- Otaegui six clear of the field
- Leader impossible to oppose
22:10 - October 15, 2022
After a quite brilliant seven under-par 64 around Valderrama today, Spain's Adrian Otaegui, a pre-event 65.064/1 chance, now leads the Andalucía Masters by fully six strokes with just one round to go. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 22:00.
Adrian Otaegui -16 1.192/11
Joakin Lagergren -10 26.025/1
Angel Hidalgo -10 27.026/1
Min Woo Lee -9 18.535/2
Robert MacIntyre -7 65.064/1
-6 and 100.099/1 bar
Otaegui assumed command with five birdies in his first eight hole in round three and he kicked clear after a run of seven straight pars and a huge stroke of luck off the tee on the 16th.
Having hit a brilliant tee shot on the par three 15th, Otaegui missed his birdie putt from just inside six feet and that may have been in his head as he stood on the 16th tee as he hit a poor drive right of the fairway.
The 29-year-old Spaniard looked to be in a spot of bother momentarily but the ball hit a tree and bounced straight back into the fairway.
Otaegui made the most of his fortune, knocked it to 12 feet, rolled in the birdie putt, and also birdied the last two holes for good measure.
Since 1996, 17 players have led a DP World Tour event by six strokes with one round to play and only two of them were beaten. Darren Clarke at the European Open back in 1999 and Martin Kaymer at the Abu Dhabi Championship in 2015.
Kaymer actually led that event by ten strokes during the fourth round before going on to finish third. He was matched for plenty at 1.011/100 and he's never recovered from the collapse.
Ryan Fox was the last to convert a lead of six, at the Ras al Khaimah Classic in February. He won by five but it wasn't quite as straightforward for the previous six stroke 54-hole leader...
After a huge wobble at Celtic Manor, Nacho Elvira eventually won the Cazoo open in extra time last year.
Last year's winner, Matt Fitzpatrick, trailed by three with a round to go but seven of the eight course winners before him were all in front after 54 holes and it's very hard to look past the leader.
Backing long odds-on shots is not my cup of tea but the stats suggest odds of around 1/5 are more than fair.
15:15 - October 15, 2022
Pre-event 120.0119/1 chance, Rickie Fowler, has hit the front with a round to go at the ZOZO Championship but it's Keegan Bradley, in second, that heads the market. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 15:05.
Rickie Fowler -14 3.412/5
Keegan Bradley -13 3.3512/5
Andrew Putnam -12 10.09/1
Viktor Hovland -11 7.413/2
Maverick McNealy -10 22.021/1
Cameron Champ -10 32.031/1
Hayden Buckley -10 48.047/1
-9 and 48.047/1 bar
A return to his old coach, Butch Harmon, and a change of caddie appear to have worked the oracle for Rickie Fowler and he finds himself in front for the first time in almost exactly a year.
Fowler led the CJ Cup by two through 54-holes this time last year before going on to finish third, beaten by three.
So poor has Fowler been over the last 12 months that his sixth placed finish at the Fortinet Championship last month was his first top-20 finish since his third in the CJ Cup and that third place came out of the blue.
Fowler has been in a slump for years and the 33-year-old is looking to win for the first time since he won the Phoenix Open in February 2019, so he's bound to feel the heat tomorrow.
"It's been a while since I've been in this situation." said Fowler after the third round. "It will be tough tomorrow, but also fun. I'm looking forward to the challenge. I'm going to have to play well and continue to do what I've been doing the last three days."
Fowler was a player I'd like to take on in his pomp so I'm more than happy to swerve him here given his in-contention rust and I'm also happy to swerve the second and third.
Having finished fifth in the Sanderson Farms Championship last time out and having finished 13th and seventh in his two previous visits to Narashino, Keegan Bradley was a well-fancied 36.035/1 chance before the off so it's no surprise to see him in-the-mix but he's one to take on in-contention.
This is the 12th time in Bradley's career that he's sat first or second with a round to go and he's yet to convert. All four of his PGA Tour wins have come from off the pace.
An argument can certainly be made for Andrew Putnam at 10.09/1 but the one I like is Viktor Hovland who's improved his score every day this week.
Hovland sat tied for 21st after an opening 69 and tied eighth after a 66 on Friday before this eagle at the 18th saw him sign for 64 on Saturday.
The front three look vulnerable so odds of around 6/1 are fair for serial winner Hovland.
09:05 - October 15, 2022
Having posted a sensational bogey-free eight-under-par 63 on Friday morning, Spain's Angel Hidalgo looked likely to lead on his own heading into the weekend at the Andalucía Masters but fellow countryman, Adrian Otaegui posted a superb 66 to draw alongside him and the pre-event second favourite, Min Woo Lee, plotted his way around Valderrama with a brilliant 67 so we have a three-way tie at the top. Here's the latest standings with prices to back at 09:00.
Min Woo Lee -9 2.942/1
Adrian Otaegui -9 3.953/1
Angel Hidalgo -9 9.89/1
Joakim Lagergren -6 36.035/1
Robert MacIntyre -5 11.010/1
Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez -5 75.074/1
-4 and 25.024/1 bar
We've witnessed the odd winner from off the pace at Valderrama. US Masters winners, Mike Weir, and Bernard Langer, trailed by eight and seven strokes respectively at halfway at the start of the century and Paul McGinley trailed by nine through 36 holes back in 2005.
It's a demanding track and once you board the bogey bus it's hard to halt the decline.
Last year's 36-hole leader, Romain Langasque, finished 11th after shooting 73-72 over the weekend and Pablo Larrazabal finished 29th in the Open de España here in 2016 having led by two at halfway!
