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Ras Al Khaimah Championship starts Thursday
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Bigger priced golfers have thrived in this tournament
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Read my Farmers Insurance Open preview here
Tournament History
After Tommy Fleetwood's victory at the inaugural Dubai Invitational, and Rory McIlroy's fourth win at the Dubai Desert Classic - the DP World Tour remains in the Middle East for the third edition of the Ras al Khaimah Championship.
Venue
Al Hamra Golf Course, Ras Al Khaimah, UAE
Course Details
Par 72, 7400 yards
Stroke Average in 2023 - 71.1
Designed by Peter Harradine, the Al Hamra Golf Course was new to the DP World Tour two years ago, but it was used three times on the Challenge Tour between 2016 and 2018.
Al Hamra was the venue for the twice only staged Ras Al Khaimah Golf Challenge in 2016 and 2017 and it also hosted the Challenge Tour Grand Final in 2018.
Jordan Smith beat Jose-Filipe Lima by a stroke with a 20-under-par total here in 2016 before Sweden's Jens Dantorp got the better of Poland's Adrian Meronk in extra time 12 months later, after the pair had finished on -15 in the second and final edition of the Ras Al Khaimah Golf Challenge.
And at the 2018 edition of the Challenge Tour Grand Final, Adri Arnaus shot 17-under-par to finish the week a stroke in front of Victor Perez.
This is only the third edition of the Ras al Khaimah Championship, but it will be the fourth time this venue has been used on the DP world Tour in three years.
A week after the inaugural edition of this event two years ago- won by Nicolai Hojgaard - Ryan Fox won the only edition of the Ras al Khaimah Classic.
Al Hamra is a typical desert track with wide fairways, water is in play on eight holes and the greens are Sea Isle Paspalum.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 8:00 on Thursday
Three Course Winners with Pre-event Prices
- 2023 - Daniel Gavins -17 430.0429/1
- 2022 - Nicolai Hojgaard -24 40.039/1
- 2022 - Ryan Fox -22 55.054/1 (Ras al Khaimah Classic)
What Will it Take to Win the Ras al Khaimah?
Both the 2022 course winners, Nicolai Hojgaard and Ryan Fox, overpowered Al Hamra and their stats were very similar - although they played the par fours and fives very differently...
Hojgaard was able to drive three of the par four greens (the first, the fifth and the 13th) and he could also reach the four par fives in two which is why he was able to play the long holes in 15-under-par. Only Sean Norris (-12) got anywhere near to that and nobody else in the field bettered -10.
As many as four players played the long holes in -13 the following week but Fox constructed his score on the par fours. He played the par fives in only seven-under-par, but he played the par fours in 14-under and that was six better than anyone else in the field that week!
Last year's winner, Daniel Gavins, played the par fives in 11-under-par and nobody played them better, but he certainly didn't overpower the course. Gavins ranked only 55th for Driving Distance and that was significantly worse than the two 2022 course winners.
Hojgaard ranked third for DD and Fox ranked ninth but neither man was especially straight off the tee. Hojgaard ranked 72nd and Fox 60th for Driving Accuracy.
Gavins only ranked 64th for DA so all things considered, power over accuracy off the tee is the way to go.
Gavins only ranked 49th for Greens In Regulation whereas Hojgaard and Fox ranked sixth and seventh, so missing fairways didn't result in many missed greens in 2022.
Hojgaard and Fox both ranked second for Strokes Gained: Approach and they ranked first and second for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, whereas Gavins only ranked 20th and 27th for those two metrics.
Fox putted better than Hojgaard, ranking fourth for Putting Average and seventh for Strokes Gained: Putting, compared to the Dane's 12th and 43rd but it was the flatstick that was key to Gavins' win. He ranked first for PA, Putts Per Round and SG: Putting so it was apt that he sealed the deal with a 28-footer on the 72nd hole, after finding the water twice on the hole!
Is There an Angle In?
Although Gavins had missed the cut on his only previous visit to Al Hamra, Zander Lombard, who finished tied for second, had finished third in the Ras al Khaimah Classic behind Fox and Adrian Meronk now has course form figures reading 2-57-6-4 after he was beaten by two strokes by Gavins.
The course was only used three times in total on the Challenge Tour, but course form held up nicely on that Tour too.
Victor Perez finished seventh and second here, Jose Filipe Lima was sixth and second, Max Orrin seventh and sixth, and Jack Senior finished 11th and sixth. Romain Langasque finished sixth in 2016 and fourth two years later but he seems to have forgotten how to play the course as he's missed his last three cuts on the DP World Tour.
There isn't an abundance of evidence to suggest that form at other Harradine-designed tracks is going to be worth exploring in detail just yet but for the record, he was also responsible for Abu Dhabi Golf Club - which hosted the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship until 2023 - and Doda Country Club, which hosts the Qatar Masters.
In addition to form at Doha and the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, I'd also closely consider any form at the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course, which used to host the Portugal Masters.
Like Al Hamra, Doha and Abu Dhabi Golf Club, Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course is an exposed and wind-affected track so it's no surprise to see that form has crossed over between this venue and Dom Pedro Victoria.
Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four
- 2023 - Daniel Gavins - solo third - trailing by two 11.010/1
- 2022 - Nicolai Hojgaard - leading by three 1.564/7
- 2021 - Ryan Fox - leading by six 1.422/5
In-Play Tactics
As long as it's not too windy, up with the pace is usually the place to be in the desert and that's been the case in the last four events here.
Ryan Fox and Adri Arnaus both won wire-to wire and Hojgaard and Gavins were in the van throughout. Gavins sat tied for 11th and four off the lead but he trailed by one at halfway and by two through 54 holes and Hojgaard trailed by only two strokes after rounds one and two and he was three in front with a round to go.
The back nine is significantly harder than the front nine and it's particularly tricky around the turn. The hardest two holes on the course at the last three events here have been the 12th and the 10th and the six hardest holes are all encountered after the par five 8th.
Market Leaders
In contrast to the PGA Tour, where we've witnessed three longshots winning the first three tournaments of 2024 (and the last two were matched at 1000.0999/1 before the off), the 2023/24 DP World Tour season is now eight events in, and we haven't seen a winner even remotely approaching a three-figure price.
The pre-event second favourite, Tommy Fleetwood, won the first event of the year - the inaugural Dubai Invitational - and Rory McIlroy won his fourth Dubai Desert Classic on Sunday, having gone off at around 3/14.00, so if that trend is going to continue, we need to be scrutinising the market leaders closely, starting with the favourite, Rasmus Hojgaard.
After back-to-back 11th placed finishes in Dubai, Rasmus arrives in good heart and the fact that he's attempting to put his name on a trophy that already has his twin brother's name on it, should add some impetus to his challenge.
Like most of the star names that have played on the DP World Tour in Dubai over the last fortnight, Nicolai is missing form the field here and this isn't anywhere near as strong an event as the first two played, which will explain why the Dane is only trading at around the 12.011/1 mark.
Rasmus' length will be an advantage around Al Hamra, his wayward driving shouldn't be too much of an issue either and so far this year, he's been putting nicely so with course form figures reading an improving 42-30-6, I wouldn't want to put anyone off him.
Fellow Dane, Thorbjorn Olesen, also commands plenty of respect now he appears to have got to grips with the venue.
The seven-time DP World Tour winner missed his first two cuts here but after shooting 72 in round one last year, he fired rounds of 68, 66 and 67 to finish fourth.
He was slightly disappointing on Sunday in Dubai last week, shooting a two-over-par 75 to slip out of the top-20, having sat tied for seventh with a round to go, but I may be being harsh. He had next to no chance of winning so may just have switched off a bit.
Jordan Smith finished first and second here on his two previous visits, before finishing only 72nd last year, so he clearly likes the layout but he's very frustrating in-contention and others are preferred after his 41st placed finish last week.
After his tied second alongside Rory behind Fleetwood two weeks ago, we can probably forgive Thriston Lawrence his missed cut last week, especially given he's never played well at the Emirates, but he's never played well here either, so that's a big concern.
With course form figures reading MC-53-20-42, he's perhaps one to keep an eye on in-running instead.
Selections
Another week on and yet again I'm in complete agreement with Matt Cooper and my only two pre-event picks are two of his three each-way selections - Pablo Larrazabal and Callum Shinkwin.
As Matt points out, Pablo has often telegraphed his numerous successes, so I'm completely baffled as to why he's been allowed to drift out to 65.064/1 following his excellent fourth last week in Dubai.
His Abu Dhabi Championship win almost exactly ten years ago came at one of the few Harradine designed tracks we encounter, he has form in Doha (also Harradine), and he's also played nicely at the Portugal Masters, an event that correlates nicely with this one, so it's no surprise to see he was third here in the Ras al Khaimah Classic two years ago.
Pablo is in search of his fifth DP World Tour title in his last 45 starts, he's just turned 40, and he's expecting his first child.
So, we've got a prolific winner with course form, current form, correlating course form, two inspiring major lifetime events, both recent and future, and he's available at 60.059/1. Win or lose that's miles out for me and if you're laying him at that price, good luck. You might need it!
I had Callum Shinkwin in mind for this event as soon as I saw he was in good heart last week, where he finished 11th.
Shinkwin was a fancy last year at 36.035/1 before he withdrew after three rounds after a very nice bogey-free 67 to start the tournament. As highlighted below, I took the 100/1101.00 on the Sportsbook yesterday but he's still a reasonable price at 66/167.00 and he's bigger on the exchange.