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Leader Sepp Straka has carded 65-64-64
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Charley Hoffman, Jason Day and Justin Lower share second
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Market likes Patrick Cantlay as Straka's likeliest challenger
09:00 - January 19, 2025
As highlighted by the market ahead of the third round, and reported in the blog, Austria's Sepp Straka had a chance to make a grab for a third PGA Tour title in The American Express and he completed the first part of the job.
A second 64 of the week vaulted him to 23-under-par for the week, good enough for a four-stroke lead over the field, but this might well be far from done because there are some quality golfers among the chasers.
Leaders and prices at 09:00:
Sepp Straka -23 1.674/6
Charley Hoffmann -19 18.017/1
Jason Day -19 12.011/1
Justin Lower -19 16.5
Patrick Cantlay -18 11.521/2
Mark Hubbard -18 32.031/1
Justin Thomas -17 22.021/1
Max Greyserman -16 90.089/1
Daniel Berger -18 120.0119/1
-15 and 220.0219/1 bar
Straka should feel a degree of confidence returning to the Dye Stadium Course for the final round because he carded his first 64 there on Friday. He's also played nice golf on Dye designs in recent years, notably two top 10s at Sawgrass, two top fives at Harbour Town and he closed out his venture to TPC River Highlands last year with a 61.
Straka has had only one 54-hole lead in his career when oddly he scored much as he has done this week (65-66-64) before closing with a 71 for third on the Korn Ferry Tour. He also carded a 65 and two 64s ahead of posting 69 to win on that circuit in 2018.
His two PGA Tour triumphs came from second and five shots back in the 2022 Honda Classic and T14 and four back in the 2023 John Deere Classic.
He is a bit wary, saying: "I think Stadium's the type of course where no lead's safe." That might make him shaky, it might also put him nicely on his guard. This nicely sets up the notion that the Dye Course is the best place to conclude the event:
The market considers Patrick Cantlay the most likely challenger and he has a very fine Pete Dye course record: three top 25s at Sawgrass, six top sevens at Harbour Town, eight top 25s at River Highlands and three top 10s in this event (with the final round played on this course). He's chasing a first win since 2022.
In his heyday Day was a three-time winner on Dye designs (Sawgrass, Whistling Straits, Austin) but as we noted yesterday (see below) he's not done too well in this event.
Hoffman the veteran contended strongly when second at Scottsdale last February, had a decent year and had a 65 among his log book last time out in Waialae. He was second in this event in 2015 when it concluded at PGA West.
Lower and Hubbard are looking for their first wins at this level, Thomas for his first win since his first child was born.
Thomas might be value if Straka has a bad day. He's only two back of second, has form, course form and incentive (that said, who hasn't?). He's also recorded four top 10s in his last five Dye design starts and was a winner at Sawgrass in 2021.
I'll be back tomorrow with The De-Brief. Thanks for reading along - Steve will be back for next week's action.
14:45 - January 18, 2025
A topsy turvy third round saw the Kiwi Daniel Hillier open up a four-shot lead, spurn it with three back nine bogeys on the back nine, and then sneak an overnight one-shot advantage with closing birdies at 17 and 18.
Tyrrell Hatton got off to a flier with an eagle-2 at the second but three front nine bogeys held him back before he burst into contention (and favouritism) with a 4-under-par back nine.
Scot Ewen Ferguson remains in the hunt despite a third round 74, helped by Hillier's backward move.
The leaders and price heading into the final round are:
Daniel Hillier -13 3.7511/4
Tyrrell Hatton -12 2.0811/10
Ewen Ferguson -10 18.017/1
Ryan Fox -9 23.022/1
Laurie Canter -9 23.022/1
Calum Hill -8 85.084/1
Tom McKibbin -8 46.045/1
Dylan Frittelli -8 130.0129/1
Shaun Norris -8 65.064/1
-7 and 50.049/1 bar
As I noted in my each-way preview, Eichenried in Munich has some sort of parallel with this track. Both have back nines that demand to be attacked and there are a host of players who have won at both - and many others who have contended on each of them. Ferguson won there last year and Hillier was third there in 2023 (and the halfway leader).
Hillier has never led a professional tour event at this stage. When he's been second he's yet to improve on the situation - but all four of those occasions came on the second tier in 2022.
Hatton is 3-for-15 at winning from second with 18 holes to play, but six times he has remained in second and two of his wins from second have come in his last four examples.
Ferguson is not to be discounted. He may have had his rough round for the week and has won with a lead, with a share of one and from on the shoulder of the leader.
Of the last 27 winners on the Majlis Course at Emirates GC 11 were solo leaders at this stage, three were sharing the lead, six were a shot back and two were a couple of shots in arrears.
But there is a sneaky position on this leaderboard: Beware the man or men six back. Viktor Hovland won from that position in 2022 and Rory McIlroy repeated the feat last year.
That notion gives hope to Guido Migliozzi (160.0159/1) and Rasmus Hojgaard (50.049/1) on 7-under. The Italian won the Open de France from five back and the Dane won the Made in Himmerland from six back and the UK Championship from five back. So they have a bit of form for this type of thing.
McIlroy is a further shot back on 6-under and priced 50.049/1.
I'm going to add a small back of Frittelli who may be a touch big at 130.0129/1. He won the John Deere Classic on the PGA Tour with 65-64 at the weekend so could back up his low round on Saturday. He's been seventh on the course. And he won in Bahrain a little under a year ago.
I'll be tomorrow morning with the 54-hole state of play in The American Express.
09:40 - January 18, 2025
There is a relatively bunched top end of the leaderboard heading into the third day of play in Palm Springs. Here are the leaders and prices at 09:40:
Charley Hoffman -16 15.014/1
Rico Hoey 16 11.010/1
Justin Lower -15 25.024/1
Mark Hubbard -15 7.26/1
Sepp Straka -15 4.67/2
Jason Day -14 22.021/1
JJ Spaun -14 23.022/1
Nick Taylor -13 1514/1
Justin Thomas -13 11.521/2
Rickie Fowler -13 44.043/1
Patrick Cantlay -12 22.021/1
Doug Ghim -12 90.089/1
Will Zalatoris -12 44.043/1
-11 and 50.049/1 bar
An immediate point to note is that Hubbard and Straka are favoured over those alongside and above them and for a clear reason: they have already played the toughest track of the three played pre-cut, the Pete Dye Stadium Course.
In others, words, Hoffman and Hoey haven't and so have the two most difficult scoring rounds of the week to come.
Who else in that leading pack has already played the Dye layout? Just Nick Taylor (a further shot back on 11-under Carson Young and Harry Higgs fall into this category).
The Austrian Straka was fourth in this event in 2020 and two-time winner on the PGA Tour. He briefly shone in both of the first two weeks of the year. He was T15 at The Sentry when top 10 after 54 holes and T30 at Waialae when top six at halfway. He's a worthy favourite.
Hubbard was third in Bermuda late year, closed the Sony Open with a 65 for T21 but is yet to win at this level. He's played the event seven times with best of T20 on debut in 2015.
Taylor has a similar tournament record (10 starts, best of T20) yet is a five-time PGA Tour winner, two of them in the last 12 months, the most recent last week in Hawaii.
Young, who is 65.064/1, was T17 in his second tournament start last year and second in the low-scoring World Wide Technology Championship in November.
Higgs, priced 130.0129/1, won twice on the second tier in May, made a strong winner's speech in one of them about Grayson Murray's passing, and he missed the cut last week in the Sony Open which Murray won last year. He was T18 the last time he played this event and has low Palm Springs scores in him.
I'm going to add Higgs with a view to laying if he can card a good number at LaQuinta.
It's also work noting that Blades Brown had a good second day:
17:10 - January 17, 2025
It was not a good Friday for the two superstars in the field.
Jon Rahm crashed out of his Dubai Desert Classic debut with a second round 77 while Rory McIlroy laboured to a 71 that leaves him 3-under for the tournament, fully nine shots off the lead and in a share of 33rd.
The pre-tournament favourite will take hope that he's a more manageable five shots adrift of the quartet sharing third - and hope that the halfway leader Ewen Ferguson and second-placed Daniel Hillier will blink over the weekend.
