South African Open: Ferguson fancied at 28/1

• Steve goes in depth on history, course and more

• Lawrence won wire-to-wire in 2022

• Last five winners were South Africans

Tournament History

Established in 1893, the South African Open is the second oldest National Open in the world, with only the Open Championship, which was first staged in 1860, dating back further.

The South African Open has been co-sanctioned between the Sunshine and DP World Tour since 1997, although the 2021 edition was revised as a sole-sanctioned Sunshine Tour event when COVID-19 travel restrictions in the UK from South Africa prevented most DP World Tour players from playing.

Venue

Blair Atholl Golf & Equestrian Estate, Lanseria, Johannesburg, South Africa

Course Details

Par 72, 8, 161 yards

Stroke Average in 2023 - 71.78

Although it's at altitude, so the ball travels around 10% further, at over 8,000 yards, Blair Atholl is a very long golf course. In fact, it's the third longest in the world.

Designed by Gary Player, and situated on his estate, the Blair Atholl has Bentgrass greens and water is in play on 11 holes.

Blair Atholl hosted the South African Open for the first time 12 months ago and it was also used once before on the Sunshine Tour. The venue hosted the Blair Atholl Championship in October 2021 which was won by Luke Brown in 12-under-par.

For more on the course at Blair Atholl, please see the hole-by hole guide here on the course's website.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 10:00 on Thursday

Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Prices

• 2022 - Thriston Lawrence -16 26.025/1
• 2021 - Daniel van Tonder -16 32.031/1
• 2020 - Christiaan Bezuidenhout -18 8.615/2 *
• 2020 - Branden Grace -21 25.024/1 *
• 2018 - Louis Oosthuizen - 12 9.08/1
• 2017- Chris Paisley -21 400.0399/1
• 2017 - Graeme Storm -18 (playoff) 180.0179/1
• 2016- Branden Stone -14 60.059/1

*Two editions staged in 2020

What Will it Take to Win the South African Open?

Given the length of the course, it would be logical to assume that Driving Distance would be the key stat. But some of the holes are so long that even the biggest of big hitters will struggle to reach the greens in two when they're played to their actual yardage and, as always, those will be adjusted this week.

In the two events staged here to date, DD has been a factor given the longest hitter, Chase Hanna, finished tied for fifth alongside notoriously big hitter, dean Burmester, in this event last year. But Thriston Lawrence won the event ranking only 29th and the top three at the Blair Atholl Championship here on the Sunshine Tour in 2021 ranked 49th, 77, and 28th for Driving Distance.

Putting was the most important stat last year with the first four home ranking first, eighth, fourth and third for Putting Average. And in addition to topping the PA rankings, Lawrence also ranked fourth for Strokes Gained: Putting.

Should we plump for last week's contenders?

Given we have back-to-back tournaments in Johannesburg, it would make sense to assume that anyone who contended at Houghton last week might be worth siding with here this week. But this event at this venue followed the Joburg Open at Houghton 12 months ago and the contenders here simply weren't a factor at Houghton.

The winner, Lawrence, had shot 66 in rounds one and four in the Joburg Open but he ended the week in a tie for 33rd. The runner-up Clement Sordet, and the man in third, Jens Fahbring, had both missed the cut in the Joburg, and the man who finished fourth, Matti Schmid, didn't tee it up at Houghton.

Marcel Siem, who won the Dunhill Championship at Houghton way back in 2004, finished tied for fifth here a week after finishing tied for 16th in the Joburg. But that was the best any of the top-eight had fared the week before and none of the top-eight at the Joburg Open contended in this event.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who finished tied for third, and Dale Whitnell, who finished tied sixth in the Joburg, didn't tee it up here the following week. But the Joburg winner, Dan Bradbury, and the runner-up, Sami Valimaki, finished tied for 56th in this event. Daniel van Tonder, who finished tied third, finished 64th, two off the top-six and missed the cut here. JJ Senekal finished tied for 35th.

Although they're in the same vicinity, so travel and acclimatization aren't issues to worry about, they're very different tracks.

Having traded at as low as 1.51/2 at this year's Joburg Open (finished seventh), last year's winner here, Lawrence, has certainly demonstrated that it's possible to play well at both venues but he's a class act and quite possibly an anomaly.

Is There an Angle In?

This is a tournament that has changed quite significantly in recent years. It used to be a highly valued prize for the home contingent and between 2002 and 2011, 10 of the 11 winners were experienced South Africans.

Trevor Immelman, Tim Clark and Retief Goosen have all won the tournament twice recently and Ernie Els has taken the title five times in total. But it's lost some of its gravitas over the last decade or so.

The last five winners have all been well-fancied South Africans but five of the six winners before Louis Oosthuizen in 2019 were from overseas.

In-Play Tactics

Given there's only been two tournaments staged here, we obviously don't have too much to go on.

For what it's worth, the first three home at both this event last year and the Blair Atholl Championship in 2021 were never more than four strokes off the lead after any round and Lawrence won this event wire-to-wire.

I'll be back later today or tomorrow with a look at the market leaders and a summary of any pre-event selections.

Market Leaders

Last week's Joburg Open winner, Dean Burmester, heads the market and rightly so.

He was an impressive and comfortable winner around Houghton Country Club - a venue that wouldn't be as suitable as this one for the big-hitting 34-year-old - and he's a fair price to double up at around 8/19.00.

Burmester finished fifth here 12 months ago, but he was never really in the argument having sat ten off the lead in a tie for 45^th at halfway.

He came into the event in only ordinary form last year too with figures reading MC-4-37-32-MC-54. His fourth place at the Sanderson Farms Championship was very much the highlight so he arrives this year in much better shape.

This isn't the first time he's had the chance to win back-to-back DP World Tour events in the same vicinity as he finished fourth at the Canary Islands Championship one week after winning the Tenerife Open in May 2021. If that's any sort of guide, we can expect a bold showing this week, but it may transpire that he's a better play in-running.

Burmester began the Canary Islands Championship slowly after his win (sat tied 38^th and six off the lead) he started slowly last week (sat tied 19^th and six back) and he opened with rounds of 70 and 71 here 12 months ago.

Thriston Lawrence bids to defend the title but he needs to recover after Sunday's disastrous final round at Houghton where his accurate driving skills deserted him.

Having led by three after 54 holes and having been matched at a low of just 1.51/2, Lawrence shot a dreadfully disappointing five-over-par 75 on Sunday to slip to tied seventh and he needs to bounce back quickly of he's to defend his title.

That's something that hasn't been done since Trevor Immelman won back-to-back at Erinvale in 2003-2004 so he's up against.

Selections

Without having the stress of winning back-to-back or defending the title, Christiaan Bezuidenhout appears to have been slightly overlooked here and I'm happy to back him modestly at 22.021/1.

Despite a reasonable top-10 finish last week at the Joburg Open and an impressive bank of recent form figures in his homeland, Bez has been allowed to drift out to as far as 23.022/1 on the Exchange and that makes no sense to me.

He's playing here for the first time this week but, given his recent form figures in South Africa read an extremely impressive 1-15-1-1-6-5-3-29-9, he looks a very fair price at anything around the 20.019/1 mark.

Bez won the 2020 edition of this event at the Gary Player Country Club and last week's spin around Houghton may just have set him up to take the title for a second time.

I'll have at least one for the Find Me a 100 Winner column, but my only other pre-event pick is Scotland's Ewen Ferguson at 29.028/1.

Since missing the cut at Wentworth, Ferguson has been very consistent, producing form figures reading 10-54-9-13-16-20-9 and he's highly likely to contend again here.

He's playing the venue for the first time. He's better known for his accurate tee game than his power but he's a class act who won twice on the DP World Tour last year.

Read Hero World Challenge 2023: Course and current form stats

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter