schauffele -12 16.015/1
Rory McIlroy -10 32.031/1
-9 and 160.0159/1 bar

This now appears to concern seven players and I wouldn't rule any of them out.

The front two have a handy two stroke advantage but all their pursuers have reasonably strong claims heading into the weekend.

Scottie Scheffler's putting appeared much improved yesterday, Keegan Bradley played poorly at times but scrambled brilliantly yesterday, and he could well improve today, and my in-play pick, Jon Rahm, played better than he did on Thursday. The Spaniard was matched at just 5.24/1 in-running before he missed a short birdie putt at the 12th, and he dropped shots at seven and 17 but he still posted a five-under-par 65 to keep him in the hunt.

Course specialist, Xander Schauffele, has never shot an over-par round at East Lake, and 23 of his 26 rounds here have been in the 60s, and back injury or no back injury, you can never rule out the three-time FedEx Cup winner and defending champ, Rory McIlroy. He was matched at a high of 110.0109/1 at halfway last year when trailing by nine but he clawed his way back with rounds of 63 and 66 to win by one after and some help from Scheffler.

The fact that someone has won two FedEx Cup Playoff events in eight of the previous ten years, and on a staggering 11 occasions in total, is a big plus for Hovland fans but I was reluctant to play him at 4/15.00 yesterday so I'm happy to continue swerving him at around 9/43.25 this morning.

Bradley plays Donald Ross designs well and he's a big price at 30.029/1. He was poor off the tee yesterday, but he rescued his round nicely by birdying three of his last five holes. A bit of a dip after Thursday's low round was understandable and he could very easily improve today but after much deliberation, I'm going to sit on my hands for now and cheer on yesterday's pick, Rahm, who played very nicely yesterday and could very easily have shot a couple of strokes better.

Over on the DP World Tour, the 36-hole leaderboard at the Czech Masters is littered with players in with a shout of making Luke Doanld's European Ryder Cup team. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 8:35.

Alexander Bjork -13 4.131/10
Nicolai Hojgaard -12 4.57/2
Matt Wallace -11 10.09/1
Sami Valimaki -11 16.015/1
Ludvig Aberg -10 8.07/1
Ryo Hisatsune -10 25.024/1
Todd Clements -10 55.054/1
Pedro Figueiredo -10 85.084/1
-9 and 23.022/1 bar

It would be ridiculous to say you can't win from off the pace here given the surprise 2016 winner, Paul Peterson, trailed by eight at halfway but he's very much the exception.

Last year's renewal was reduced to 54-holes due to wet weather, but the other six tournament winners were all inside the top-five places at halfway - although the 2017 winner, Haydn Porteous, trailed by as many as five strokes in fourth place.

With that in mind, and given the calibre of the leading pack, it might not be too wise to scan far down the leaderboard.

The market is dominated by the front two - Alexander Bjork and Nicolai Hojgaard - who both have designs on making Donald's line-up in Rome in September.

Bjork has certainly impressed over the first two days but he's far from dependable in-contention and I'm quite surprised that the market doesn't favour the more ruthless closer in second.

Hojgaard is definitely the man to beat at this stage and he's a fair price at in excess of 3/14.00 but with the added pressure of Ryder Cup qualification a constant factor, I'm happy to swerve him in favour of the man who's been here before -Matt Wallace.

The Englishman birdied seven of his last eight holes to win the Made In Denmark back in 2018 when in-contention for a Ryder Cup place, having already won the Indian Open and the BMW International Open that year, but it wasn't enough. Thomas Bjorn went for experience over form, but Wallace can use that memory as inspiration this weekend.

Wallace hasn't actually won on the DP World Tour since that victory in Denmark, but he won the Corales Puntacana on the PGA Tour in March so he's no back number.

14:15 - August 25, 2023

I'm no fan of the handicap system adopted in 2019 at the FedEx Cup decider - the Tour Championship - and the moan meter was turned up to ten after Scottie Scheffler had played just six holes of his opening round.

Having started the tournament with a two-stroke lead, Scheffler was matched at just 1.454/9 when he hit his second shot on the par five sixth to six feet. An eagle three would have seen him stretch his advantage to six shots but anyone that's been watching the world number one over the last few months knows, a six-footer is no certainty for Scottie.

Scheffler missed the eagle, but he still led by five once he'd tapped in the birdie putt and we looked set for a very boring tournament. Everything changed on the back-nine though and when he triple-bogeyed the par three 15th, it was game on. Here's the state of play after round one with prices to back at 14:00.

Viktor Hovland -10 5.04/1
Collin Morikawa -10 6.25/1
Keegan Bradley -10 18.535/2
Scottie Scheffler -9 4.77/2
Russell Henley -8 22.021/1
Adam Schenk -8 65.064/1
Rory McIlroy -7 12.523/2
Jon Rahm -7 15.529/2
Matt Fitzpatrick -7 34.033/1
Xander Schauffele -6 26.025/1
-6 and 42.041/1 bar

Whatever happens from here on in, Collin Morikawa and Keegan Bradley have at least demonstrated that it is going to be possible to win from way off the pace from the start. Something that hasn't really seemed likely over the last four years.

Morikawa began the event trailing Scheffler by nine and trading at around 220.0219/1 and trailing by seven, Bradley was a 400.0399/1 chance before the off.

Scheffler still heads the market and he's highly unlikely to flitter away shots again this week, like he did yesterday, but he's impossible to fancy while he's putting so woefully. He ranked 28 of 30 for Putting Average yesterday and dead last for Strokes Gained Putting.

Given he was coming into the event off a victory last week, it wasn't a big surprise to see Viktor Hovland start fairly slowly yesterday - parring his first nine holes.

Winning back-to-back is never easy but his two-under, bogey-free back-nine has set him up nicely for the rest of the week and if forced to pick the winner now, he'd be my man. I'm not in any rush to side with him at 4/15.00 though.

Morikawa's golf was almost immaculate yesterday and he's the man to beat if he can continue to find fairways and greens but it's never easy to back up a super low round and I'm happy to swerve him too.

Rory McIlroy didn't start the event brilliantly bu that's hardly surprising given he's been suffering with back spasms since Tuesday and for that reason alone he's one to avoid.

Russell Henley and Adam Schenk played very nicely yesterday but it's hard to envisage either man winning an event of this magnitude. Henley gets in his own way in run of the mill PGA Tour events and Schenk is yet to win on Tour.

I was sorely tempted to leave the event alone for now and see where we stand at halfway but I'm happy to take a very small chance on Jon Rahm.

The Spaniard didn't impress yesterday but he's more than capable of sparking to life today and he's fairly priced at 15.529/2 given he only trails by three.

Play was suspended at 13:00 UK time at the Czech Masters due to the threat of lightening with the first-round leader, Sami Valimaki, having played just one hole.

Play has just resumed so, fingers crossed, we may well get to the halfway stage today. The original communication suggested we'd be on stop for in excess of a couple of hours but they're back out there after an hour and 11 minutes!

12:40 - August 24, 2023

This week's FedEx Cup decider - the Tour Championship - is yet to start and the two frontrunners - Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland - don't begin their opening rounds until 19:00 UK time but we're well underway on the DP World Tour where Finland's Sami Valimaki has set the early pace at the Czech Masters with a nine-under-par 63 this morning.

The pre-event 140.0139/1 shot is an odds-on chance to end the day in front but given most of the big names have only just kicked off their opening rounds, and given the conditions are perfect and the course is very scorable, it's not inconceivable that someone catches him.

The huge-hitting Swedish sensation, Ludvig Aberg, has eagled the first but he failed to birdie the second, despite almost driving the green, and it's going to be fascinating to see how he and his playing partner, the equally big-hitting Dane, Nicolai Hojgaard, who's birdied the first two holes, fare playing together this afternoon.

It's a bit too early to get involved but it's perhaps worth noting that the inaugural winner, Jamie Donaldson, is the only first round leader to win and that we've seen winners trailing by three, four and six strokes after round one.

Tour Championship Pre-Event Selection:
Lucas Glover @ 70.069/1

In-Play Picks:
Jon Rahm @ 15.529/2
Xander Schauffele @ 18.017/1

Czech Masters Pre-event Selections:
Thorbjorn Olesen @ 65.064/1
Thriston Lawrence @ 85.084/1

In-Play Pick:
Matt Wallace @ 10.09/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
2u Matti Schmid @ 100.099/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
2u Tapio Pulkkanen 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
1u Adri Arnaus 230.0229/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

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