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Wet weather puts pay to day three
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Event reduced to 54 holes
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Chacarra shortens up ahead of tomorrow's sprint finish
16:45 - December 13, 2025
Heavy rain in Joburg has resulted in a day of almost no play at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the tournament has been reduced to just 54 holes.
That's had a dramatic effect on the market, with the two-stroke leader, Eugenio Chacarra, shortening up from 3/14.00 to 6/42.50. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 16:40.
Eugenio Chacarra -15 2.427/5
Jayden Schaper -13 4.03/1
John Parry -12 10.09/1
Branden Grace -12 11.010/1
JC Richie -11 38.037/1
Michael Hollick -11 55.054/1
Oliver Bekker -11 85.084/1
-10 and 70.069/1 bar
The rain has messed up my in-play bets as it's going to be nigh on impossible for Thriston Lawrence of Louis Oosthuizen to close the gap over 18 holes instead of 36.
As highlighted yesterday, 10 of the 15 course winners this century were leading or tied for the lead with 18 to play so it's no surprise to see the money come for Chacarra.
With more rain predicted to fall tomorrow afternoon, the leaders will tee-off at 7:20 but with the weather looking decidedly dodgy, whether they get the third round finished tomorrow is still in doubt.
If I hadn't got involved yesterday, I may have been interested in playing Jayden Schaper at around 3/14.00 with just one round to play but I'm happy to leave the event alone now.
18:10 - December 12, 2025
We've reached the halfway stage of the Alfred Dunhill Championship and pre-event 60.059/1 chance, Eugenio Chacarra, leads by two. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 18:00.
Eugenio Chacarra -15 3.814/5
Jayden Schaper -13 3.953/1
Branden Grace -12 9.08/1
John Parry -12 10.09/1
JC Ritchie -11 26.025/1
Michael Hollick -11 46.045/1
Oliver Bekker -11 65.064/1
Daniel van Tonder -10 48.047/1
Christiaan Burke -10 95.094/1
Thriston Lawrence -9 36.035/1
Louis Osthuizen -9 46.045/1
Antoine Rozner -9 70.069/1
-9 and 50.049/1 bar
With it's usual venue, Leopard Creek, said to be under stress after an intensely hot summer, this year's renewal is being played around the East Course at Royal Johannesburg so looking back at the last 20 years' worth of event form is a waste of time but we've got plenty of history to look at here, with as many as 15 different events being staged here since 2002.
The Joburg Open was staged at Royal Johannesburg 11 times between 2007 and 2017 (three rounds around the East Course and one around the West), and it's also been the venue for some Sunshine Tour events, a couple of which were staged over only 54 holes.
Whether over three rounds or four, 10 of the 15 course winners this century have been leading or tied for the lead with 18 to play, but we've seen three Joburg winners come from off the pace at halfway.
Richard Sterne sat 20th and six back after 36 holes in 2008, Andy Sulivan sat 21st and five off the lead and Anders Hansen trailed by eight after round two in 2009 before weekend rounds of 64 and 66 saw him win by one.
Darren Fichardt won the Joburg Open here in 2017, but that edition was reduced to 54 holes because of the weather, so we only have 12 72-hole events to evaluate this century, and the 36-hole leaders don't have a great record.
Charl Schwartzel, in 2011, and Sterne two years later, were both tied for the lead at this stage when they won here for a second time but they're the only halfway leaders or co-leaders to kick on and win.
The top four on the leaderboard dominate the market and a strong case can be made for each of them, but I don't want to back any of them.
The classy Spaniard, Chacarra, was an impressive winner on the LIV Golf circuit in 2022 and he held on nicely to win on the DP World Tour in India last year, having been tied for the lead at halfway, but he hasn't impressed greatly in-contention since.
He was disappointing at the China Open in April, where he finished fourth after being tied for the lead after rounds two and three and he performed poorly in round four in Italy at the end of June, falling from second and one off the lead to seventh place and six back.
His second round started with this incredible eagle at the first and he didn't do much wrong all day but he's leading thanks to several lengthy putts, and I'm not convinced that's sustainable.
Over the last 10 years, 81 men have led a DP World Tour event by two strokes and only 19 of them went on to win (23%), suggesting there isn't any juice in the Spaniard's price at less than 3/14.00.
Despite playing his first five holes of the event in two-over-par, Chacarra's nearest challenger at halfway is the 24-year-old South African, Jayden Shapher, but I'm never in a rush to back someone that's never won before at a short price.
He's a very classy performer and he was backed in to around 12/113.00 before the off but I'm happy to swerve him at less than 3/14.00.
England's John Parry, who defends his Mauritius Open title next week, is alongside Branden Grace in a tie for third and given seven of the last eight Joburg Open winners at this venue were South African and 10 of the last 12 editions of this event have been won by a South African, I'd rather back Grace than Parry.
Grace won here back in 2012 so like Schwartzel and Sterne, he's in search if his second victory at the venue and he's a tempting price at 8/19.00 but he hasn't won anywhere in four years and that's a bit off putting.
It's a really tricky event to weigh up but I'm happy to throw a few pounds at three South Africans that sit just off the pace.
It's extremely difficult to back up a low round so the bang in-form Michael Horlick, who finished fourth in Australia last week, is up against it tomorrow after today's 63 but I thought he was too big at 46.045/1 and I'm also happy to chance both Thriston Lawrence at 40.039/1 and Louis Oosthuizen at 46.045/1.
Both men sit tied for ninth and six off the lead so they need to go super low to get involved and they may need a little help from the leader too.
With stormy weather in the forecast, round three is starting early with the leaders teeing off at 8:30 local time (6:30 UK time) and the action starts live on Sky at 6:00.