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Hot putting the key to success at Waialae
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Look to Mexico for correlating course clues
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Sentry starters command plenty of respect
Tournament History
The Sony Open dates all the way back to the 1920s and it's been a regular on the PGA Tour since 1965.
It's the first full field event of 2023 and for those that weren't involved in the two recent limited field events - the Hero World Challenge in December and last week's Sentry Tournament of Champions - it's the first chance of tournament action since the RSM Classic back in November.
Venue
Waialae Country Club, Honolulu, Hawaii
Course Details
Par 70, 7,044 yards
Stroke index in 2022 - 68.00
Designed by Seth Raynor, Waialae is a short, tree-lined, wind-affected course with small Bermuda Greens. Water is in play on just three holes and the greens usually run at around 11 on the stimpmeter.
There were a couple of changes to the course prior to the 2019 renewal. A fairway bunker was removed on the 10th and the green was doubled in size, and the par five finishing hole had its green increased in size by approximately 33%.
As you'll see below, with the list of winners, scores can vary quite considerably depending on how penal the rough is and more importantly, how strong the wind blows.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, beginning at 17:00 on Thursday
Last Seven Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2022 - Hideki Matsuyama -23 21.020/1 (playoff)
2021 - Kevin Na -21 120.0119/1
2020 - Cameron Smith -11 65.064/1 (playoff)
2019 - Matt Kuchar -22 48.047/1
2018 - Patton Kizzire -17 85.084/1 (playoff)
2017 - Justin Thomas -27 17.016/1
2016 - Fabian Gomez -20 110.0109/1
What Will it Take to Win the Sony Open?
When Matt Kuchar won here three years ago, he ranked fourth for Driving Accuracy and it was interesting to hear how important he thought it was to be straight off the tee when comparing this course to El Camaleón (more on that below).
"Both courses are very tight, very demanding driving golf courses. That would probably be the biggest similarity."
With the rough set at three inches instead of the usual two, the first four home 12 months ago ranked tied 13th, sixth, ninth and tied 13th for DA, suggesting Kuchar was on to something, and I'd definitely favour accuracy over length, but the stats don't really back up the straight of the tee theory too strongly.
The 2021 winner, Kevin Na, only ranked 49th for Driving Accuracy, the 2020 champ, Cam Smith, ranked only 41st, the 2018 winner, Patton Kizzire, ranked 56th and Justin Thomas broke the PGA Tour's 72-hole scoring record when he won here six years ago ranking only 60th for DA so more often than not, being arrow-straight is clearly not that vital.
Power is certainly not an important prerequisite either. Last year's winner, Hideki Matsuyama, ranked 22nd for Driving Distance, Na ranked only 64th, and many a short hitter has prospered here. Waialae is one of the few traditional old courses on the PGA Tour where length is simply not required so the driving stats can be largely ignored.
As well as being straight off the tee, Kuchar also ranked first for Greens In Regulation in 2019 and he was the 17th winner in 18 years to rank inside the top-12 for GIR but something's changed recently.
The 2018 winner, Kizzire, only ranked 23rd for GIR and the last three victors have ranked 20th, 26th and 36th. A strong putting performance is now the key to victory at Waialae...
The playoff protagonists last year ranked third and first for Putting Average and first and third for Strokes Gained Putting and the previous five winners have had a PA ranking of sixth, second, fifth, second and first. Na only ranked 22nd for Strokes Gained Putting in 2021 but Matsuyama ranked number one 12 months ago and the four winners before Na ranked first, third, third and second.
Nobody bettered the 12-under-par that Hideki played the par fours in 12 months ago and the last six winners have all ranked inside the top six for Par 4 Scoring.
Is There an Angle In?
As many as six players this century have won both this event and last week's Sentry Tournament of Champions and a number of other of venues on the PGA Tour correlate nicely with Waialae too.
The Seaside Course in Sea Island, Georgia, which hosts the RSM Classic, Harbour Town Links in South Carolina, home of the RBC Heritage, and El Camaleon, the venue for the World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico, are all short seaside tracks with tricky, grainy greens and I'd also consider both TPC Southwind and Colonial Country Club, venue of the Charles Schwab Challenge, as similar types of test. The first and second here in 2021, Na and Chris Kirk, have both won at Colonial.
A number of players have won either this event or the now defunct St. Jude Classic at TPC Southwind and finished runner-up at the other event, and both Fabian Gomez and David Toms have won both tournaments fairly recently but form at El Camaleon - home of the World Wide Technology Championship - needs the closest inspection.
The first and second in Mexico seven years ago, Pat Perez and Gary Woodland, have both been placed here before and even though the World Wide Technology Championship has only been staged 16 times in total, we've already seen five players win both events, and at a very big prices here (Kuchar, Kizzire, Russel Henley, Mark Wilson and Johnson Wagner). And it could have easily been six...
The 2013 World Wide Technology Championship winner, Harris English, has a good record here. He finished third in 2015 and fourth in 2014, having traded at a low of 1.674/6, and English is also another former winner of the St. Jude Classic.
Zach Johnson is one of the six players to have recently won this event and last week's Sentry Tournament of Champions and that's always a good place to start. Back in 2015, Zach offered some insight as to why TOC winners do well here when he said that although the tracks are very different in style, the winds are very similar, and he felt they played alike as a result.
Along with the trade winds, another similarity between the two venues is the green speeds. Kapalua's greens are huge and undulating whereas the ones here are small and flat but both sets of greens run slowly in comparison to most PGA Tour venues.
The similar greens' speed, being familiar with the trade winds and enjoying the advantage of a very recent outing all go a long way to explain why those that played the week before at Kapalua have such a strong record here.
As many as 17 of the last 24 Sony Open winners, and eight of the last nine, have played the Sentry Tournament of Champions the week before they won here and it's worth bearing in mind that in the events staged between 2012 and 2015, the Sentry TOC finished on either a Monday or a Tuesday, which was quite a disadvantage - especially in 2013 when Russell Henley won here (hadn't played in the TOC). Bad weather meant the event was reduced to three rounds and it didn't finish until the Tuesday! That may explain why Kuchar was the only player that played in the TOC to finish inside the top-seven here that year.
Na, Kuchar, Kizzire and Gomez, who all played in the Sentry TOC, were all big outsiders when they won here so an appearance last week is the clearest pointer we have and they don't have to have played brilliantly either.
Gomez had finished sixth in the Sentry before winning here in 2016 and Justin Thomas won both events in consecutive weeks, but Matsuyama had finished 13th in the Sentry last year, prior to their successes here, Na had finished 38th, Kuchar 19th, and Kizzire 15th.
A recent win looks a good pointer given five of the last eight winners had won earlier in the wraparound season and historically, this has been an excellent event for big-priced winners, but previous course experience has still been almost essential - a bad omen for the well-fancied Tom Kim.
Kizzire, who missed the cut in his only previous visit (in 2016) and last year's beaten playoff protagonist, Henley, who won here ten years ago in his first PGA Tour event, are the only winners since 1996 not to have played Waialae Country Club at least twice previously and Henley was the first winner in his 20s here since Paul Stankowski way back in 1997 so look to the more experienced stars.
Course experience looks important, but strong course form isn't vital.
In addition to Kizzire, who had that single MC prior to winning, Gomez's course form figures read MC-67-MC prior to his 2016 victory and when Jimmy Walker took the title the first time, in 2014, his figures read MC-61-32-MC-4-MC-26. Smith had somewhat modest course form figures in 2020, reading MC-27-18-22 and when Johnson Wagner took the title in 2012, his previous course form numbers read 34-MC-MC-MC-MC.
And prior to his victory 12 months ago, Matsuyama's course form figures read MC-MC-MC-MC-27-51-12-19.
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2022 - Hideki Matsuyama solo 2nd - trailing by two 3.55/2
2021 - Kevin Na tied second - trailing by two 8.27/1
2020 - Cameron Smith solo 2nd - trailing by three 5.49/2
2019 - Matt Kuchar led by two strokes 1.684/6
2018 - Patton Kizzire T2nd - trailing by one 5.14/1
2017 - Justin Thomas led by seven strokes 1.141/7
2016 - Fabian Gomez solo 5th - trailing by four 55.054/1
In-Play Tactics
The last three winners have trailed by five strokes after the opening round but we've seen five players win here wire-to-wire this century, so frontrunners have a decent record.
In addition, Brandt Snedeker was beaten in extra time seven years ago, after leading through rounds one, two and three, Russell Henley won from the front, having sat second after round one, and Kuchar sat third and two off the lead after round one before leading after rounds two and three. History suggests it's hard to win here from off the pace here but it's certainly not impossible...
Fabian Gomez edged out Snedeker in 2016 and his victory went against the in-running trends. He was tied for 68th, six off the lead, and matched at 900.0899/1 after round one, and he was still five back at halfway. He sat fifth after three rounds but he was still four adrift and he's one of just five players in 54 years to win from that many strokes adrift through 54 holes.
Gomez shot an eight-under-par 62 to catch Snedeker and we very nearly witnessed an even more remarkable comeback win in 2018 when James Hahn, who was 14th and seven back with a round to go, also shot 62 to catch Kizzire before losing a playoff at the sixth extra hole.
