11:30 - March 6, 2022
Viktor Hovland was matched at a low of 1.684/6 when he followed an eagle at six with a birdie at eight to go four clear of the field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational yesterday but a back-nine 40 has blown the event wide open. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:20.
Billy Horschel -7 4.131/10
Talor Gooch -7 5.14/1
Viktor Hovland -6 4.57/2
Scottie Scheffler -5 7.06/1
Gary Woodland -4 23.022/1
Rory McIlroy -3 17.016/1
Chris Kirk -3 50.049/1
Graeme McDowell -3 95.094/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -2 70.069/1
Corey Conners -2 90.089/1
Russell Henley -2 95.094/1
-1 and 130.0129/1 bar
The stats here are a little odd. As many as six of the last eight third round leaders have failed to convert but off the pace winners are extremely rare.
Francesco Molinari was matched at 180.0179/1 before round four three years ago, having tumbled from third to 17th with a three-over-par 73 on Saturday. The Italian fired a 64 on Sunday to win by two so it is possible to win from off the pace but we have to go all the way back to 1997 to find the last winner (Phil Mickelson) that wasn't inside the front-three places on the leaderboard with a round to go.
Whatever happens today, I think it's safe to assume we won't be seeing anyone shooting 64 on Sunday this year. The course is fiery and the rough thick and only seven players broke 70 yesterday. Scottie Scheffler and Chris Kirk's four-under-par 68s were the best anyone could muster.
Billy Horschel heads the market and he's converted two of three 54-hole leads previously on the PGA Tour. He's the correct favourite given his experience and 3/1 looks fair.
Talor Gooch has only led after three rounds once before, at the RSM Classic in November, and he comfortably converted, winning by three only two weeks after imploding in Mexico when falling from second to 11th in round four.
Gooch is an exceptional talent, but this is a big ask and as highlighted yesterday, Hovland fell away at the weekend last year. It's going to take a monumental effort for him to shrug off yesterday's horror back-nine so of the front three, I prefer Horschel.
Given 23 of the last 24 winners here were inside the front three with a round to go, the stats point firmly to Horschel, Gooch and Hovland and I'm happy to take 3/1 about Billy.
Those stats are compelling, but I'm not absolutely convinced it's going to pan out so simply.
We witnessed all sorts of drama yesterday and the course is set up for more today so in addition to playing Horschel, I've also had small bets on Gary Woodland and Graeme McDowell.
Thick rough and fiery greens are just the sort of conditions encountered at a US Open and Woodland and G-Mac, who both won a US Open at Pebble Beach, are close enough to prevail should the front-three falter. I though both were nicely priced at 23.022/1 and 95.094/1 respectively.
Over on the Puerto Rico Open, Ryan Brehm has moved three clear of one of my in-play picks, Michael Kim, and he's two clear of a group of four players that includes another in-play selection, Tommy Gainey, and I'm going to leave that one alone.
As highlighted below, this is Brehm's final start of his Minor Medical Extension, so he's plenty of pressure to overcome and he's short enough at around 2.35/4 given the stats.
Since 1996, 129 players have taken a three-stroke lead into the final round of a 72-hole PGA Tour event (including co-sanctioned tournaments) and 67 (52%) of them went on to convert.
That would suggest he should be a shade of odds-on but only three of the 11 players to hold a clear lead at this event have gone on to win and the two players that led by three - Kevin Streelman in 2010 and Troy Matteson a year later, were both beaten.
I'm happy to stick with what I have and see what happens.
13:25 - March 5, 2022
I thought Shubhankar Sharma may be the man to beat at the halfway stage of the Kenya Open but he had an awful day today - firing a very shaky four-over par 74 - and it's Scotland's Ewen Ferguson that shows the way with a round to go. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 15:10.
Ewen Ferguson -14 2.35/4
Ashun Wu -10 10.09/1
Marcus Kinhult -10 12.011/1
Matti Schmid -9 14.013/1
David Horsey -9 18.017/1
Jorge Campillo -9 19.018/1
Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez -9 26.025/1
Thomas Detry -8 24.023/1
Matthieu Pavon -8 30.029/1
Masahiro Kawamura -8 30.029/1
Aaron Cockerill -8 70.069/1
-7 and 50.049/1 bar
This is Ferguson's first season on the DP World Tour and he's yet to win on any Tour.
He lost a playoff to Espen Kofstad at the Sydbank Esbjerg Challenge on the Challenge Tour last year - a result that helped him to finish 8th in the Road to Mallorca Challenge Tour rankings to gain his promotion to the DP Tour - but that's as close as he's come to victory, and it was the third time he'd failed to convert a 54-hole lead.
Ferguson was tied at the top with a round to go at the Challenge de Espana in June and at the Made in Esbjerg Challenge but he finished second and fifth.
He shot 75 in the final round of the Made in Esbjerg Challenge to fall to fifth but he bounced back nicely to lead by one through 54-holes the following week, before losing to Kofstad in extra time.
It's going to be very interesting to see how the pre-event 250.0249/1 chanced (matched at a high of 300.0299/1) handles the pressure tomorrow around a tight track that caught out plenty of contenders today.
He's almost certain to get a bit nervous and he'll do remarkably well to get close to today's five-under-par 66 but it's very hard to make a case for taking him on at odds-against, despite the recent record of four-stroke 54-hole leaders.
We have to go all the way back to 2019 and the Open Championship at Royal Portrush for the last time someone led by four on the DP World Tour and on that occasion, Shane Lowry got the job done with the minimum of fuss (winning by six) but five of the previous eight four-stroke 54-hole leaders on the DP World Tour were beaten.
That doesn't bode well but the overall record for four-stroke 54-hole leaders on the DP World Tour since 1996 is strong. We've seen 39 players lead by four with a round to go in a 72-hole stroke-play event and 28 of them went on to win. That's a strike-rate of 72% suggesting Ferguson is a very fair price.
Ferguson's third round was a source of annoyance given Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Marcus Kinult, moved through the field today to get to double-digits under-par. He's met the first lay back target and he'll be in the final group with Ferguson but like all the chasers, he needs the leader to falter.
Jorge Campillo and Thomas Detry look likely candidates but I'm happy to leave the event alone now and to shout on Kinult.
13:20 - March 5, 2022
Although we've only played two rounds at Bay Hill, we've already seen plenty of separation with six shots separating Viktor Hovland in first and the group of seven tied for six at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Here's the current state of play with prices to back at 13:05.
Viktor Hovland -9 3.052/1
Rory McIlroy -7 4.57/2
Tyrrell Hatton -7 8.88/1
Talor Gooch -7 10.519/2
Billy Horschel -6 12.523/2
-3 and 26.025/1 bar
Although sparse, this is an intriguing leaderboard with just two rounds to go.
Viktor Hovland, who's in search of his fourth win in eight starts is the man to beat but we do need to bear in mind that he was in a great position here 12 months ago before a poor weekend (77-78) saw him slip from third and two off the lead to 49th and nine back, and that 19 players have held a clear lead at halfway here in the last 26 years and only six of them went on to win.
I watched most of Hovland's second round and it was ridiculously impressive and there's nothing in his game to suggest he can't kick on and defy the stats.
This is the third time Hovland's led or co-led at this stage and he has 50% strike-rate. He won the Puerto Rico Open in 2020 (his first title) having been tied at halfway but he was a well beaten second behind Patrick Reed in the Farmers Insurance Open last year after leading by one at halfway.
Matt Every won the 2014 edition having trailed by ten strokes at this stage but that's misleading given Adam Scott was seven clear at halfway but Rory McIlroy has shown recently that ground can be made up here. The Irishman sat 11th and six back when he took the title in 2018.
I wrote yesterday about Rory's poor record when leading after round one and with conditions firming up over the weekend, I'm happy to swerve him. As brilliant as he is, I'm convinced he's better when conditions are easier and I'm in no rush to get him onside.
