Dunlap all set to cause a huge shock
Burns and Thomas poised to pounce
Si Woo Kim chanced at a big price
14:40 - January 21, 2024
Rory McIlroy has just defended his Dubai Desert Classic title, having been matched in-running at 50.049/1, and I'll be back with the De-brief tomorrow to look at his fourth victory at the Emirates in detail but for now I'm concentrating on The American Express, where quite a story is developing.
Pre-event 1000.0999/1 shot, Nick Dunlop, a 20-year-old amateur, shot 60 around La Quinta in round three yesterday to hit the front but with Ryder Cup stars, Sam Burns and Justin Thomas, in his slipstream, we're all set for a fascinating final round. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 14:30.
Nick Dunlap -27 2.588/5
Sam Burns -24 3.4549/20
Justin Thomas -23 5.49/2
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -21 48.047/1
Xander Schauffele -20 32.031/1
JT Poston -20 48.047/1
Eric Cole -20 50.049/1
Adam Hadwin -20 55.054/1
Si Woo Kim -20 60.059/1
Patrick Cantlay -19 65.064/1
-19 and 280.0279/1 bar
As many as three of the last four winners have been leading or tied for the lead with a round to go at this event and since the tournament was reduced from five rounds to four in 2012, seven of the 12 winners were either leading on their on or tied at the top.
Mark Wilson converted a three-stroke lead in 2012 and Patrick Read held on to win two years later, despite an underwhelming final round 71 having led by seven but we have seen clear leaders slip up.
In the 12 years since the tournament went from five to four rounds, we've seen seven players hold a clear advantage after three rounds and only three of them went on to collect the trophy.
None of the seven shot anything better than a three-under-par 69 and that wasn't enough to see Phil Mickelson hold on five years ago, even though he'd led by two.
Austin Cook misfired in 2018, shooting 75 to slip to 14th, having led by one but the unluckiest loser was arguably Scott Stallings who lost by a stroke after a two-under par 70 in round four, having led by five!
Dunlap has been superb so far and it's an incredible story but he's almost certain to feel the nerves more now that he's in front and despite his sizable advantage, he looks more vulnerable than his price suggests.
Having backed Sam Burns on Friday night, I'm happy to have him onside, and he's the one I like to reel in the leader but if Dunlap does misfire, several quality players, with plenty of event form, will be back in the argument.
The likes of Adam Hadwin, JT Poston, Xander Schauffele all command plenty of respect but the one I like at a juicy price is the 2021 winner, Si Woo Kim.
The last two winners, Hudson Swafford and Jon Rahm, were both winning the event for a second time and Kim looks value to follow them in at 60.059/1.
19:30 - January 20, 2024
Having hit a high of 50.049/1 to defend his Dubai Desert Classic title, and having began the third round trailing the halfway leader, Cameron Young, by as many as ten strokes, after this brilliant eagle at the 18th to post a fabulous nine-under-par 63, Rory McIlroy now trails by just two.
Young had looked in big trouble on the front-nine, double-bogeying the seventh, before dropping another at eight but he fought back valiantly on the back-nine with birdies at 11, 13 and 17 and according to the market, he's still the man to beat. Here's the 54 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 19:20.
Cameron Young -14 2.546/4
Rory McIlroy -12 2.6613/8
Adrian Meronk -12 5.79/2
Rasmus Hojgaard -9 44.043/1
Haotong Li -9 70.069/1
Joaquin Niemann -8 95.094/1
Tommy Fleetwood -7 160.0159/1
Thorbjorn Olesen -7 270.0269/1
Alex Fitzpatrick -7 650.0649/1
-6 and 620.0619/1 bar
The market is correct to make Young the favourite if the stats are to be believed but I'm not convinced.
Only two of the last 11 54-hole leaders have been beaten (Ashun Wu in 2020 and Justin Harding 2022) and in 22 of the 34 editions staged to date, the third round leader has gone on to win but after his rally from off the pace today, Rory is going to be a tough opponent with his wealth of course experience.
The world number two is a huge danger to the leader and Adrian Meronk certainly can't be ruled out either.
I'm happy to leave the front two alone and cheer on Meronk, who I backed at halfway, but I can't resist a small bet on last week's winner, Tommy Fleetwood, at a juicy price.
Fleetwood has a history of coming with a late rattle on a Sunday.
He won both his Nedbank Challenge titles from off the pace (trailing by five and six strokes), he finished runner-up at the 2018 US Open (beaten by a stroke) having sat tied for 23rd and six back after three rounds, and he was beaten in a playoff at the Shenzhen International in 2017 having trailed by eight after 54 holes!
If someone is going to defy the stats and win from some way back, it's likely to be Tommy.
07:50 - January 20, 2024
Given the easiest two courses this week have been La Quinta and the Nicklaus Stadium Course (see below tweet), it's hardly surprising to see that The American Express leaderboard is dominated by players yet to play the Pete Dye Stadium Course.
The first three on the leaderboard will all play there today and while it's the toughest of the three tracks, playing it for two days in-a-row, may prove to be beneficial at the end of the week. The fourth and final round on Sunday will be played out around the Pete Dye Stadium Course.
Here's the 36-hole leaderboard, together with courses to be played today and prices to back at 07:40.
Sam Burns -17 5.24/1 (SC)
Michael Kim -16 17.016/1 (SC)
KH Lee -15 24.023/1 (SC)
Patrick Cantlay -14 9.08/1 (SC)
Eric Cole -14 11.010/1 (NC)
Adam Hadwin -14 14.527/2 (LQ)
Nick Dunlap -14 21.020/1 (LQ)
Si Woo Kim -14 26.025/1 (SC)
Alex Noren -14 34.033/1 (SC)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -14 50.049/1 (SC)
Min Woo Lee -13 16.531/2 (LQ)
-13 and 26.025/1 bar
Sam Burns was the big mover yesterday, thanks to an 11-under-par 61 around the Nicklaus Course, and the five-time PGA Tour winner is the man to beat if the in-running stats can be believed.
Looking back over the last 12 years, since the tournament was reduced from five rounds to four, we've seen two winners come with a late rattle over the weekend but up with the pace is usually the place to be.
Having sat second after round one, 1000.0999/1 chance, Adam Long, trailed by six in a tie for 11th before winning in 2019 and the 2022 winner, Hudson Swafford, who also took the title in 2017, having led at halfway, was five adrift in a tie for 24th, but the other ten victors were all within three strokes of the lead at this stage. And nine of the ten sat first or second.
That's a great omen for Burns and the 2018 John Deere Classic winner, Michael Kim, and I was happy to get them both onside last night at 5.49/2 and 17.533/2 respectively.
Kim winning again having lost his game completely would be a great story, but the leader is going to be tough to beat.
Burns won the WGC Match Play at the Pete Dye-designed Austin Country Club last year, beating the current Dubai Desert Classic leader, Cameron Young, in the final, and he's contended at the Shriners Childrens Hospital Open previously, which is another low scoring event in the desert.
He came into the event following an under-the-radar 33rd at The Sentry but with tournament form figures reading 18-6-MC-11, it's no surprise to see him in-the-mix.
My sole selection before the off, JT Poston, was disappointing after a fast start to round two saw him matched at a low of 11.521/2 but he's not out of it given he trails by only five and that he plays the Nicklaus Course today and my Find me a 100 Winner fancy, KH Lee, sits alone in third and just two off the lead.
I'm hopeful they can kick on today but in addition to Burns and Kim, I've also backed two others in-the-mix.
Event specialist, Adam Hadwin, who will be playing the easiest of the three courses today - La Quinta - after shooting an impressive bogey-free seven-under-par 65 around the Stadium Course yesterday, could easily be there or thereabouts at the finish and I couldn't resist a small play on another player I mentioned yesterday - Christiaan Bezuidenhout.
The South African plays the Stadium Course today but he looks over-priced at 50.049/1 given he trails by just three.
I'll be back again this afternoon to look at the Dubai Desert Classic after round three and again tomorrow morning after the third round in California.
17:40 - January 19, 2024
As expected, none of the afternoon starters on day two of the Dubai Desert Classic could get to the early starter, Cameron Young, so here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 17:30.
Cameron Young -13 2.186/5
Adrina Meronk -10 5.49/2
Andy Sullivan -10 16.531/2
Nicolai Hojgaard -7 16.015/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -7 18.535/2
Richie Ramsay -7 130.0129/1
-6 and 36.035/1 bar
Rory trailed by two at this stage last year before winning his third Dubai Desert Classic title and four of the previous five winners had trailed by at least three strokes at halfway, although only one of them, Lucas Herbert in 2020, was outside the top-six places after 36 holes. The Australian trailed by four in a tie for 11th.
Robert-Jan Derksen sat tied for 20th and five adrift at halfway before winning 21 years ago and Alvaro Quiros sat 27th and eight back in 2011 before crafting a brilliant 68 in very windy conditions in round three but every other winner this century has been within four of the lead and inside the top-seven suggesting the winner is highly likely to be listed above.
The obvious place to start is with Young and at just a shade of odds-against, I'm happy to look elsewhere.
As talented as he is, Young is yet to win on the PGA Tour, and he's been quite disappointing in-contention since he graduated from the Korn Ferry Tour.
Young won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour, and on both occasions, in 2021, he was leading at halfway, but he was two clear at the John Deere Classic at halfway in July last year and he shot 71-68 on the weekend to finish sixth, beaten by five.
He may well kick on here and get the job done and it's surely only a matter of time before he wins on a bigger stage but until he does, I'm happy to look elsewhere.
Having backed Adrian Meronk before the off last week, it's obviously irritating to see him bang in-contention here but I'm not going to cut my nose off to spite my face.
The amiable Pole is far and away the most likely man to benefit should the leader stumble over the weekend and odds of around 9/25.50 look more than fair.
With just one win in the last eight years, it's hard to envisage Andy Sullivan sustaining a challenge all weekend and given they're three behind Meronk and six behind Young, the Hojgaard twins have plenty to do.
