The Punter's In-Play Blog: Two tied at the top in Bermuda

• Lower the value with 18 to play

• Campos makes a big move to tie the lead

• Merritt added at a big price

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22:35 - November 16, 2024

With the forecast suggesting a very windy day, I thought the scoring would be high in round three of the Bermuda Championship, but the tees were moved up, they started early to avoid the worst of the weather, the course was soft and receptive after overnight rain, and the scoring was far lower than I'd expected it to be.

I backed Rafael Campos at a big price this morning as I knew he'd handle the blustery conditions, and I thought he might make headway with others not coping as well but he made ground up on the leaders thanks to a hot putter.

Having birdied the par five second, the Puerto Rican birdied five holes in-a-row from the fifth hole to get to within two of the lead and he then birdied 15, 16 and 17 to post a brilliant nine-under-par 62 and he's now tied for the lead with 18 to play.

The biggest mover in round three was Wesley Bryan, who shot a course record equalling ten-under-par 61 to climb 42 places into solo fourth but it's Andrew Novak, who matched Campos' 62, that heads the market with a round to go.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 22:30.

Andrew Novak -16 2.89/5
Rafael Campos -165 5.69/2
Justin Lower -15 4.3100/30
Wesley Bryan -13 17.016/1
Lucas Glover -12 24.023/1
Sam Ryder -12 75.074/1
Troy Merritt -12 90.089/1
-11 and 120.0119/1 bar

There have been five previous renewals of the Bermuda Championship and Seamus Power, who was tied for the lead with Ben Griffin with 18 to play two years ago, is the only 54-hole leader to lift the trophy.

Power was a 6/42.50 shot before round four, but the other four winners have trailed by between one and four strokes, and they've all been trading at-at least 5/16.00. Brain Gay, who was tied for fifth and trailing by three, was as big as 27.026/1.

With that in mind, Justin Lower, who was impressive in-contention last week in Mexico, looks the value play with a round to go.

None of the front three have won on the PGA Tour before but Lower was handicapped with having to play the end of his third round in the worst of the weather and he's clearly playing well.

Anything over 3/14.00 looks fair so, having backed Campos at a juicy 150.0149/1 this morning, I'm happy to add Lower to the portfolio at 4.47/2 and I've also backed Troy Merritt at 100.099/1.

Merritt, who's won twice previously on the PGA Tour, trails by only four strokes and he's just too big to ignore at a triple-figure price given he sits at 156th on the FedEx Cup standings and he has nothing to lose tomorrow.

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15:00 - November 16, 2024

It's been an interesting third round at the DP World Tour Championship.

The 36-hole leader, Antoine Rozner, played nicely enough alongside the world number three, Rory McIlroy, before eagling the last, Rory yet again threatened to assume command but finished with a string of pars, Rasmus Hojgaard made a big move with a lightning fast start, and in addition to swearing repeatedly and snapping a club, testy Tyrrell Hatton managed to miss this short par putt on the par three fourth.

Hatton misses a putt from a foot!

We've all been there pic.twitter.com/88C5oF9auk

-- Sky Sports Golf (@SkySportsGolf) November 16, 2024

Hatton's antics have created much discussion, and it will be interesting to see if he behaves any better tomorrow but despite his poor behaviour, he's still in the event, albeit only just.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 14:50.

Rory McIlroy -12 2.447/5
Rasmus Hojgaard -12 4.94/1
Antoine Rozner -12 6.86/1
Joaquin Niemann -10 10.09/1
Jesper Svensson -10 26.025/1
Tyrrell Hatton -9 16.015/1
Tom McKibbin -8 90.089/1
Keita Nakajima -8 130.0129/1
-7 and 130.0129/1 bar

There have been 15 previous renewals of the event at the Earth Course and two winners (Nicolai Hojgaard last year and Robert Karlsson in 2010) have trailed by three strokes in a tie for fifth place, but that's the furthest any winner has sat with a round to go, and as many as nine of the 15 winners have been leading or tied for the lead with a round to go.

It's very long odds-on that one of the leading trio wins from here and it's no surprise to see Rory the firm favourite given he has a 53% strike rate when leading or tied for the lead through 54 holes.

Rasmus Hojgaard, who's looking to emulate his twin brother, Nicolai, who won the event 12 months ago, is zero from five when leading or co-leading after three rounds and all five of his DP World Tour wins were from off the pace.

And the least likely of the trio in front to convert, according to the market, Antoine Rozner, is two from ten when in front after 54 holes.

He won the Prague Golf Challenge on the Challenge Tour in 2019 and the Mauritius Open in 2022, but he was poor in-contention on the last occasion that he led with a round to go, finishing fifth in the Italian Open at the end of June having been tied for the lead after 54 holes.

Rory looks a fair price at around 6/42.50 but he's not the only player from Holywood in with a squeak tomorrow.

Tom McKibbin, who also comes from McIlroy's hometown, came from tied 36^th and six off the lead to lose a playoff to Marcel Siem at the aforementioned Italian Open at the end of June and he's arguably over-priced at 90.089/1 given he only trails by four and that there are only six men ahead of him.

With the threat of some very windy weather, the third round of the Bermuda Championship is already underway on the PGA Tour and the 36-hole leader, Justin Lower, has birdied the first two holes.

The scoring is much better than I'd expected so it looks like the wind hasn't kicked up yet.

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09:55 - November 16, 2024

As has been the norm on the PGA Tour of late, play was suspended due to darkness on Friday before the second round of the Bermuda Championship could be completed.

Eleven players did not complete round two at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship due to darkness. They will resume at 7 a.m. local time Saturday. https://t.co/cdjHGDdkW0

-- PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) November 15, 2024

Trailing the leader, Justin Lower, by four, Greyson Sigg, who has holes eight and nine still to play, is the only player yet to finish their second round that's within eight strokes of the lead so the leaderboard is largely unaffected. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 09:50.

Justin Lower -12 3.613/5
Ryan Moore -10 12.011/1
Robby Shelton -10 22.021/1
Sam Ryder -9 34.033/1
Kevin Kisner -9 55.054/1
Greyson Sigg -8 16.015/1
Mattis Schmid -8 17.5
David Lipsky -8 26.025/1
Francesco Molinari -8 34.033/1
Andrew Novak -7 27.026/1
Lucas Glover -7 27.026/1
-7 and 46.045/1 bar

The market likes the chances of Sigg, but he won't be advantaged by having to come back to the course to finish round two if the weather forecast is correct.

The wind is predicted to blow at in excess of 30 mph, with gusts hitting more than 40, so it's going to be a tough day.

Leading by two, last week's runner-up in Mexico, Justin Lower, is the man to beat but looking at the stats for the previous five editions, as well as the weather forecast, he makes no appeal at around 5/23.50.

The inaugural winner, Brendon Todd, was tied for the lead at halfway in 2019, but the next four winners have been trailing by four, four, two and three strokes through 36 holes.

Lower did nothing wrong last week and he may well kick on and win his first PGA Tour title here, but we may see quite a shake up on the leaderboard if the forecast is correct.

The scoring won't be as good as it was yesterday but at least one or two players will find a way to get round and post a good number so there's scope for someone to make a huge move from off the pace and I've added a couple of plays.

Kevin Kisner looks big at 55.054/1 given he has form at a couple of correlating courses and that he only tails by three and I've also added Puerto Rico's Rafael Campos at a huge price.

The 34-year-old also has form at a couple of correlating courses and he's more than capable of playing in the windy conditions expected today.

Trailing by five. he has plenty of work to do today but he's an interesting runner at a triple-figure price.

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14:30 - November 15, 2024

Having been tied for the lead with Tyrrell Hatton after round one of the DP World Tour Championship, the pre-event favourite, Rory McIlroy, began the second in fine style, playing his first four holes in three-under-par, despite three-putting the par five second.

Another birdie came at the par five seventh and he was matched at a low of just 1.738/11 but as so often happens with Rory, just as he looked like dominating the event, he hit the buffers.

The world number three three-putted the eighth to make a bogey five and he caught a poor break on the 10^th when his loose tee-shot finished up in a footprint in the woodchip to the left of the fairway.

That led to another bogey and with the putter not behaving, he didn't pick up another shot until the 18^th when he made the simplest of two-putt birdies after a sensational second shot.

In contrast, Hatton started poorly and warmed up as the day wore on but in typical Tyrrell fashion, he didn't stop moaning!

The lowest round of the day belonged to Frenchman, Antoine Rozner, and after his bogey-free seven-under-par 65, he leads the first-round leaders by a stroke. Here's the current state of play with prices to back at 14:20.

Antoine Rozner -9 11.010/1
Rory McIlroy -8 3.211/5
Tyrrell Hatton -8 4.47/2
Joaquin Niemann -7 9.28/1
Shane Lowry -6 18.017/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -6 23.022/1
Keita Nakajima -6 50.049/1
Jesper Svensson -6 65.064/1
Tommy Fleetwood -5 21.020/1
Matt Wallace -5 36.035/1
Paul Waring -5 70.069/1
-4 and 60.059/1 bar

Looking back at the previous 15 renewals, all the stats suggest we need to be concentrating on the leading pack.

Last year's winner, Nicolai Hojgaard, dropped out of the lead in round three but he was leading by two at halfway and Jon Rahm was bang there after 36 holes two years ago, sitting tied for fifth and trailing by four.

The 2021 winner, Collin Morikawa, had sat sixth and two off the lead after 36 holes and the three winners before Morikawa had sat second at halfway.

As many as four of the first five winners here were in front after 36 holes so given the calibre of the leaders, I really don't think we can scan too far down the leaderboard.

Although he was leading after round one, Robert Karlsson, who beat Ian Poulter in a play-off back in 2010, is the only winner not to be sitting inside the top eight places at halfway. He shot a three-over-par 75 on Friday to drop to 12th, trailing by five, before bouncing back over the weekend and he's the only course winner not to be within four strokes at halfway too.

Having backed Hatton before the off, I'm going to sit on my hands for now and I'm employing the same tactics at the Bermuda Championship, where the second round is already well underway.

The forecast suggested that the conditions wouldn't be too bad today and that appears to be the case with the scoring already better than yesterday.

I'll take a more detailed look at that event at halfway.

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14:30 - November 14, 2024

With the sticky Bermuda rough up at the Earth Course at the Jumeriah Golf Estate, the scoring has been higher than expected on day one of the DP World Tour Championship but the tricky conditions didn't hinder the top two in the betting before the off - Rory McIlroy and Tyrrell Hatton - who sit tied for the lead after the pair both shot five-under-par 67s.

Having rolled in a birdie putt at the par three 17^th from 13 feet to get to -5, Hatton was matched at just 1.330/100 to end the day in front after he'd found the fairway on the par five 18^th but after a poor wedge with his third, that missed the green, he had to settle for a par.

McIlroy then rolled in a birdie of his own at the penultimate hole from 48 feet to pull alongside Hatton and he was matched at a low of 1.111/9 to lead after day one when he nailed his drive at the last.

That looked a bit short and so it proved. The world number three went for the green with his second shot but found the penal rough, right of the putting surface, and he was always odds-on to record the par five that went down on the card after that.

Just a stroke behind the front two, and alone in third, is last week's winner, Paul Waring, and there are a bunch of seven players tied for fourth and just two off the lead.

Backed down from a high of 6.611/2 to around 4/15.00 before the off, Rory is now the 2.915/8 favourite and having gone off at 8.615/2, Hatton is now trading at around 7/24.50.

Although the conditions are said to be tougher this year, this is the third time in four years that 67 was the lowest round on day one so maybe the opening day pin positions have been tougher of late too.

Jon Rahm sat tied for 14^th and five of off the lead after he'd shot a two-under-par 70 in round one two years ago and that's the only time the winner has begun the event with a round in the 70s.

Rahm opened up with a 69 when winning in 2017 and on that occasion, he sat tied for 16^th and four off the lead.

Alvaro Quiros, who was also four back in 2011, is the only other winner to be trailing by more than three strokes after the opening round and 13 of the previous 15 winners were inside the top seven after round one so this really is a frontrunners course.

Although being up with the pace is clearly important, last year's winner, Nicolai Hojgaard, and the 2010 champ, Robert Karlsson, are the only two first round leaders or co-leaders to go on to win but they were both trailing by three with a round to go. And that's as far back as anyone has trailed through 54 holes.

In 15 previous editions, nobody has won wire-to wire, so that's against the front two, and neither of them have a great record when leading after day one.

Hatton has led or-co led after round one only six times and he went on to win just once and Rory's record is even more worrying.

The world number three won five of the first 19 events in which he led or co-led but since winning the Open championship wire-to-wire 10 years ago, he's led or co-led as many as 19 events after round one and he's failed to kick on and take the title every time.

Rory was tied for the lead after rounds one and two at the Zurich Classic back in April this year before winning but that's a pairs event.

How much credence we can give to those bizarre stats is debatable given two of the last times he's been beaten were in the Dubai Invitational in January, where he traded at a low of 1.21/5 and at the US Open in June, where he hit a low of 1.222/9, so it depends how you view him in-contention.

One could argue that it's only a matter of time before he wins an event he's been leading after round one or one equally argue that he's been frustrating in-the-mix of late. He certainly received plenty of criticism after his US Open loss to Bryson DeChambeau.

I'm very tempted to lay Rory at less than 2/13.00 but having backed Hatton before the off, I've now also added course specialist, Matt Wallace, at 22.021/1. He sits tied for fourth and two off the lead and he would have been closer but for finding water off the tee on 17.

Over on the PGA Tour, the weather forecast at the Bermuda Championship is horrendous but the at the time of writing, there are four men tied for the lead at four-under-par so it can't be too horrific.

I'll take a look at that one tomorrow.

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DP World Tour Championship Pre-Event Picks:
Tyrrell Hatton @ 8.88/1
Thriston Lawrence @ 38.037/1

In-Play Picks:
Matt Wallace @22.021/1
Tom McKibbin @ 90.089/1

Bermuda Championship Pre-Event Picks:
Garrick Higgo @ 90.089/1

In-Play Picks:
Kevin Kisner @ 55.054/1
Rafael Campos @ 150.0149/1
Justin Lower @ 4.47/2
Troy Merritt @ 100.099/1

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