Tyrrell Hatton looks like one to swerve. The 2020 winner clearly loves the venue but so bad was his long game yesterday that he even threatened to go to the range after his round. Something he rarely does.
Hatton ranks 64th for Driving Accuracy and 60th for Greens In Regulation at halfway but first for Strokes Gained Putting and Putting Average and that's why he's in such a lofty position. He needs to either keep holing everything or find some accuracy and he's more likely to lose his touch on the greens than start striping his irons.
The closest I came to backing one of the leaders was Talor Gooch. His stats are solid and I prefer him to Billy Horschel, who trails the leader by four.
Horschel started his second round brilliantly with three straight birdies and he was matched at a low of 4.67/2 but he lost his way after that and in nine previous visits to Bay Hill, his tied 13th back in 2017 is his best effort.
It's odds-on that either Hovland or McIlroy will go on to win but I'm in no rush to side with either. I could very easily leave the event alone entirely but I have thrown a few pounds on two of the men tied for sixth and seven off the lead - Paul Casey and Sam Burns.
There's a chance that the leaders stall and if they do, I thought those two were fractionally big at 55.054/1.
The Puerto Rico Open looks like a punting minefield at halfway.
Pre-event 70.069/1 chance, Ryan Brehm, leads by a stroke but there are 13 players within three strokes of the two-time Korn Ferry winner, and it looks wide open.
As highlighted in the preview, Tony Finau, who sat 15th and four adrift, and Derek Lamely, who was 35th and six off the lead after 36 holes, are the only winners of the event (first played on the PGA Tour in 2008) not to be inside the top-seven at halfway.
That suggests that we need to be concentrating on the leaders and I suspect the victor will be amongst the group of 13 positioned tied sixth or better but quite who that might be is devilishly tough to call.
Yesterday's in-play pick, Michael Sim, is tied for second and just one off the lead and I've added two more at juicy odds.
Sangmoon Bae lost his form completely when he had to return to Korea for national service but he has plenty of game and I thought 55.054/1 was a bit too big given he's only three back. And the same can be said about Tommy Gainey.
It's now nearly ten years since Gainey won the RSM Classic from off the pace but he won in the Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour less than two years ago and this course clearly suits him.
He led the event after round one 12 months ago so it's no big surprise to see him in-contention this time around.
They're into the back nine of the third round at the Kenya Open and I'll be back later with a look at the event after the round's finished.
19:20 - March 4, 2022
The second rounds of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Puerto Rico Open on the PGA Tour are well underway but for now I'm going to concentrate on the DP World Tour action. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard at the Kenya Open with prices to back at 19:15.
Shubhankar Sharma -10 4.84/1
Masahiro Kawamura -9 6.05/1
Ewen Ferguson -9 13.012/1
Triston Lawrence -7 26.025/1
Dean Burmester -6 11.521/2
-6 and 28.027/1 bar
Lorenzo Gagli sat tied for fifth, trailing by four, when he won the last edition of this event at Muthaiga on the Challenge Tour in 2018 and the man he beat in the playoff, Jens Fahrbring, sat 48th and ten back so we may witness plenty of change on Moving Day tomorrow, although 36-hole leaders have a decent record at the track.
Since 1996, 16 players have led or co-led at halfway at Muthaiga and six went on to win, suggesting Matt Cooper's each-way pick, Shubhankar Sharma, is a fair price at around 4/1.
Sharma is getting plenty of support from the many Indians in the gallery and his game is in good order.
At the halfway stage he ranks 14th for Driving Accuracy and second for Strokes Gained Putting and I'm happy to take a small chance on him at 5.04/1.
Daniel Van Tonder is playing some nice golf but his long game is poor. It was his inaccurate driving that put me off before the off and he ranks 89th for DA at halfway but I'm still happy to have a tiny bet on him at 34.033/1.
Trailing by five, the South African's close enough to put in a charge over the weekend and he has the ability and the belief to win having come from behind to win the Kenya Savannah Classic a year ago and his national title in December.