If forced to choose between the two I'd side with Nicolai but all things considered, Meronk looks the play at halfway.
09:55 - January 19, 2024
Cameron Young was matched at a low of just of just 1.824/5 this morning before he dropped a shot at the par four ninth - his final hole of round two - at the Dubai Desert Classic.
His eight-under-par 64 was three strokes better than anyone could muster yesterday and it's two strokes better than anyone else has managed so far today.
I'll be back at the close of play with a more detailed look at the halfway stage but given nobody on the course at present is within five of the leader, it's probably safe to assume the American will still be in front.
Over on the PGA Tour, the first round of The American Express has been played and as always, we have to bear in mind how differently the three separate courses play.
Zach Johnson and Alex Noren are tied for the lead after both men shot 10-under-par 62s around La Quinta Country Club but as is usually the case, La Quinta is the easiest of the three layouts so far this year. Here are the round one scoring averages for the three par 72 courses in play.
La Quinta CC - 67.48
Nicklaus Course - 68.65
Stadium Course - 69.9
The most bizarre shot of the day, or even the year, goes to Adam Schenk but after a two-under-par 70 around the Pete Dye Stadium Course, he has plenty to do from tied 98th.
Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, who both shot eight-under around La Quinta, are the only players trading at a single figure price this morning but with 22 players within three and the stagger yet to unwind, it's clearly wide open and a very hard tournament to predict.
I was quite tempted to get involved with a few players this morning but after much consideration I'm adding just one to the portfolio - Chez Reavie.
Reavie finished very nicely to shoot six-under-par around the Pete Dye Stadium Course yesterday and he could easily move up the leaderboard today given he plays La Quinta. I thought odds in excess of 300.0299/1 were generous.
I'm really irritated to see Christiaan Bezuidenhout in the mix as he was very high on my shortlist for the Find Me a 100 Winner column and both Sungjae Im and Adam Hadwin are in my sights now too, but they play the Pete Dye Stadium Course today so they're likely to lose a bit of ground today.
18:50 - January 18, 2024
The defending champion and 3/14.00 pre-event favourite, Rory McIlroy, who is in search of his fourth victory at the Dubai Desert Classic, was matched at a low of just 2.47/5 after he played his first nine holes in four-under-par this morning.
It was a great start, but three of his four birdies were made at the three par fives on the back nine and, as highlighted in the Course Details section of the preview, the back nine at the Emirates is far easier than the front-nine, as Rory demonstrated perfectly...
He bounced back with a birdie at the second after he'd missed a short par putt on the first, but he finished poorly with bogeys at six, seven and eight and his par putt at nine thought about missing too.
Rory still heads the market, and he only trails the early leaders, Cameron Young, Rasmus Hojgaard, Haotong Li and one of Dave Tindall's First Round Leader fancies, Andy Sullivan, by four, after posting a one-under-par 71.
And one of those leaders, Young, who now trades at just a fraction bigger than Rory, also demonstrated how differently the two nines play.
Playing in the afternoon, Young made the turn in one-over-par but he flew home on the back nine, finishing birdie-birdie-eagle.
Up with the pace is the place to be here most years and Danny Willett, in 2016, who sat tied for 29th but just four off the lead, is the only winner not to be inside the top-ten after round one since Alvaro Quiros won after a slow start in blustery conditions back in 2011 but I'm not convinced it's going to be that simple this year.
The rough is up and the greens are already running very fast, so scoring is tougher around the Majlis Course than we witness here most years and the chances of someone getting to Bryson DeChambeau's 24-under-par tournament record score, set in 2019, are remote to say the least.
Only once in the last 14 years, in 2020, has the lead been as high as -5 after day one, and we witnessed all sorts of drama that year with the two playoff protagonists, the winner, Lucas Herbert, and the runner-up, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, both getting matched in-running at 1000.0999/1.
Given the conditions, this could easily turn in to something of a grind, so at an average price of just over 60.059/1, I've had a tiny bet on the Open Champion, Brian Harman, who sits alongside the world number two, Rory, on -1.
A double-bogey at the ninth, his 18th, took the gloss of Harman's opening round on debut today but American's have a fabulous record in the event, and I can see him grafting in the tough conditions when others have cried enough.
The American Express has just started and it's currently live on Sky and I'll take a look at that one tomorrow after the opening round.
Dubai Desert Classic Pre-Event Pick:
Ryan Fox @ 44.043/1
In-Play Picks:
Brian Harman @ 60.059/1
Adrian Meronk @ 5.79/2
Tommy Fleetwood @ 180.0179/1
American Express Pre-Event Pick:
JT Poston @ 40.039/1
In-Play Picks:
Chez Reavie @ 330.0329/1
Sam Burns @ 5.49/2
Adam Hadwin @ 16.015/1
Michael Kim @ 17.533/2
Christiaan Bezuidenhout @ 50.049/1
Si Woo Kim @ 60.059/1
Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Antoine Rozner (2us) @ 100.099/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
Ewen Ferguson (2us) @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
KH Lee (2u) @ 170.0169/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
Lee Hodges (1.5u) @ 210.0209/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter