The Punter's In-Play Blog: Norgaard goes odds-on again at the Belfry

• Scheffler still clear at East Lake

• Hatton falls away at the Belfry

• Two longshots chanced ahead of round of four

10:15 - September 1, 2024

Scottie Scheffler birdied the last three holes of his third round at the Tour Championship yesterday and he heads into today's fourth and final round leading by five and trading at just 1.091/11.

Collin Morikawa, who's a 12/113.00 chance on the Exchange, is the only man within nine strokes of the world number one so the tournament looks as good as over.

Over on the DP World Tour, the pre-event favourite, Tyrrell Hatton, was a huge disappointment in round three of the British Masters, shooting a most unexpected four-over-par 76 and Niklas Norgaard has moved four clear of the field but given the 32-year-old Dane is yet to win on the DP World Tour, that one might not be so cut and dried. Here's the latest standings with prices to back at 10:00.

Niklas Norgaard -16 1.511/2
Thriston Lawrence -12 3.953/1
Jeong Weon Ko -10 32.031/1
Andrew Wilson -8 80.079/1
Jesper Svensson -7 95.094/1
Brandon Stone -7 140.0139/1
Tyrrell Hatton -6 75.074/1
-6 and 220.0219/1 bar

After a quite stunning eight-under-par 64 on Moving Day, it's going to be interesting to see how Norgaard handles being in front this year.

The Dane was matched at just 1.584/7 in this event last year when he led by two after seven holes of the final round but he fell away after that, playing his next four holes in four-over-par before eventually finishing seventh.

He's won three times previously on the Nordic Golf League but this is quite a step up and although he was tied at the top with five others in this event last year after three rounds, he's never held a clear lead after 54 holes before on the DP World Tour.

We've seen 40 players hold a four-stroke lead through three rounds on the DP World Tour since 1996 and 28 of them went on to win.

That's a strike rate of 70% so a case can certainly be made about taking odds of better than 1/21.50 on the Exchange but I'm not convinced.

He's bound to feel the pressure today and my pre-event fancy, Thriston Lawrence, who's Norgaard's closest rival, is an experienced and prolific adversary.

I'm hopeful that the South African can overturn the four-stroke deficit but I've also backed Frenchman, Jeong Weon Ko and Sweden's Jesper Svensson this morning.

The French have been inspired after hosting the Olympics, winning the last two events, and although Svensson trails by nine, with only four men ahead of him, it's perfectly possible that he could find himself in front if the top four struggle. Both men look fractionally big at 32.031/1 and 95.094/1 respectively.

20:55 - August 30, 2024

Following a seven-under-par 65 around the Belfry on Friday morning, the 8/19.00 pre-event favourite, Tyrrell Hatton, heads into the weekend with a one-stroke lead at the British Masters, and now trading at around 6/42.50, he's very much the man to beat. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 20:45.

Tyrrell Hatton -10 2.68/5
Jorge Campillo -9 9.89/1
Brandon Stone -9 14.013/1
Jeong Weon Ko -9 24.023/1
Niklas Norgaard -8 11.010/1
Tom Valliant -8 21.020/1
Thriston Lawrence -7 10.519/2
Lucas Bjerregaard -6 38.037/1
Joost Luiten -6 38.037/1
Yuto Katsuragawa -6 80.079/1
-5 and 46.045/1 bar

It's quite hard to look past Hatton at halfway and odds of around 6/42.50 are fair.

He won the Liv Golf Nashville over 54 holes in June by six, having led by three after two rounds and he has a reasonable record over 72 holes when leading at halfway, converting three of nine 36-hole leads or co leads.

Halfway leaders don't have a magnificent record at the Belfry with only two of the 18 men to be leading or tied for the lead going on to win here this century but it's fair to say that most of them haven't been of the calibre of this week's leader.

Henrik Stenson successfully converted a three-stroke lead in the now defunct Benson & Hedges International Open back in 2001 and Richard Bland won this event three years ago, having been tied at the top at halfway, although he was sitting tied for 12^th after 54 holes after a poor third round!

The three men tied for second behind Hatton were all triple-figure fancies before the off and none of them make much appeal.

Jorge Campillo has been neat and tidy so far, making just one bogey over the first two rounds and he's a three-time winner on the DP World Tour so he's the most likely of the trio to trouble Tyrrell but he's far from reliable in-contention.

Young Frenchman, Tom Vaillant, and Denmark's Niklas Norgaard are interesting contenders.

The French are on a roll after the Olympics with David Ravetto and Frederic Lacroix winning the last two DP World Tour events and the promising 22-year-old, Vaillant, has a better chance than his fellow countryman, Jeong Weon Ko.

And Norgaard clearly loves it here given he traded at just 1.584/7 in running during round four last year.

My pre-event fancy, Thriston Lawrence, is still on the premises after a bogey-free three-under-par 69 and he looks fairly priced at around 10/111.00 but I'm going to leave the event alone for now and reassess after round three.

In addition to Lawrence, my 130.0129/1 Find Me a 100 Winner fancy, Lucas Bjerregaard, is on the fringes of contention, despite double bogeying the seventh hole this afternoon (his 16^th hole of the day) so I'm happy to let things roll and see where we are with a round to go but I can't pretend I wasn't tempted to side with Hatton.

At the time of writing, Scottie Scheffler has just made the turn in round two of the Tour Championship and he still leads by six.

Should anything significant happen on the back-nine, I'll take a look at that event in the morning at the halfway stage but it's not an event that interests me while Scottie's running away with it so I'll probably be back on Sunday morning with a look at the two events with a round to go.

09:10 - August 30, 2024

World number one, Scottie Scheffler, began this week's Tour Championship at the top of the FedEx Cup standings and with a two-stroke lead over Xander Schauffele but the two were tied at the top after the opening hole of round one yesterday.

Xander was matched at a low of 2.77/4 after he birdied the first to draw alongside Scheffler, who bogeyed the opening hole, but that was as close as he got.

Given Schaffler had won seven of his previous 14 events, he certainly didn't need a start of two strokes and more over the rest of the field and I can't believe I was alone in hoping he'd struggle on day one to make the season finale an exciting watch.

The bogey at the first gave some hope but not for long. He went on to shoot a six-under-par 65, the best round of the day, and leading Schauffele and Collin Morikawa by seven strokes, it looks like a done deal already.

I really don't like this format and Scheffler has demonstrated perfectly why. With a seven-stroke lead, he now trades at 1.321/3 and it's extremely hard to see him losing from here.

Thankfully, the Tour Championship isn't the only event on this week and the British Masters promises to be a far more intriguing affair.

The second round is underway and my pre-event pick, Thriston Lawrence, is currently tied for the lead after five holes but the pre-event favourite, Tyrrell Hatton, is just one off the lead after four.

I'll be back later today with a look at that event at the halfway stage.

British Masters Pre-event Pick:
Thriston Lawrance @ 40.039/1

Tour Championship Pre-event Picks:
Keegan Bradley @ 50.049/1
Wyndham Clark @ 65.064/1
Aaron Rai - Lowest 72 Hole Score (Excluding Handicap) @ 50/151.00

Find Me a 100 Winner column

*You can follow me at @SteveThePunter