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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Malnati leads in disrupted AT&T Pro Am

Steven Rawlings
04 February 2023

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There's one and a half rounds to go in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am following inclement weather on Saturday. Viktor Hovland, priced 7.413/2 is stalking the leaders ...

Gusting wind prompts third round suspension
Peter Malnati hits the top of the leaderboard
The market likes Viktor Hovland's chances

12:00 - February 5, 2023

There were lots of questions flying around last night as the third round was initially suspended for a short period and then for the entire day (as a consequence of which the pre-cut action will be completed on Sunday and the final round will not end until Monday).

"What do we watch the action at Pebble Beach for?!?" was the gist of those queries. For the handicap golfers in the Pro-Am format? No. For the views? Yes. For the course? Yes. For blustery conditions that allow that course and those views to be seen at their best? Yes, yes, yes.

Golf is never more exciting than when wind creates volatility but the three courses were poorly prepared and balls were moving on the swift greens. It was a cock-up that has created a mess.

As a consequence, in stepping into Steve's shoes for this final update, a certain amount of confusion exists.

Here's the incomplete third round leaderboard and prices at 12.00.

Peter Malnati -12 (12) 5.85/1
Joseph Bramlett -10 (13) 8.615/2
Keith Mitchell -10 (10) 5.39/2
Hank Lebioda -9 (11) 36.035/1
Kurt Kitayama -9 (9) 11.010/1
Beau Hossler -8 (15) 29.028/1
Andrew Novak -8 (13) 65.064/1
Brandon Wu -8 (13) 48.047/1
Brent Grant -8 (9) 90.089/1
Viktor Hovland -8 (9) 7.613/2
-7 and 22.021/1 bar

The current pacesetter Malnati is 6-under through his 12 holes of third round action and will start his day with an 18-foot birdie chance. Bramlett faces an up-and-down for birdie when he resumes. And Mitchell has a 58-yard approach to the par-4 11th first up, with two par-5s to play thereafter before the final round starts.

All three are playing Pebble Beach, host of the final lap, too, of course. Is that an advantage?

The market likes Hovland's chances: he is also at Pebble, has found the fairway at the 10th, has one short par-4 and two par-5s to come, and he is the classiest performer of all those at 7-under or lower.

Through 36 holes, Monterrey Peninsula been the easiest test but no-one at tied sixth or better (those priced above) is playing that track. Sung Kang, Denny McCarthy, Richy Werenski and Kevin Yu are playing there but all four have the tougher front nine to play.

In other words, it's a knotty puzzle, one I'm happiest to observe rather than take a position on.

A reminder of the 54-hole history in this tournament which is to say that, at first glance, it is not one to place hope in chasers.

No less than nine of the last 10 champions were tied second or better at this stage and 16 of the last 20 winners were in the same position with 18 holes to play (the 2009 event was reduced to 54 holes). Of those four exceptions, three were tied fifth or better so far from off the pace.

The hope for excitement lies with Vaughn Taylor (who won from six back and tied eighth in 2016) but also with a forecast for more blustery conditions.

It won't be Scottish or Irish linksland windy, but any gusts - at least ones that don't scare the officials - will offer hope of the volatility we enjoy. The added frustration is that a Monday conclusion might lack that element, according to current predictions.

17:10 - February 4, 2023

The final pairing in round three at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, Adrian Meronk and David Law, have endured a very poor day.

Meronk was at the head of the market at the halfway stage and he was matched at a low of 3.39/4 after an eagle at the par five third but he lost his way completely after that, parring the next five before playing the last ten holes in five-over-par, and David Law needed to birdie three of his last five holes to post level-par.

Both look to have too much to do now and South Africa's Zander Lombard is now the man to beat after a sensational nine-under-par 63. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 17:00.

Zander Lombard -16 3.814/5
Rasmus Hojgaard -15 2.767/4
Daniel Gavins -14 11.010/1
Matthieu Pavon -13 15.5
Nicolai Hojgaard -12 13.012/1
Alexander Bjork -12 25.024/1
Adri Arnaus -11 36.035/1
Rikuya Hoshino -11 65.064/1
David Law -11 70.069/1
Julien Guerrier -11 90.089/1
-10 and 110.0109/1 bar

We've had five previous events at Al Hamra and all the evidence points to the top-two on the leaderboard.

The last three course winners were all in front with a round to go and the first two course winners sat second. Jordan Smith won the first edition of the Ras Al Khaimah Challenge on the Challenge Tour in 2016, having trailed by two after 54 holes, and Jens Dantorp trailed by one 12 months later.

Those stats could be slightly misleading though. Both Adri Arnaus and Nicolai Hojgaard were three clear after three rounds and Ryan Fox was as many as six in front so they really were in the driving seat and as Zombard showed today, it is possible to make up ground around this track.

The pre-event 240.0239/1 chance trailed by four in a tie for 15th at halfway so he's not only made up strokes, he's also passed a lot of traffic.

Although he trails by a stroke, Rasmus Hojgaard, who's looking to win the event his brother's defending, is the market leader and I can see why. Lombard looks up against it and I'm happy to lay him at long odds-on in the Top 5 Finish market for three reasons...

Firstly, he arrived in Ras Al Khaimah in poor form after three missed cuts in-a-row, secondly, he has to back up today's super low round, which is never easy to do, and thirdly, his record when leading through 54 holes is poor.

Lombard finished fourth at the 2015 Australian PGA Championship and second at the Joburg Open in 2016, having been tied for the lead after three rounds on both occasions and on the two occasions he's led by a stroke on the DP World Tour here's performed poorly.

Lombard shot 74 on Sunday at the Lyoness Open, five months after he'd been beaten at the Joburg Open, to fall from first to fourth (beaten by five) and on the last occasion he led after 54 holes, he was beaten by six at the Nedbank Golf Challenge in 2019 when he finished eighth after a 77 on Sunday.

I'm happy to lay him in both the Top 5 Finish market and the Top 10 Finish market.

I won't be around to post another update to the blog this weekend but Matt Cooper will be along with a look before round four at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

07:50 - February 4, 2023

We've reached the halfway stage of the <ahref="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/golf/market/1.209330086">AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am but the stagger is yet to unwind so here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 7:40, together with courses to be played today.

Kurt Kitayama -9 12.5 (SH)
Keith Mitchell -8 9.617/2 (PB)
Joseph Bramlett -8 16.015/1 (PB)
Brandon Wu -8 17.016/1 (PB)
Hank Lebioda -8 75.074/1 (SH)
Seamus Power -7 10.09/1 (PB)
Scott Stallings -7 - 12.011/1 (MP)
Satoshi Kodaira -7 30.029/1 (MP)
Eric Cole -7 90.089/1 (SH)
Ryan Moore -7 100.099/1 (SH)
Viktor Hovland -6 11.010/1 (PB)
Justin Rose -6 16.015/1 (MP)
Denny McCarthy -6 22.021/1
-6 and 32.031/1 bar

With a three-course rotation in place before tomorrow's final round at the host course, Pebble Beach, it's difficult to gauge where we are given the weather forecast.

Keith Mitchel at Monterey.jpg

With blustery conditions predicted to worsen throughout the day today, the tee times for round three have been brought forward an hour and it looks like the earlier you start today the better.

Looking at the hole averages over the first two days (below), there's almost a stroke between the easiest of the three courses, Monterey Peninsula, and the host, Pebble, with the toughest of the three, Spyglass Hill, playing almost two strokes harder than Monterey.

R2 scoring → @attproam

-1.255 = MPCC (69.745)
+0.500 = Pebble (72.500)
+1.038 = Spy (73.038)

36-HOLE AVERAGES
-1.204 = MPCC (69.796)
-0.260 = Pebble (71.740)
+0.862 = Spy (72.862) https://t.co/vPZbfQJAFO
-- Rob Bolton (@RobBoltonGolf) February 4, 2023

If the forecasts had predicted a benign day today, those in-contention with two rounds to go at Pebble Beach would be very heavily favoured. The continuity of playing rounds three and four at the same course is always a plus but given how exposed Pebble is, if the wind really kicks up, being at the slightly less exposed of the three tracks, Spyglass, today, may not be as bad a place to be as the numbers suggest.

With an early start at Monterey Peninsula (8:14), Scott Stallings and Satoshi Kodaira, who play together, are interesting runners. Both could make significant moves early on before the weather worsens but that's assuming the forecast pans out as expected.

It's notoriously difficult to accurately predict exactly how hard and when the wind is going to blow so I'm going to leave the event alone for now and stick with what I have.

According to the betting, pre-event pick, Jordan Spieth, who sits in a tie for 28th and five off the lead, isn't out of it yet but the star names have later tee times around Pebble today and I suspect they might get blown away.

I got to watch a lot of Kurt Kitayama's second round around Pebble Beach yesterday, and I was quite impressed. His tee-to-green game was solid enough and had he putted slightly better he'd have been much further than a stroke clear so I'm happy to see what today brings with him.

A winner in the wind in Oman and Mauritius on the DP World Tour, the Californian native has the talent to hang around today and if I wasn't already on, I'd be siding with him today at almost 12/1.

Kitayama has the hardest of the three tracks to play today - Spyglass Hill - but as already mentioned, it's slightly more protected from the wind than the other two courses and it might not be as disadvantageous to be playing there today as the numbers suggest.

I'll be back later with another look at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship after the third round.

19:05 - February 3, 2023

After 36 holes of the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, pre-event 20.019/1 shots, Rasmus Hojgaard and Adrian Meronk, are tied for lead with Scotland's David Law, who was a 140.0139/1 chance before the off. Here's the current state of play with prices to back at 19:00.

Adrian Meronk -11 4.67/2
Rasmus Hojgaard -11 4.84/1
David Law -11 11.521/2
Dale Whitnell -10 20.019/1
Ryo Hisatsune -10 25.024/1
Wil Besseling -10 30.029/1
Daniel Gavins -10 32.031/1
Matthew Baldwin -9 50.049/1
Callum Shinkwin -8 19.5
Matthew Jordan -8 30.029/1
George Coetzee -8 32.031/1
Alexander Bjork -8 34.033/1
Marcus Helligkilde -8 42.041/1
Matthieu Pavon -8 50.049/1
Nicolai Hojgaard -7 26.025/1
-7 and 65.064/1 bar

There was much talk of narrower fairways and tougher rough than experienced last year when Al Hamra hosted both this event and the Ras Al Khaimah Classic in consecutive weeks but it hasn't made a scrap of difference.

The two winners last year, Nicolai Hojgaard and Ryan Fox, ranked 72nd and 60th for Driving Accuracy and at the halfway stage this week, the trio at the top rank 70th, 90th and 118th for DA so it's safe to conclude that missing the odd fairway isn't catastrophic.

There is trouble to be found though, and Rasmus Hojgaard, who ranks 118th for DA, dropped a shot late on today having missed the fairway on 16 and he was lucky not to be in big trouble at 17 after this drive hit a floodlight.

Rasmus Højgaard's drive bounces off a light and back into play! #RakGolfChamps pic.twitter.com/hHLu1Opdk7
-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) February 3, 2023

Rasmus threatened to assume command when he birdied three holes in-a-row from the 12th and he was matched at a low of just 2.767/4 but given how inaccurate his long game is, the market is correct to fractionally favour Meronk.

The recent Australian Open winner has already finished second and sixth at Al Hamra and he's the man to beat at halfway.

Jens Dantorp won here on the Challenge Tour having sat tied for 24th and six off the lead at halfway but the other four course winners were all within two of the lead after 36 holes and both Adri Arnaus and Ryan Fox were in front at this stage.

After Nicolai won the inaugural edition 12 months ago, Rasmus is bidding to make history this week. Brothers have never won the same event on the DP World Tour and I suspect that's a very slight negative.

I'm happy to play Meronk, who was matched at a high of 75.074/1 after a slow start to round one and I'm also having a very small bet on George Coetzee, who started even slower than the Pole.

Adrian Meronk in Ras Al Khaimah.jpg

Coetzee was matched at 1000.0 after he'd played his first eight holes in four-over-par but he's rallied brilliantly after that to get to eight-under.

He still has plenty to do but I couldn't leave him out given he has strong form at four courses I felt correlated nicely with Al Hamra.

Coetzee finished sixth, ninth and fourth in his first three visits to the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, he's finished fifth and seventh at the Emirates, he's twice finished runner-up at Doha and the strongest correlation looks to be with Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course - home of the Portugal Masters - an event Coetzee won in 2021.

12:15 - February 3, 2023

After a relatively benign start to the day at Pebble Beach yesterday, the wind picked up noticeably in the afternoon at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and there was a difference of almost a stroke between the morning and afternoon scores.

As highlighted below, Spyglass played the toughest and Monterey the easiest.

R1 scoring → @attproam

-1.154 = MPCC (69.846)
-1.019 = Pebble (70.981)
+0.686 = Spy (72.686) https://t.co/88MFC1EdBo
-- Rob Bolton (@RobBoltonGolf) February 3, 2023

Yesterday was a perfect example of how volatile the weather is at Pebble and we can only trust the forecasts so much but for what it's worth, we look like having a relatively calm day today before a wild weekend.

Anyone that makes the cut on Saturday night, after the three courses have all been played in rotation, will have to play the host course, Pebble Beach, again on Sunday in what looks like being blustery conditions but it may well be worth trying to work out which side of the draw will transpire to be the most advantageous before we get to Sunday.

Anyone that started at Pebble yesterday will play Spyglass today and Monterey on Saturday, those that began at Spyglass will be at Monterey today and those that began the event at Monterey yesterday, will play Pebble today and Spyglass tomorrow and that could be the best side of the draw.