I'll be back in the morning with a look at the Puerto Rico Open and the Arnold Palmer at the halfway stage.
11:00 - March 4, 2022
Rory McIlroy leads the Arnold Palmer Invitational by two strokes after an impressive seven-under-par 65 around Bay Hill yesterday and he's now the 3.7511/4 favourite to go on and take the title for a second time, having first won the event in 2018 but he's not for me at that price.
Having written in the preview, "he's arguably a better bet in the First Round Leader market than he is in the outright", having advocated him as a great bet-to-lay vehicle in the event last year and having backed him to lead after round one at Riviera last time out at 28/1, I'm kicking myself for not backing him this week in either market. But he's one to swerve or take on now.
This is the 31st time in his career that he's led after round one, it's the third time in eight starts that he's ended round one in front and it's the second year in-a-row he's led after round one here but his record after leading is far from special.
Rory's only gone on to win after leading after round one on five occasions. A 17% strike-rate isn't awful by any means but what's concerning for anyone diving in at around the 3/1 mark, is that he hasn't gone on to win when leading or co-leading after round one since 2014 and he's been beaten on the last 11 occasions he's led or co-led. And he finished 10th here 12 months ago after his fast start.
The weather forecast may also be against Rory given the wind is predicted to pick up this afternoon and I'm largely leaving the event alone for now.
There's plenty of talent lurky behind the Irishman so a patient approach and a reassessment at halfway makes sense but I have had a tiny play on Beau Hossler at 50.049/1.
The 26-year-old Texas resident has been playing quite nicely of late and that's too big given he starts early today and he sits tied for second.
Over on the DP World Tour, Matt Cooper's each-way fancy, Shubhankar Sharma, leads the Kenya Open on -10 but the afternoon starters have only just started their second rounds so I'll be back later with a look at that one at halfway.
The Puerto Rico Open is very much the weakest of the two PGA Tour events staged this week but in Michael Kim we have my idea of one of the best in-play bets I've seen in a while.
Out of form players often find something out of the blue in this event and that certainly appears to be the case with Kim who isn't setting the Korn Ferry Tour alight having lost his playing privileges on the PGA Tour.
Kim was 15th in the Panama Championship a month ago and incredibly, that's his only top-20 finish anywhere in the world since he absolutely hacked up at the John Deere Classic in 2018.
He's kept in very well hidden but given he won the John Deere Classic by eight strokes, it clearly has ability.
He would be the archetypical Puerto Rico Open winner and after a bogey-free seven-under-par to tie the lead with Chase Seiffert, he's too big at 25/1 with the Sportsbook.
There's obviously a very good chance that yesterday's effort was a one off but he was playing deplorably before he won the John Deere Classic so I'm more than happy to chance him, although first round leaders have a poor record in this event...
As many as 17 players have led or co-led since the event was first played as a PGA Tour tournament in 2005 and George McNeil, who was tied for the lead with Matt Jones in 2012 is the only man to go on to win.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Pre-Event Selection:
Matthew Fitzpatrick @ 28/1 each-way (Sportsbook)
In-Play Picks:
Beau Hossler @ 50.049/1
Sam Burns @ 55.054/1
Paul Casey @ 55.054/1
Kenya Open Pre-Event Selection:
Ross McGowan @ 150/1 each-way (Sportsbook)
In-Play Picks:
Shubhankar Sharma @ 5.04/1
Daniel van Tonder @ 34.033/1
Puerto Rico Open Pre-Event Selection:
Kurt Kitayama @ 34.033/1
In-Play Picks:
Michael Kim @ 25/1 each-way (Sportsbook)
Sangmoon Bae @ 55.054/1
Tommy Gainey @ 55.054/1
Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 1 ½ u Tom Hoge @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back ½ u Zach Johnson @ 500.0499/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 1 ½ u Ricki Werenski @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 1 ½ u Marcus Kinhult @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 1 u Renato Paratore @ 230.0229/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
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