18:20 - January 22, 2021
The third round of The American Express has only just started but I'm sorry to report that this will be my final update for the week and that I won't be around to update again before round four tomorrow.
Matt Cooper is on De-Brief duties on Monday, and I'll be back after that with previews for next week's two events - the Farmers Insurance Open, which begins on Wednesday, and the Dubai Desert Classic.
15:40 - January 22, 2021
As highlighted yesterday, Scott Jamieson has a terrible record when leading at the halfway stage of DP World Tour events but having set the early pace since round one, the Scot still shows the way at the Abu Dhabi Championship after a determined four-under-par 68 today. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 15:30.
Scott Jamieson -11 5.95/1
Shane Lowry -10 3.711/4
Thomas Pieters -10 4.131/10
Viktor Hovland -8 6.611/2
Shubhankar Sharma -8 27.026/1
Ian Poulter -7 26.025/1
Rafa Cabrera-Bello -7 28.027/1
James Morrison -7 100.099/1
Adam Scott -6 32.031/1
Andrea Pavan -6 160.0159/1
-5 and 150.0149/1 bar
With a birdie four at 18 in round three, Jamieson has kept his nose in front but as impressive as he's been up until now, he's impossible to side with given his record in-contention.
He's led or co-led with a round to go on the DP World Tour five times previously and he's never broken 70 on Sunday. He blew a five-stroke lead at the Volvo Golf Champions in South Africa in 2013 and his finishing positions when he's led or co-led are 4th, 2nd, 22nd, 2nd and 3rd.
It's odds-on that one of the two men in tied for second go on to win the title - the 2019 winner, Shane Lowry, and last year's Portugal Masters champ, Thomas Pieters. Both are Ryder Cuppers with a wealth of experience and they're clearly the biggest dangers to the leader but I'm happy to swerve them both at the prices.
Lowry is a major champion and he's won a WGC event so he's clearly a proven performer but he's often a little disappointing in-the-mix and he's just a fraction short for my liking.
He won this event from the front in 2019 (led by three) and he was four strokes clear at the Open with a round to go six months later but since he won the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational from two adrift through three rounds in 2015, Lowry has gone into the final round trailing by three strokes or less or co-leading ten times and he's failed to convert every time.
He was disappointing on four occasions at the end of last year dropping from sixth to 11th at The Northern Trust, seventh to 17th at the BMW PGA, second to fourth at the Alfred Dunhill Links and fifth to ninth at the DP World Tour Championship. He trailed by three strokes through 54-holes on each occasion.
He could easily kick on tomorrow and convert but he's not for me at the prices and the same goes for Pieters...
Thomas Pieters won the Portugal Masters two months ago, having been tied for the lead after three rounds, but the man he was tied with, Matthieu Pavon, was disappointing on Sunday and they'd began round four clear of the rest.
He could do no more than win there but he's a player I'm often a bit wary of and for good reason. He was tied for the lead in this event in 2018 with a round go but finished fifth, beaten by five, and the 4.131/10 available isn't quite big enough to tempt me in. The only I like is the world number seven, Viktor Hovland, who's late hiccup today has made him a backable price.
Having been matched at a low of 2.9215/8, it looked like Hovland would enter the final round at the head of the market and alongside Pieters and Lowry, but he missed his birdie putt from 11 feet as well as the two-foot par save!
The Norwegian will be furious about such a lapse of concentration but he's a class act and if the three above him faff about tomorrow he'll be more than capable of capitalising.
The likes of Ian Poulter, Adam Scott and yesterday's pick, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, are all still in with a fair chance, as is Shubankar Sharma, alongside Hovland, but I'm happy to take a chance on the world number seven at almost 6/1 given he's in search of his third win in four starts.
10:00 - January 22, 2021
It wasn't event close to as blustery as it was in Abu Dhabi on day two of The American Express but as the day wore on in California the wind got up and it seemed to have an affect on the scoring at the easiest of the three courses - La Quinta.
Having averaged 69.13 in round one, La Quinta averaged 69.83 yesterday and while that doesn't appear much of a change, it is in comparison to the other two tracks.
Having averaged 69.56 on Thursday, the Nicklaus Course averaged 68.93 on day two and the hardest of the three courses, the Stadium Course, averaged 69.69 yesterday having averaged 71.27 on Thursday.
So, La Quinta played 0.7 strokes harder on day two when the Nicklaus Course played 0.63 easier and the Stadium Course played 1.58 strokes easier. That's quite a revelation and one I didn't expect.
As is usually the case, the star names have been allocated the favourable draw and the likes of Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm will now play consecutive rounds around the Stadium Course, having played the easiest two courses over the first two days, so the scoring averages are just a bit odd.
We won't get the full picture until the stagger unwinds completely and the field have played all thee tracks in rotation, but it looks like something to bear in mind in future when the wind picks up. La Quinta is the easiest circuit, but not if the wind blows. Anyway, here's the halfway leaderboard with prices to back at 09:55 and courses to be played today.
Patrick Cantlay -14 2.89/5 SC
Tom Hoge -13 14.013/1 LQ
Will Zalatoris -12 14.013/1 SC
Lanto Griffin -12 20.019/1 LQ
Joseph Bramlett -12 23.022/1 NC
Greyson Sigg -12 25.024/1 LQ
Cameron Young -12 36.035/1 SC
Selected others
Seamus Power -10 26.025/1 LQ
Jon Rahm -8 25.024/1 SC
-11 and 65.064/1 bar
Patrick Cantlay threatened to run away with the event yesterday, He reached 14-under-par after just ten holes of his second round, and he hit a low of just 1.9420/21, but he stuttered after that, playing the final eight holes in level-par, courtesy of a pair of birdies and a pair of bogeys.
Cantlay was matched at odds-on last year too, at 1.51/2 before Si Woo Kim birdied 16 and 17 on Sunday to beat him by one and in 12 of the last 15 renewals we've seen at least one player trade at odds-on without winning.
Anyone that dove in and took the odds-on yesterday will be ruing their rashness but it's hard to make a case for taking him on at bigger than 6/4 now.
Cantlay came with a wet sail 12 months ago (he trailed by seven at halfway) and Adam Long sat tied for 11th and six adrift three years ago but since the tournament was reduced from five rounds to four ten years ago, the 2013 winner, Brian Gay, is the only other winner not to be within two strokes of the lead at this stage and he was only three adrift.
Hudson Swafford, in 2017, was the last man to win having led at halfway but he was the fourth to do so following the format change and three of the last four winners were trailing by just a stroke.
There's been money for Lanto Griffin this morning and I can see why but the value probably sits with the leader at around 7/4 so I'm happy to leave the event alone for now and shout on pre-event pick, Seamus Power.
17:40 - January 21, 2021
As expected, the wind blew consistently hard all day long at the Abu Dhabi Championship today and it was a matter of survival.
Play has been suspended due to darkness with plenty of players yet to finish their second rounds but so far, Jeff Winther is the only man to break 70 (69) and only four others have broken the par of 72. And they all shot 71.
Some players have as many as seven holes of round two to play so the leaderboard could look a little different before round three kicks off but here's the current state of play with prices to back at 17:30.
Scott Jamieson -7 18.017/1
Viktor Hovland -6 3.814/5
Ian Poulter -6 10.09/1
James Morrison -6 (played 14 holes of round two) 23.022/1
Shane Lowry -5 8.615/2
Thomas Pieters -5 13.525/2
Alexander Bjork -5 21.020/1
Takumi Kanaya -5 21.020/1
Erik Van Rooyen -4 20.019/1
Rafa Cabrera-Bello -4 29.028/1
Victor Perez -4 34.033/1
Jeff Winther -4 65.064/1
Julien Brun -4 (played 11 holes of round two) 50.049/1
-3 and 36.035/1 bar
This is still a very tricky tournament to assess and although the wind is going to die down overnight it certainly isn't going to disappear. The forecast suggests a steady breeze over the weekend to keep everyone on their toes and I'm happy to remain cautious.
Scott Jamieson has held on to the lead but I'm not surprised to see him trading so big and I wouldn't be in any sort of hurry to back him at odds-on to finish inside the top-ten.
Jamieson's sole success to date was almost ten years ago at the now defunct Nelson Mandela Championship - an event that was reduced to just 36 holes.
Since that win, Jamieson has led or co-led four times at the halfway stage of a DP World Tour event (formerly the European Tour) and he's gone on to finish 22nd, 14th, 42nd and 21st. He's one to take on in-contention.
Viktor Hovland is quite rightly a warm favourite but he's too short for my liking with so many players in-contention around a blustery links track and others are preferred.
Trailing by two, the 2019 Open winner, Shane Lowry, is a very obvious candidate but the one I like at the prices is the recent Open de Espana winner, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, who relished the conditions today.
Rafa's far from prolific and his homeland victory in October was his first win in more than four years but I'm happy to take a tiny chance that he can follow up so soon here.
It's ten years since he won next week's event, the Dubai Desert Classic, so he's a winner in the region already and his victory at the Scottish Open in 2017 was at the Dundonald Links - another track designed by Kyle Philips, who's the man responsible for this week's track.
In addition to backing Rafa, I've also had a small bet on Winther. Given he shot the best round of the day today, that he won the Mallorca Open in impressive style as recently as October and that he's within three of the lead, I thought 70.069/1 was too big to ignore.
The second round of The American Express has just begun, and I'll be back in the morning with another look at that event at halfway.
09:45 - January 21, 2021
Patrick Cantlay sits tied for the lead with Lee Hodges at The American Express after both men skipped around La Quinta in 10-under-par and the rest of the field will be relieved that he cooled off at the end of his round!
The world number four was seven-under-par after seven around the week's easiest circuit and having been matched at a low of 2.56/4, he'd reached -10 with still five to play before paring the final five.
The pre-event favourite and world number one, Jon Rahm, also started nicely and he trails the leading pair by four after a six-under-par 66 around La Quinta but like the two in front, Rahm has played the easiest of the three-course played in rotation.
As expected, the Stadium Course, which is played twice by those that make Saturday's cut, averaged the highest (71.27) and there wasn't much to choose between the other two tracks. The Nicklaus Course averaged 69.56 and La Quinta 69.13.
Cantlay an Co may have already played the easiest of the three tracks but they do have what I'd consider to be the easiest draw as they play La Quinta today before playing back-to-back rounds around the Stadium Course over the weekend.
Cantlay and Rahm dominate the market this morning, trading at 3.185/40 and 6.611/2 respectively with K.H Lee next best at 18.017/1. Lee sits tied for third with Cameron Young, who like the leaders played La Quinta yesterday, but Lee played the Stadium Course yesterday and he's off to La Quinta today.
The front two in the market command plenty of respect and should one of them go on to take the title I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised, but I can't help but think they're creating quite a bit of value this morning and I've added two in-play picks to the portfolio.
I was tempted to play last week's runner-up, Russell Henley. His five-under-par opener around the Nicklaus Course was an admirable effort after Sunday's disappointment and at around 46.045/1 he's an enticing price but he plays the Stadium Course today so I'm reluctantly leaving him out for now and backing two that trade at triple-figure prices instead.
There are 39 players within five of the lead after round one and only seven of them began the event at the Stadium Course yesterday.
The aforementioned Lee (-8), Joseph Bramlett (-8), Sam Ryder (-8), Roger Sloan (-6), Martin Trainer (-6), Sepp Straka (-5) and Patton Kizzire (-5) all get to play the two easiest tracks over the next two days (La Quinta today) and so all are worth consideration this morning. The two I like are Kizzire and Trainer.
Given he ranks 102nd for Driving Accuracy after round one, Kizzire's game off the tee appears as inaccurate as ever but this is somewhere that you can get away with a wayward driver to a large extent and given he's no bigger than 66/1 on the High Street, I was happy to take 100.099/1. If he can find a few more fairways and the putter hots up like it so often does, he could be bang there come Sunday.
Martin Trainer is the one I really like at the odds available. He tends to either miss the cut or contend so after his opening round he's very much of interest.
Trainer has missed 19 of his last 21 cuts but he traded at a low of 2.3611/8 in the Houston Open three starts ago before eventually finishing fifth and both his previous wins - at the Price Cutter Charity Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2018 and the Puerto Rico Open on the PGA Tour in 2019 - came out of the blue when he was seemingly out of form.
Trainer's an insultingly big price on the exchange at 380.0379/1 and I was more than happy to back him each-way with five places at 250/1 with the Sportsbook.
As expected, the wind is howling in Abu Dhabi and it's a case of who can hang on the best. We've already seen three rounds of 80 and Denmark's Jeff Winther has just shot the best round of the day so far - a three-under-par 69.
It's really tough out there and the two-time Open winner, Padraig Harrington, and Eric Van Rooyen, who both shot 71, are the only other players to have broken par. I'll be back later with a look at that one at halfway but it's by no means certain we'll get there today. Balls are starting to oscillate on the greens and there's a chance play will be suspended.
If that happens, anyone playing their second rounds now will be hugely advantaged so it's a very tricky tournament to bet on at present.
20:25 - January 20, 2021
Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy dominated the Abu Dhabi Championship market before the off but both have started the event poorly.
Despite the benefit of an early start, when the course was at its easiest with no wind, McIlroy never got going and after a level-par 72 around the Yas Links layout, he's now trailing by nine strokes and trading at around 60.059/1.
Playing in the afternoon, Morikawa started his first round with a birdie three at the opening hole and he was matched at a low of just 5.04/1 but that was as good as it got for the world number two. He missed putt after putt, found water off the tee on the par three eighth, and he looks a lost cause already. He's now trading at around 70.069/1 after a one-over-par 73 sees him trailing by ten.
Play was suspended for the day with a few groups yet to finish their first rounds but looking at the averages for those that have completed their rounds, the morning starters averaged 70.89 and the latter starters 71.48 so there was a slight advantage to beginning the event early.
After a nine-under-par 63, Scotland's Scott Jamieson is the early leader but the man to beat is Norway's Viktor Hovland. Playing in the afternoon alongside Morikawa and the two-time event winner, Tommy Fleetwood, the world number seven raced to five-under-par through eight holes and after playing the next six in level-par, he birdied three of the last four to close to within one of Jamieson.
Hovland is no bigger than 2/1 on the High Street and he's trading at just 3.259/4 on the exchange but that looks short enough given tomorrow's weather forecast.
The wind is expected to pick up dramatically overnight and it's going to be a tough day for everyone.
Hovland is more than capable of surviving the blustery conditions but with 54 holes still to play, odds of around 2/1 look short enough. I'm more than happy to sit on my hands for now and see what tomorrow brings.
The first round of The American Express is underway and it's a completely different story there so far with the two pre-tournament market leaders, Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay, both starting well. At the time of writing the pair are both four-under-par and tied for second.
I'll take a closer look at that event in the morning.
Abu Dhabi Championship Pre-Event Selection:
Collin Morikawa - each-way @ 13/2
In-Play Bets:
Rafa Cabrera-Bello @ 29.028/1
Jeff Winther @ 70.069/1
Viktor Hovland @ 6.86/1
American Express Pre-Event Selection:
Seamus Power @ 44.043/1
In-Play Bets:
Patton Kizzire @ 100.099/1
Martin Trainer @ 380.0379/1 & 250/1 each-way
Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 2 u Rasmus Hojgaard @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 2u Andrew Svensson @ 170.0169/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 2u Phil Mickelson @ 220.0219/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 2 u Michael Thompson @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
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