It's clearly possible to win from off the pace but it's highly unlikely and Johnson Wagner, who sat tied 30th and five back after round one in 2012, is the only other winner this century (other than Matsuyama, Na, Smith, and Gomez) not to be within four strokes of the lead after the opening round. With low scores so prevalent (Justin Thomas shot 59 in round one six years ago) making up ground here is tough.
Although being up with the pace looks very important, it's not easy to convert from the front if the last few years are anything to go by.
As many as four of the last five 54-hole leaders have been beaten and the last three absolutely threw the title away.
A year after Brendan Steele was matched at just 1.111/9 in-running before getting beat by Smith in extra time in 2020, he was matched at a low of 1.374/11 before getting caught and passed by Na in 2021 and after having led by five with just nine to play last year, Henley was matched at just 1.061/18 in-running!
The leaders go out very late UK time on Sunday but placing a cheeky lay bet at skinny odds on the 54-hole leader may just provide a pleasant surprise on Monday morning for those not intending to stop up late into the early hours.
Market Leaders
After just 19 starts on the PGA Tour, 20-year-old Korean, Tom Kim, has already reached 14th place in the Official World Rankings and he's already tasted victory in the States twice.
He won the Wyndham Championship in August by five strokes, despite beginning the tournament with a quadruple-bogey eight, and he followed that with a three-stroke win in the Shriners Hospitals Open two months later.
He picked up where he left off last week with a very decent fifth in the Sentry Tournament of Champions so it's no surprise to see him heading the market here, but can he defy the stats?
Every course encountered is new for Kim and that hasn't stopped him winning two of his last seven events, but history tells us he'll be up against it here. Since Gay Brewer prevailed in the inaugural edition way back in 1965, Russell Henley, ten years ago, is the only debutant to take the title and that's seriously off-putting given he's no bigger than 12/1.
Fellow Korean, Sungjae Im, who finished second to Kim in the Wyndham, finished 13th last week, despite putting poorly, and that may explain his regressive course form figures reading 16-21-56-MC.
Im putted quite nicely in the late summer but he ranked 31st of 39 for Putting Average and 21st for Strokes Gained Putting last week and that's not going to cut it here.
Jordan Spieth, who has a mixed set of results here reading MC-3-18-MC, has won at both Hilton Head and Colonial so he's won at two courses that correlate nicely but just like Im, he's struggled a bit with the flatstick last week and that's a big negative.
Sitting fourth and just two off the lead at halfway, Spieth looked poised to challenge over the weekend last week in the Sentry TOC but rounds of 71-69 saw him slip to 13th and I'm happy to swerve him.
The defending champ, Hideki Matsuyama, commands plenty of respect. Hubert Green, Corey Pavin, Ernie Els and Jimmy Walker have all successfully defended the title in the last 43 years.
His 21st at the Sentry is nothing to write home about but he putted nicely (ranked eighth for PA and seventh for SGP) and a big improvement on that pipe-opener is perfectly plausible.
Given he finished third at TPC Southwind in August and second at both El Camaleon and the Seaside Course in November, it's no surprise to see there's been money for Brain Harmon, who was fourth here back in 2018, but he's not for me at just a shade over 20/1.
That fourth is Harmon's only top-12 finish in 11 starts here, he didn't putt brilliantly last week when finishing 16th (ranked 19th for PA and 22nd for SGP), and over more than ten years he's won just two of his 305 starts on the PGA Tour.
Selections
I've backed three triple-figure outsiders which I'll highlight in the Find Me a 100 Winner column later and two players trading at over 50.049/1, starting with one that has a surprisingly poor record at Waialae - J.J Spaun.
Spaun has course form figures reading MC-47-MC-MC-MC, which is quite startling given he has form at so many correlating courses.
Last year's Texas Open winner was sixth at Hilton Head and second at the Seaside Course in 2017, third at El Camaleon in 2018 and he led at TPC Southwind in August through three rounds before tumbling down the leaderboard with a 78 on Sunday.
He really caught the eye last week in the Sentry TOC where he finished fifth, ranking fifth for SGP, and given he's recently tasted victory on the PGA Tour, 55.054/1 is a fair price.
The recent Sanderson Farms Championship winner, Mackenzie Hughes, has only ordinary course numbers that read 27-MC-MC-MC-19 and his 21st last week was slightly disappointing given he opened with a 66 and closed with 65 but there was enough there to suggest he can contend this week.
He ticks the already won this season box, has also won around the Seaside Course and he ranked 10th for Putting Average last week. I thought 75.074/1 was more than reasonable.
Selections:
J.J Spaun @ 55.054/1
Mackenzie Hughes @ 75.074/1
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter