The Punter's In-Play Blog: Clear leaders look home and hosed

• Scheffler up by four at Muirfield Village

• Soderberg eases eight clear

07:05 - June 9, 2024

Scottie Scheffler started the third round of the Memorial Tournament in superb fashion, birdying two of his first three holes and he was matched at just 1.21/5 when he led by five early in the round.

It looked like it was going to be a serene passage to the title but a triple-bogey at the ninth saw his lead evaporate and tied with Adam Hadwin at the turn, he drifted all the way back out to almost even money.

Not even the best in the world is immune to Jack's Place.

Scottie Scheffler still holds a share of the lead after making triple bogey on No. 9 @MemorialGolf. pic.twitter.com/k7a94BWQAz

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 8, 2024

It didn't take him long to repair the damage on the back-nine though and with none of his nearest challengers putting up much of a fight, he goes into today's fourth and final round with a four shot lead.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 7:00.

Scottie Scheffler -10 1.261/4
Collin Morikawa -6 13.012/1
Sepp Straka -6 23.022/1
Adam Hadwin -6 34.033/1
Xander Schauffele -4 42.041/1
Ludvig Aberg -4 50.049/1
-3 and 200.0199/1 bar

Scheffler is the fourth player in five weeks to lead by four with a round to go on the PGA Tour and he looks highly likely to follow Chris Gotterup, Davis Riley and Robert MacIntyre into the winner's enclosure.

In search of his fifth victory in eight starts, it's very hard to see him slipping up now but as highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, we've witnessed plenty of market drama in this event over the years and he did hit a few loose shots yesterday.

Since 1996, 65 players have held a four-stroke lead in a 72-hole stroke play event on the PGA Tour and 48 of them went on to win.

That's a strike rate of 74% so given he's the best player on the planet, he can't be described as poorly priced at around 1/41.25 and another victory on the eve of the US Open looks highly likely for the 27-year-old.

Scheffler has converted his last four clear 54-hole leads and a fifth looks highly likely.

Over on the DP World Tour, Sebastian Soderberg has eased eight shots clear of the field at the Scandinavian Mixed and it's very hard to envisage anything but a comfortable win for the Swede. The pre-event second favourite now trades at just 1.051/20 and that doesn't look too short.

Only nine players this century have led by eight strokes or more through 54 holes on the DP World Tour this century and they've all converted, although the last one to lead by eight, fellow Swede, Kristopher Broberg, had an almighty wobble on the back-nine and he was matched at odds-against before eventually winning by three.

I'll be back later today with the US Open preview.

11:35 - June 8, 2024

After a pedestrian run of eight straight pars at the Scandinavian Mixed, pre-event 19.018/1 chance Sebastian Soderberg's second round reignited with a birdie at the par three second yesterday morning, and the Swede added another at five and an eagle at six to stretch his lead.

Matched at a low of 1.558/15, it looked like Soderberg might hold a huge lead going into the weekend but afternoon starters, Scott Jamieson and Julien Guerrier, moved to within three and four strokes respectively and the stats tell us Soderberg is far from a sure thing.

Since 1996, 103 players have led a 72-hole stroke play event by three strokes and only 41 went on to win. That's a strike rate of only 40% suggesting the Swede might be worth taking on at odds-on.

Add in the fact that he was beaten in China in May having led by three with a round to go at the weather-reduced 54-hole China Open and that he's zero from four when leading or tied for the lead at halfway on the DP World Tour and he starts to look quite vulnerable.

Anyone wanting to take him on does need to bear in mind how weak his immediate chasers are though. Jamieson's sole success on the DP World Tour was way back in 2012 at the 36-hole Nelson Mandela Championship and at 38, Guerrier is in search of his first win on the DP World Tour.

Those two may not offer up a stern challenge but even so, I was happy to lay the Swede modestly at 1.875/6

Over on the PGA Tour Scottie Scheffler leads the Memorial Tournament by three and he's considerably shorter than Soderberg. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:30.

Scottie Scheffler -9 1.584/7
Viktor Hovland -6 9.08/1
Adam Hadwin -6 36.035/1
Keegan Bradley -5 32.031/1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -5 44.043/1
Ludvig Aberg -4 30.029/1
Xander Schauffele -3 24.023/1
Rory McIlroy -3 24.023/1
-3 and 60.059/1 bar

The strike-rate for 36-hole three-stroke leaders on the PGA Tour is even worse than the strike rate on the DP World Tour.

Since 1996, 89 players have led a 72-hole stroke play event by three shots and only 31 of them went on to win.

That's a strike rate of only 35% suggesting that Scheffler is short enough at getting on for 1/21.50 and it looks really short if we look at his record when leading without giving the numbers much context.

Scheffler has led or co-led after 36 holes 14 times previously and his strike rate isn't that great. He finished second and seventh on the Korn Ferry Tour having been tied for the lead twice back in 2019 and he's won just four times on the PGA Tour having led or been tied for the lead after 36 holes 12 times.

Those numbers aren't great, and they do include the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February where he finished sixth when the tournament was reduced to 54 holes. He was tied for the lead after two rounds there but since then he's converted his last two 36-hole co-leads - at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the US Masters - and he's playing the best golf of his career at present.

He's going to be tough to catch if he continues to play the sublime golf he's playing but I'm happy to take him on at 1.584/7.

Sheffler is by some distance the best player on the planet right now, but all the stats suggest that he's a bit too short.

09:50 - June 7, 2024

The pre-event second favourite, Sebastian Soderberg, opened up the Scandinavian Mixed with an immaculate nine-under-par 63 around the Tournament Course at Vasatorps Golfklubb and the Swede was matched at just 2.021/1 when he began round two this morning with a pair of birdies.

Having looked like running away with the event, a string of pars has followed that blistering start and unless he gets back on the birdie bus he could well be caught by the halfway stage.

Although it's early days, I was happy to get Dylan Frittelli onside at 22.021/1. The South African won the Bahrain Championship as recently as February and this is far and away his fastest start since.

He sat tied eighth and three off the lead before leading all the way after that in Bahrain and I thought he was fractionally overpriced at odds in excess of 20/121.00 given he was joint-second and four off the lead after round one.

Frittelli is one of the afternoon starters so I'm hoping than Soderberg continues to par his way back to the clubhouse.

Over on the PGA Tour, despite a bogey at the 18^th hole, Canada's Adam Hadwin leads the Memorial Tournament by a stroke following a six-under-par 66.

Collin Morikawa led by a stroke after round one of the Workday Open at Muirfield Village in 2020 before going on to win. But Hadwin's the 17^th player since 1996 to hold a clear advantage after round one of the Memorial Tournament and all 16 before him failed to kick on and get the win.

The pre-event 350.0349/1 chance now trades at 29.028/1 and given the strength of the leaderboard and the abysmal record of first round leaders, that price makes no appeal.

Just a stroke behind the Canadian is the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, and stating the obvious, he's the man to beat.

Scheffler has shortened up from his SP of around 5.39/2 to 2/13.00 on the Exchange and it's a perfectly fair price, although there are some big names lurking after the opening day's play.

The brand-new major champion, Xander Schauffele, sits tied for third on -4 after a great day with the putter and he's alongside the likes of course specialist, Morikawa, and Swedish sensation, Ludvig Aberg, with the defending champion, Viktor Hovland, one of five men tied for seventh and just three strokes off Hadwin's lead.

Hovland, and the man he beat in a playoff, Denny McCarthy, sat tied for 17^th and four off the lead after round one last year and the two winners before Hovland sat outside the top-10 places, trailing by three.

In the last 12 years we've seen winners trail by four, five, six and seven strokes after round one and Kevin Na was beaten by Hideki Matsuyama in a playoff 10 years ago having trailed by nine after round one. So all things considered, I'm more than happy to sit on my hands for now and see where we are at halfway.

There's plenty of quality at the top of the early leaderboard but the stats tell us ground can be made up here so playing the waiting game makes sense.

Scandinavian Mixed pre-event pick:

Vincent Norrman @ 48.047/1

In-play trades:

Dylan Frittelli @ 22.021/1
Sebastian Soderberg layed @ 1.875/6

Memorial Tournament pre-event picks:

Tom Kim @ 65.064/1
Billy Horschel @ 90.089/1

In-play trade

Scottie Scheffler layed at 1.584/7

Read the Find Me a 100 Winner column here

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