Spyglass is slightly more sheltered than the other two courses co building a decent score at Pebble today before hanging on at Spyglass tomorrow could be the secret to success this week.

Hank Lebioda leads after round one, following an eight-under-par 63 around Monterey yesterday, and he's one of six players inside the top-seven places that tees it up at Pebble today. The odd man out is Chad Remey who heads to Spyglass today after a seven-under-par 65 around Pebble yesterday.

Given he's no bigger than 33/1 on the High Street, the 44.043/1 on the exchange about the leader is tempting but I'm swerving him in favour of Kurt Kitayama, who sits tied second on -7 and Martin Trainer, who's a further stroke adrift on -6.

I'm a big Kitayama fan and I backed Trainer in the event 12 months ago at 1000.0 so felt I couldn't leave him out this morning at 190.0189/1.

Kurt Kitayama at Pebble Beach Pro-Am.jpg

The three market leaders before the off - Matt Fitzpatrick, Victor Hovland, and Jordan Spieth - all have work to do after ordinary starts around Spyglass.

Fitzpatrick and Spieth sit tied for 61st after one-under-par 71s and Hovland is only one shot better off in a tie for 47th.

All three should make headway around Monterey today but if the forecast materialises they'll be up against it around Pebble tomorrow when the wind whistles.

I'll be back later with a look at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship at the halfway stage.

18:25 - February 2, 2023

The weather forecast had suggested that the wind may get up fractionally in the afternoon today at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship and the commentators soon informed us that the fairways were narrower and that the rough was up compared to last year, so when Dave Tindall's first-round leader picks, Rasmus Hojgaard and Edoardo Molinari, both posted six-under-par 66s in the morning to share the lead with Matthew Baldwin, it looked likely that they might just stay in front.

Hojgaard, Molinari and Baldwin ended the day in a tie for second, so backers have been rewarded with a full place return on both picks but the wind didn't blow too hard in the afternoon and the 20-year-old Qualifying School graduate, Ryo Hisatsune, who was matched at a high of 440.0439/1 before the off, let rip from the get-go and he finished the day in front.

The 20-year-old Japanese birdied the first six holes before adding two more at eight and ten!

Leading by a couple of strokes with still eight holes of his opening round to play, Hisatsune was matched at a low of 6.05/1 as there were mutterings that we may just witness a sub-60 round but his birdie at ten was followed by four pars in-a-row and he drifted back out.

Hisatsune picked up another shot at the par three 15th but a bogey at 18 after a poor drive took the shine off the day very slightly.

Although the 20-year-old had recent form figures reading 31-26-MC, his performance hasn't come entirely out of the blue given he finished second to Cam Smith at the Australian PGA Championship before Christmas and at 16.015/1 the market might just be underestimating him slightly.

There have been five events here previously and two of the five winners won wire-to-wire.

There was only a 0.15 differential between the AM and PM starters today but with barely a zephyr in the forecast for tomorrow morning, Hisatsune could easily get off to another flier and I'm happy to throw a few pounds in his direction.

Playing a few groups behind the leader, two of my pre-event picks, Adri Arnaus and Callum Shinkwin, played alongside Polish star, Adrian Meronk, and the three towed each-other along nicely.

Arnaus (-3) lost his way a bit around the turn and Meronk (-4) started slowly until an eagle at 14 but the three-ball shot a collective score of 12-under par for the day with Shinkwin posting the best round. A five-under 67.

Bunker magic@AdrianMeronk holes out for eagle at the 14th! #RakGolfChamps pic.twitter.com/1eAAVntGO6
-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) February 2, 2023

Rasmus heads the market after day one, closely followed by last year's course winner, Ryan Fox, who posted a five-under-par 67, but I'm happy with the start made by Shinkwin and Arnaus and I'm hopeful they can kick on early tomorrow.

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (previewed here) has only just kicked off so I'll be back tomorrow with a look at that one.

Ras Al Khaimah Championship Pre-Event Selections:
Nicolai Hojgaard @ 26.025/1
Adri Arnaus @ 36.035/1
Callum Shinkwin @ 36.035/1

In-Play Picks:
Ryo Hisatsune @ 16.015/1
Adrian Meronk @ 4.67/2
George Coetzee @ 34.033/1

In-Play Lays:
Zander Lombard @ 1.341/3 - Top 5 Finish
Zander Lombard @ [1.07 - Top 10 Finish

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Pre-Event Selection:
Jordan Spieth @ 14.5

In-Play Picks:
Kurt Kitayama @ 14.013/1
Martin Trainer @ 190.0189/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 2u Troy Merritt 170.0169/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 2u Kevin Streelman @ 190.0189/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 2u Tapio Pulkkanen @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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