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Stats heavily favour the two-stroke leader with 18 to play
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Norwegian poised to pounce should the leader struggle
20:20 - October 18, 2025
There's just 18 holes to play at the DP World India Championship, where Keita Nakajima has hit the front after a sensation third round at Delhi Golf Club.
Here's the 54 holes leaderboard with prices to back at 20:10.
Keita Nakajima -17 2.6613/8
Tommy Fleetwood -15 3.259/4
Shane Lowry -14 8.88/1
Brian Harman -13 18.535/2
Daniel Hillier -13 36.035/1
Jens Danthorp -13 42.041/1
Alex Fitxpatrick -13 44.043/1
Viktor Hovland -12 25.024/1
Brandon Robinson-Thompson -12 100.099/1
-11 and 110.0109/1 bar
The 36-hole leader, Tommy Fleetwood, was matched at as short as 1.794/5 after he'd played the front nine in three-under-par today but after Nakajima had signed for his seven-under-par 65 the Englishman needed this outrageous stroke of luck to birdie the last to get to within two of the Japanese.
Fleetwood didn't do much wrong, and the putter was largely to blame for his level par back nine, but he may well be better suited to chasing than he is to leading and I'm not surprised that he's shortened up from 3.412/5 to 3.259/4 since he signed for his three-under-par 69.
Fleetwood commands plenty of respect but the stats suggest the market is correct to favour the frontrunner...
There have been 34 tournaments played at Delhi Golf Club in the last 30 years and only one of the 34 winners, course specialist SSP Chawrasia, at the 2014 Panasonic Open, has begun the final round sitting outside the top 10.
Chawrasia sat tied for 11th and five off the lead before the fourth and final round, but every other course winner over the last 30 years has been inside the top six places with 18 to play.
Manuel Tabuena won the DGC Open here two years ago having sat tied for sixth and six off the lead, but he was helped considerably by course specialist, Rashid Khan, who shot 72 in round four having led by three with 18 to play.
As many as eight of the last nine course winners were leading or tied for the lead with 18 to play so it's clearly tough to make up ground here and Nakajima may prove tough to pass.
This is the seventh time he's led or been tied for the lead with a round to go and he's looking to convert for the third time.
He won the ABC Championship in his homeland two years ago having led by a stroke after 54 holes and he won the Indian Open in March last year having led by four with 18 to play but I'm not convinced he's going to be bombproof tomorrow.
When he won in India he finished round four scruffily and posted 73 on Sunday and he also shot 73 at the Nippon Series JT Cup in Japan in December last year. A round that saw him slip from first, leading by one, to fourth, beaten by four.
Shane Lowry is the only other player trading at a single-figure price, but he makes little appeal given he hasn't really kicked on after his purple patch on the back nine on day one that saw him birdie five holes in-a-row.
I suspect one of the front two will get the job done but I'm happy to leave the event alone now and shout on my pre-event pick, Brian Harman, who battled back nicely after a terrible start to his day today, and yesterday's in-play pick, Viktor Hovland, who just needs to hole a few more putts.
Ranking first for Driving Accuracy, third for Greens In Regulation, and fifth for Scrambling after three rounds, and having shot 11-under-par for his last two rounds, without dropping a shot, the Norwegian is clearly in the groove and if the front two do underperform tomorrow, he could be the man to defy the stats.
15:20 - October 17, 2025
We've reached the halfway stage of the DP World India Championship, and the cream has risen to the top at Delhi Golf Club with the world number five, Tommy Fleetwood, just one stroke ahead of Open winners, Shane Lowry and Brain Harman. Here's the 36 holes leaderboard with prices to back at 15:00.
Tommy Fleetwood -12 2.8615/8
Shane Lowry -11 5.95/1
Brian Harman -11 7.26/1
Keita Nakajima -10 17.016/1
Joost Luiten -9 34.033/1
Brandon Robinson-Thompson -9 55.054/1
Ben Griffin -8 17.533/2
Thriston Lawrence -8 40.039/1
Michael Kim -8 44.043/1
Martin Couvra -8 65.064/1
Daniel Hillier -8 100.099/1
Alex Fitxpatrick -8 110.0109/1
Marcel Schneider -8 140.0139/1
Jorge Campillo -7 150.0149/1
Andy Sullivan -7 180.0179/1
Casey Jarvis -7 250.0249/1
Rory McIlroy -6 24.023/1
Viktor Hovland -6 46.045/1
-6 and 260.0259/1 bar
Having began his second round at the 10th hole early this morning, the well-backed pre-event second favourite, Tommy Fleetwood, who was nicely backed into around 7.613/2 before the off, birdied his 18th hole, the ninth, to take a one stroke lead.
The pre-event favourite, Rory McIlroy, was amongst those that began their second round in the afternoon today but after a second successive three-under 69, he trails by five at halfway, and Keita Nakajima, who trails by two, is the only player in the top four that was drawn AM-PM.
Although he's been tied for the lead at halfway 11 times previously, this is only the fifth time in Fleetwood's career that he's held a clear advantage after 36 holes and he's looking to convert for the very first time.
His record when leading, or co-leading at this stage is far from great and until he kicked on and won the Tour Championship at the end of August this year, having been tied at the top with Russell Henley at halfway, his record was zero from 14 when in front after 36 holes.
A case could be made that now he's won on the PGA Tour, he's going to be a far stronger contender in contention, but I'm not convinced, and I'm certainly not convinced enough to back him at less than 2/13.00 given the strength of the challengers.
Shane Lowry is the most likely to win should Tommy fail, according to the market, but I'm happy to swerve him too.
He got very hot on the back nine yesterday afternoon, birdying five in-a-row from the 11th but it was a bit more of a grind today (played his first 11 holes in level-par).
His chance is obvious but at the prices available, Brian Harman, at more than a point bigger, looks a better bet.
Harman shot four-under on Thursday and seven-under today so as suspected before the off, the course really does suit his eye.
Having backed Harman before the off at 27.026/1, I'm obviously happy to have him onside but I've added to the portfolio with three halfway plays.
Ben Griffin's career has really taken off this year and his excellent short game is perfect for Delhi so it's no surprise to see him in-the-mix and I'm happy to play him at around 16/117.00.
Back Ben Griffin
Griffin made three bogeys on Thursday, and he was two-over par for his second round after seven holes today so that's a bit of a concern but the more he learns about the track, the more it appears to suit him.
On the same score as Griffin, I thought Thriston Lawrence looked fractionally over-priced at almost 40/141.00.
The prolific South African enjoys a tree-lined test and if he can just improve fractionally on and around the greens over the weekend, he'll be there or thereabouts come Sunday afternoon.
Back Thriston Lawrence
Lawrence is clearly playing nicely from tee-to-green given he ranks second for Driving Distance, 17th for Driving Accuracy and sixth for Greens In Regulation at the halfway stage.
And finally, after a bit of a slow start, Viktor Hovland, warmed up nicely today.
Hovland compared the course to El Camaleón in Mexico, a track at which he won back-to-back World Wide Technology Championship titles at in 2020 and 2021, and he looks a bit big at more than 40/141.00.
Sitting alongside Rory in a tie for 17th and five off the lead, the Norwegian has plenty on his plate, but he won the Memorial Tournament two years ago having trailed by eight at halfway and he won the BMW Championship two months later having been seven adrift after 36 holes.
Back Viktor Hovland