Poor Pablo shot 78-79 but those two are the exceptions and not the general rule here and the last nine course winners were all inside the front three places and within three of the lead at halfway.
Given how hard it is to make up ground here, it's highly likely that one of the leading three will go on to lift the trophy and at odds of almost 2/1, Min Woo Lee looks a very fair price.
The 24-year-old Australian did very little wrong last week at the Open de España where he finished third to Jon Rahm and he finished runner-up to Matt Fitzpatrick here 12 months ago (beaten by three), having sat tied for sixth and six off the lead at halfway.
The two Spaniards alongside him command respect, but Lee looks a great price and I'd have priced him up quite a bit shorter so I'm more than happy to play him at 2.942/1.
10:55 - October 14, 2022
The second round of the Andalucía Masters is underway, and Robert MacIntyre has already been matched at a low of 3.412/5.
At the time of writing, he's tied at the top with Spain's Pep Angles on seven-under-par, with another Spaniard, Angel Hidalgo, alone in third on -6.
I'll be back this evening or tomorrow morning with a look at the event at halfway, but we've already reached that stage at the ZOZO Championship in Japan on the PGA Tour. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:45.
Rickie Fowler -10 5.79/2
Andrew Putnam -10 6.411/2
Keegan Bradley -9 5.39/2
John Huh -8 28.027/1
Keita Nakajima -7 50.049/1
Matthew NeSmith -6 28.027/1
Sam Ryder -6 48.047/1
Collin Morikawa -5 16.015/1
Viktor Hovland -5 20.019/1
-5 and 25.024/1 bar
As highlighted yesterday, the two tournament winners to date at this venue, Tiger Woods and Hideki Matsuyama, were both in the van throughout.
Woods won wire-to-wire and Matsuyama led all the way after sitting second after round one but that's too small a sample size to go basing a strategy on and there was plenty of change on the leaderboard between rounds one and two.
The first-round leader, Brendan Steele, has tumbled out of top-20, following a three-over-par 73 today, Adam Schenk, who sat second after his opening 65, now trails by five in a tie for eighth, after a level par 70, the pre-tournament favourite, Xander Schauffele, is now up against it having shot a disappointing one-under-par 69 in round two (trails by six), and John Huh now sits alone in fourth following a sensational 61. That's ten shots fewer than he took on Thursday!
Keegan Bradley heads the very open market, but he makes no appeal. Bradley's won four PGA Tour titles but there was a large element of luck involved with all four victories (the last of which was four years ago) and he's not one I'd want to go to war with.
Rickie Fowler has undergone quite a slump so it's great to see him contending again but he hasn't won since 2019 and looks opposable.
If forced to pick one of the leaders it would be Andrew Putnam at the prices but it's a tricky tournament to call and a very different looking leaderboard could easily greet us tomorrow.
Collin Morikawa, who ranks second for Driving Accuracy and tied fifth for Greens In Regulation at the halfway stage, has the class to close if the putter warms up fractional and the same can be said of Joel Dahmen who sits alongside Morikawa in a tied eight.
I've had a small bet on Morikawa at 16.015/1 and an even smaller one on Dahmen at 90.089/1. The pair have work to do given they trail by five but the leading group look worth taking on.
14:00 - October 13, 2022
The opening round of the ZOZO Championship is all done and dusted in Japan and the pre-event favourite, Xander Schauffele, has hardened at the head of the market.
Having gone off at around 11.521/2, the reigning Olympic champion trails last year's second, Brendan Steele, by three after an opening three-under-par 67 but with his main market rivals before the off all starting slowly, Xander now trades at 6.411/2.
Having won two Safeway Opens and having traded at odds-on at two separate Sony Opens, it shouldn't be a surprise to see Steele contending again after his excellent course debut last year.
Having ticked along nicely enough, the 39-year-old finished his round strongly with four birdies in-a-row, including this slam dunk from the 17th fairway.
This is only the fourth edition of the ZOZO Championship but after the second renewal was switched to the States because of the pandemic, this is only the third edition at the Narashino Country Club so we don't have much to go on.
Tiger Woods won the inaugural edition wire-to-wire and Hideki Matsuyama led all the way after sitting second after round one so what little evidence we have suggests we need to be concentrating on the leaders, but two editions is too small a sample size to get carried away.
I'm going to leave that one alone for now, but I did add to my bets at the Andalucía Masters yesterday when a couple of players I'd looked at closely drifted.
Niklas Norgaard Moller has only just teed off but Ewen Ferguson - also an each-way bet for Matt Cooper in Spain - played this morning and shot five-over par, so he looks like a lost cause already!
The pre-event favourite and defending champ, Matt Fitzpatrick, is also up against it after an opening three-over-par 74.
"I just got Valderramaed!" He told Sky Sports.
Andalucía Masters Pre-Event Selections:
Matthew Fitzpatrick @ 7.87/1
Antoine Rozner @ 36.035/1
Ewen Ferguson @ 90.089/1
Niklas Norgaard Moller @ 160.0159/1
In-Play Pick:
Min Woo Lee @ 2.942/1
ZOZO Championship Pre-Event Selection:
Hideki Matsuyama @ 14/1 (Sportsbook)
In-Play Picks:
Collin Morikawa @ 16.015/1
Joel Dahmen @ 90.089/1
Viktor Hovland @ 7.613/2
Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 1u C.T Pan @ 390.0389/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 2u Connor Syme @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 1u Alex Fitzpatrick @ 320.0319/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter