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Straka's record when leading is strong
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Scheffler still odds-on at Albany
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Two chanced from off the pace
10:15 - December 7, 2025
The hat-trick seeking pre-event favourite, Scottie Scheffler, was matched at just 1.374/11 on the back nine of his third round of the Hero World Challenge when it looked highly likely that he was going to take a lead into round four.
Bidding to win the event for a third year-in-a-row, he looked like holding at least a two-stroke lead when his eagle putt on the par five 15th finished just shy of the hole but moments later his playing partner, Sepp Straka, rolled in his eagle putt on the same hole form 17 feet and after Scheffler had bogeyed both 16 and 18, it's the Austrian who shows the way with 18 to play.
Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:00.
Sepp Straka -17 3.613/5
Scottie Scheffler -16 1.845/6
Hideki Matsuyama -14 16.015/1
Alex Noren -14 23.022/1
J. J Spaun -13 32.031/1
Wyndham Clark -13 50.049/1
Cameron Young -12 65.064/1
Justin Rose -12 90.089/1
-10 and 450.0449/1 bar
As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, we've witnessed all sorts of drama here previously with Charley Hoffman (2017) and Collin Morikawa (2021) both failing to convert five-stroke 54-hole leads so this might not be the two-man tussle it appears on paper.
Straka finished fifth on the Korn Ferry Tour way back in 2018 having led by a stroke with 18 to play but he's converted two of his 54-hole leads on the PGA Tour.
He won The American Express by two having led by four in January and he won the Truist Championship in May having been tied at the top with a round to go, but he finished seventh, beaten by five, at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February having led by a stroke through three rounds.
That's a solid enough record and he's highly likely to prove a stout enough opponent for the hat-trick seeking favourite.
Scheffler is still the man to beat but he's finished all three of his first three rounds poorly, bogeying the 18th in round one and playing the last three holes in two-over-par on both Friday and Saturday.
Ordinarily a picture of serenity in contention, he's looked more agitated with himself at times this week and there may be some scope in taking a chance on the chasers.
Justin Rose and Wyndham Clark have both won titles from at least six adrift with 18 to play and Cameron Young can go seriously low of he gets on a run.
I've taken a chance on Clark at 55.054/1 and Rose at 90.089/1.
Clark won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last year when the tournament was reduced to 54 holes when he shot 60 in round three to go from tied 23rd and six adrift to one clear and Rose has come from off the pace several times.
Back Wyndham Clark
He's won from four adrift a couple of times, he won the WGC-HSBC in China in 2017 having trailed by eight, and you may remember his fabulous final round 66 at Augusta in April, which saw him get into a playoff with Rory McIlroy. He'd began the final round trailing by seven!
Back Justin Rose
20:50 - December 6, 2025
Pre-event 32.031/1 chance, Kristoffer Reitan, was matched at as low as 1.091/11 to win the Nedbank Golf Challenge before he double bogeyed his final hole of round three following an interruption in play due to dangerous weather.
The late hiccup will give the chasers some hope but it's very hard to envisage him slipping up tomorrow given he leads by five. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 20:40.
Kristoffer Reitan -17 1.251/4
Jayden Schaper -12 9.617/2
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -10 30.029/1
Dan Bradbury -10 65.064/1
-8 and 130.0129/1 bar
Reitan is the 10th player to lead by five with 18 to play on the DP World Tour in the last 10 years and the previous nine all went on to win.
In the last 30 years, 31 players have held a five-stroke advantage through 54 holes on the DP World Tour and only five players have failed to convert, with Jean van De Velde's slip up at the 1999 Open Championship far and away the most famous defeat.
There are very few consistent angles in but if you don't mind backing an odds-on chance, clear third round leaders, on any Tour, are repeatedly priced up too generously and that's again the case here.
I'm not interested in backing long odds-on shots and I never have been but Reitan is trading at around 1/41.25 when 30 years' worth of data suggests he be should nearer to 1/51.20, so win or lose, anyone taking the 1.251/4 is getting a very fair price.
11:00 - December 6, 2025
We've reached the halfway stage of the Hero World Challenge and despite a disappointing three-under-par 69 on Friday, which saw him fall out of the lead, Scottie Scheffler, still heads the market.
The world number one, who's bidding to win the event for the third year in-a-row, was matched at as low as 1.654/6 on Thursday, but sitting tied for sixth and one off the lead, he's now trading at bigger than his pre-event price.
With as many as eight players separated by a single stroke at the top of the leaderboard, I'm happy to leave the event alone but I was tempted to top up on Scheffler at around 15/82.88 on the Exchange.
Over on the DP World Tour, the third round of the Nedbank Challenge is well underway and currently live on Sky and I'll be back this evening with a look at that one with 18 to play but the Australian Open has already reached that stage so here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:50.
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen -14 2.89/5
Si Woo Kim -12 6.411/2
Carols Ortiz -12 7.87/1
Cam Smith -12 7.87/1
Jose Luis Ballester -11 20.019/1
Min Woo Lee -10 20.019/1
Adam Scott -10 23.022/1
Daniel Hillier -10 27.026/1
Wenyi Ding -9 60.059/1
-8 and 150.0149/1 bar
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen finished the third round in style at Royal Melbourne to take a two-shot leader into the fourth and final round and history suggests he's going to be tough to catch.
Craig Parry, who had trailed by a stroke with 18 to play, beat the third round leader, Nick O'Hern, in a playoff at the 2005 Heineken Classic and Ernie Els won the 2003 edition of that event having trailed by three through 54 holes but the other five course winners over the last 30 years at Royal Melbourne were all in front with a round to go.
All that bodes well for the 26-year-old Dane in front and odds of around 7/42.75 on the Exchange appear very fair.
He won three times on the HotelPlanner Tour last year, and he played nicely under the gun at the DP World Tour Championship last month when he finished third, beaten by a stroke, having been tied for the lead after three rounds.
I was tempted to play the leader given he appears a little bigger than he should be, but I've decided to leave the event alone and wait for a better opportunity.
All three players tied for second and two back are straight out of the top drawer and it's very hard to see all three failing to shoot a decent score in round four.
16:10 - December 5, 2025
Despite dropping a shot at the 18th hole of his first round, the pre-event favourite, Scottie Scheffler, is still trading at odds-on to win the Hero World Challenge with three rounds to play in the Bahamas.
Scheffler was matched at as low as 1.654/6 before the late stumble and trading at around 10/111.91, he'll begin today's second round tied for the lead with five others.
Having backed the world number one at 7/42.75 before the off, I'm happy enough with the start and I'm leaving the event alone for now.
Over on the DP World Tour, both the Australian Open and the Nedbank Challenge have reached the halfway stage so here are the two leaderboards with prices to back at 16:00.
Australian Open
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen -9 5.24/1
Daniel Rodrigues -9 19.018/1
Min Woo Lee -8 5.24/1
Adam Scott -7 10.519/2
Carols Ortiz -7 14.013/1
Cam Smith -7 15.014/1
Si Woo Kim -6 16.531/2
Ryan Fox -6 23.022/1
Wenyi Ding -6 23.022/1
Daniel Hillier -6 25.024/1
Caleb Surratt -6 34.033/1
Rafa Cabrera-Bello -6 75.074/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat -6 90.089/1
Elvis Smylie -5 50.049/1
Jose Luis Ballester -5 55.054/1
Rory McIlroy -2 38.037/1
-5 and 100.099/1 bar
Nedbank Challenge
Kristoffer Reitan -12 2.942/1
Adrien Saddier -115.69/2
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -9 6.411/2
Julien Guerrier -9 23.022/1
Garrick Higgo -7 15.014/1
Andy Sullivan -7 40.039/1
Daniel van Tonder -7 85.084/1
Jungwan Lee -7 110.0109/1
Jayden Schaper -6 32.031/1
Viktor Hovland -5 25.024/1
-5 and 50.049/1 bar
The pre-event favourite Down Under, Rory McIlroy looked likely to miss the cut at Royal Melbourne after this remarkable air shot on the 14th hole in round two, but it seemed to inspire him.
The world number two birdied three of his last four holes to make it through to the weekend and despite trailing by seven, he's not out of it yet.
Ernie Els was three clear here at halfway when he won the Heineken Classic in 2002 and he was seven in front when he won the event for a third time in-a-row two years later but he was 10 adrift in a tie for 37th when he won the second of his three titles in 2003 so it's clearly possible to win from off the pace.
Rory kicks off his third round at 22:39 UK time and Sky Sports are going live at midnight for those capable of existing without sleep.
I'd love to be able to watch it live as the course is an absolute gem but it's simply too late or too early (whichever way you want to view it) for me to catch it as it unfolds.
The market is struggling to separate Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen and Min Woo Lee and there are three star names sitting tied for fourth so it's a really tough tournament to entangle.
I was tempted to play Carlos Ortiz at bigger than 12/113.00 but in the end I've just plumped for a small wager on a big outsider.
Fine links exponents have shone at Royal Melbourne over the years and Kiradech Aphibarnrat, who trails by just three, is someone with a proven links record, so I was happy to chance him modestly at 90.089/1.
Back Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Over at the Nedbank Challenge, the first-round leader, Kristoffer Reitan, and Frenchman, Adrien Saddier, both threatened to put daylight between themselves and the remainder.
Reitan has already been matched at a low of 2.1411/10 and Saddier 3.259/4 but both men stumbled late on in round two.
Saddier dropped shots at 16 and 18 and the Norwegian bogeyed 15 and 16, although he did edge ahead again with a birdie three at the 18th.
Front runners used to have a fair record when there were only 12 men in the field, but it's been possible to come form off the pace of late and we can definitely scan down the leaderboard in search of the winner nowadays.
Max Homma won the event wire-to-wire two years ago and last year's winner, Johannes Veehman, trailed by only two at halfway but he was five adrift with 18 to play.
Tommy Fleetwood trailed by four after 36 holes when he won here in 2022 and the three winners before him were all five adrift at halfway so with all that in mind, I was more than happy to chance Daniel van Tonder at 85.084/1.
Back Daniel van Tonder
The South African trails by five and he was five back when he won the South African Open here in 2021.
He also won the Royal Swazi Open here in 2020, by seven strokes, so it's a course he really loves and that price looks generous.