The pair are both winners at this level but victory this weekend would represent the biggest of their careers so there is plenty on the line for them even though Ferguson leads those sharing third by four and Hillier holds a three-shot advantage over them.
The leaders and prices at 17:10:
Ewen Ferguson -12 5.59/2
Daniel Hillier -11 9.08/1
Jason Scrivener -8 55.054/1
Tyrrell Hatton -8 5.59/2
Shaun Norris -8 29.028/1
Laurie Canter -8 16.5
Min Woo Lee -7 21.020/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -7 12.5
Robin Williams -7 90.089/1
Ricardo Gouveia -7 190.0189/1
Thorbjorn Olesen -7 18.017/1
-6 and 26.025/1 bar
There is another reason McIlroy will hold out a little (valid) hope: last year he was 10 shots back of the lead at halfway so in one sense his task is easier.
But can he repeat his brilliance of the 2024 third round when he carded a 63 that was four shots superior to the next best effort? He'll think so, others might wonder about regression to mean (on this course, however, that might easily mean he's due a good effort). He's currently 26.025/1.
Unlikely weekend recoveries have not been limited to McIlroy however. Robert Jan Derksen was T20 (five shots back) at this stage when he won in 2003 and Alvaro Quiros was T27 (eight in arrears) when he triumphed in 2011.
Blustery, not to say windy, conditions would help, especially if they messed with the later starters but there is no great prospect of that according to the forecast.
Dubai-resident Ferguson is a three-time winner on the DP World Tour, including the 2022 Qatar Masters, and the two most recent examples came when he was leading at halfway (the 2022 ISPS Handa World Invitational and the 2024 BMW International Open). Those are the only solo 36 hole leads of his career.
Hillier has been in the top two at halfway five times in his career and what happened next will either worry his backers or give them hope that he'll have learned lessons.
The first three times he finished top four in the event but he always lost ground on the lead in round three (once by two shots, twice by five). In the penultimate example (the 2023 Qatar Masters) he carded a round three 74 to turn a two shot lead into a four shot deficit and in last year's New Zealand Open he started two back, carded a Saturday 77 and ended the round 10 adrift of the leaders.
Hatton is understandably deemed the biggest threat. He's a three-time top four finisher on the course and he hasn't finished outside the top six in his last four starts.
I'll return tomorrow morning with a look at The American Express at halfway.
09:20 - January 17, 2025
JT Poston has sneaked clear of the field on a first day of expected low scoring at The American Express. Nine birdies and an eagle on the Nicklaus course vaulted him ahead of no less than 82 players who went on sub-70 on the tournament's three host tracks. Here are the leaders and prices to back at 09:20.
JT Poston -10 9.417/2
Justin Lower -9 24.023/1
Chris Kirk -8 29.028/1
JJ Spaun -8 19.5
Matti Schmid -8 38.037/1
Joel Dahmen -8 50.049/1
Jason Day -8 23.022/1
-7 and 14.5 bar
In any week the first round leaderboard needs to be taken with a pinch of salt but with this trio of venues you'd probably need a good tablespoon or two.
Consider that Poston's 10-under was one of 12 rounds of 6-under or better on the Nicklaus Tournament Course. La Quinta Country Club also had 12 scores on that number or better. But the Pete Dye Stadium Course (that also hosts the final round) had only three scores better than 4-under: the 7-under's of Carson Young 23.022/1, Jackson Suber 23.022/1 and last week's Sony Open winner Nick Taylor 14.5.
As you can see from those prices - the market is switched on to the situation.
Here, however, is a counter to the notion that there is plenty of scoreboard change to come: eight of the last nine winners were T11th or better at the end of all four rounds - and seven of those were tied sixth or better.
Poston was a winner in Las Vegas late last year and has three tournament top 12 finishes (two of them in the last two years). Lower is 0-for-3 at getting a top 30 in the event but had a couple of top five finishes in the fall. Kirk was third in the event in 2022. Spaun is looking for a first tournament top 20 at the seventh attempt. Schmid was sixth on event debut in 2023. Dahmen has only ever missed the cut here (four times). Day's best event finish in three visits was T18th in 2022.
It's also worth noting that other than the top seven and the trio who thrived on the Stadium Course, the shortest price is Justin Thomas' 23.022/1.
He carded a 5-under at La Quinta for T28th, was second late last year in Japan, closed The Sentry last time out with a 63, was seventh in the tournament in 2015 and third in 2024. The new dad also as an im in mind:
I'll be back late this afternoon with an update on the Dubai Desert Classic.
16:15 - January 16, 2025
It was a rum start to the 2025 Dubai Desert Classic from a scoring point of view.
Par was easy enough for the field to overcome but precious few of the favourites did so to the degree of the pace-setters - and yet the market retains plenty of faith in the big boys to overcome the fast starters by Sunday tea-time. Here are the leaders and prices at 16:15.
David Micheluzzi -7 38.037/1
Ricardo Gouveia -7 75.074/1
David Ford -7 24.023/1
Guido Migliozzi -6 20.019/1
Ewen Ferguson -5 50.049/1
Calum Hill -5 65.064/1
Mike Lorenzo-Vera -5 150.0149/1
Jason Scrivener -5 130.0129/1
-4 and 6.411/2 bar
What is immediately obvious in those names and prices is the relative lack of interest in many of them as a long-term threat.
Of the three leaders, the Aussie Micheluzzi was a pick of mine in the each-way column at a whopping 225/1226.00 but the market knows he is a course debutant and is yet to win at this level. Gouveia has won seven times on the second tier but not once on the first. And Ford is an amateur who has played three times on the PGA Tour missing two cuts and finishing outside the top 50 in his other appearance.
The other five in the top eight are solid DP World Tour performers - and MLV is a good news story given that he is making a first start after a mental health well-being break - but the market sees the likely winners as sitting further down the leaderboard.
The first round leader stats on the Majlis Course back that up: in the 21st century 39 players have held or shared an 18-hole advantage in this event on this track and only six ultimately won. The last of those was Sergio Garcia in 2017. Three of the half dozen were from the absolute elite (McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Ernie Els), two from a couple of rungs below that (Thomas Bjorn and Garcia) even the sixth (Rafa Cabrera Bello is a multiple winner on the DP World Tour).
The market has focused on the pre-event favourite and co-favourite, McIlroy and Jon Rahm, as the hazards for the leaders. They are the only men priced below Migliozzi's 20.019/1 on 6.86/1 and 6.411/2 respectively.
Rahm carded a 69 to sit four off the lead (T18th) and had mixed fortunes on two key tee shots. At the short par-4 17th he left himself close to the green and in position to make birdie the likely result (which it turned out to be). At the par-5 18th he went through the dog leg and could only make par. The risk and reward on the Majlis is significant and can take some getting used to but Rahm is obviously good enough to fast track the learning process.
McIlroy admitted to being "scrappy" and feeling "a little uncomfortable over some shots" during his 70 that has him five back and T26th. He's finished top 10 in his last 11 tournament starts and only once was more than four shots back at this stage - when tied third in 2022. He was however four back when winning last year and his third round 63 - fully four shots better than anyone else in the field that day - is a reminder of his potency on this course.
Of the nine players tucked on in 4-under, one is another of my picks, Keita Nakajima, and he is currently 38.037/1. Another is the well-fancied Laurie Canter (27.026/1) who was fourth on the course in 2021 and impressed in last week's Team Cup. I'm going to add another - the American Johannes Veerman.
He won the Nedbank Challenge at the end of last year, his long game was in great nick then and before, and he's finished T35th, tied eighth and T16th on the course. He's currently 34.033/1.
I'll be back tomorrow morning with a look at The American Express.
Pre-event picks
Matt Cooper's Each-Way Tips:
Patrick Reed @ 35/136.00
Keita Nakajima @ 66/167.00
David Micheluzzi @ 225/1226.00
Dave Tindall's Each-Way Tips:
Cameron Young @ 40/141.00
Christiaan Bezuidenhout @ 75/176.00
Adam Hadwin @ 66/167.00
Dave Tindall's Find me a 100 winner:
Roman Langasque @ 130.0129/1
Keith Mitchell @ 120.0119/1
In-Play Picks
Johannes Veerman @ 34.033/1
Harry Higgs @ 130.0129/1
Dylan Frittelli @ 130.0129/1
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