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Links lovers excel at Doha
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Form at the Earth Course a big plus
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Read my Phoenix Open preview here
Qatar Masters Tournament History
Sky Sports pundit, Andrew Coltart, won the first edition of the Qatar Masters back in 1998 so this will be the 29th edition.
The tournament was staged at Education City in both 2020 and 2021, but we're back to the event's original venue- Doha Golf Club - for the fifth year in-a-row.
The Qatar Masters is the fourth event in-a-row in the Middle East before the DP World Tour takes a week off ahead of the Kenya Open at Karen Country Club.
Venue
Doha Golf Club, Doha, Qatar.
Course Details
Par 72, 7,508 yards
Stroke Average in 2025 - 72.19
The Peter Harradine-designed Doha Country Club opened in 1997.
In between the 2019 and 2022 editions the course was revamped and there were two significant changes.
The ninth and 18th greens (both par fives) were combined to form one big green, and although the fairways and rough are still Bermuda, all the greens were changed from Bermuda to a strain of paspalum called dynasty grass.
Gary McGlinchey, the General Manager of Doha Golf Club had this to say prior to the changes being made. "The greens were constructed in 1996, grass technology has come a long way since then and the paspalum dynasty grass we have selected doesn't mind the TSE water we are now forced to use."
In addition to the grass type changing on the putting surfaces, most of the greens were expanded back to their original size and reinstated back to their original slopes and elevations. And there were further tweaks to the layout before last year's edition too...
Fairway lines and contours were reshaped on every hole, with green surrounds also extended on several holes on the front nine to allow for run off areas.
Modifications included the left green-side bunker at the second moved eight metres closer to the putting surface, the removal of trees down the left side of the seventh and near the 11th green, along with the planting of palm trees on the ninth, 13th and 18th.
Other moves included a new championship tee at the fourth, making the fairway narrower on the par-four sixth and par-five ninth, and the landing zone was made tighter on the par five 10th. The fairway and lay-up zones were also made narrower on the 18th.
Both nines open and close with par fives and water is in-play on six holes (3, 8, 9, 13, 15 and 18).
The four par fives usually average below par (although the ninth averaged 5.02 last year) but the drivable par four 16th, which averaged just 3.58 last year, is the best opportunity to score.
The course is very exposed, and high winds can have a big say on the outcome so keeping an eye on the weather forecasts is essential.
Blustery conditions caused chaos over the weekend in 2022 with as many as five players trading at 2.89/5 or below, although the winner, Ewen Ferguson, was the only man to go odds-on.
In addition to this event, Doha also staged the International Series Qatar on the Asian Tour in 2023 and 2024.
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 9:00 on Thursday in the UK.
Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2025 - Haotong Li -16 65.064/1
2024 - Rikuya Hoshino -14 55.054/1
2023 - Sami Valimaki -18 85.084/1
2022 - Ewen Ferguson -7 300.0299/1
2021 - Antoine Rosner -8 30.029/1 (Education City)
2020 - Jorge Campillo -13 200.0199/1 (playoff- Education City)
2019 - Justin Harding -13 60.059/1
2018 - Eddie Pepperell -18 85.084/1
2017 - Jeunghun Wang -16 40.039/1 (playoff)
2016 - Branden Grace -14 8.415/2
What Will it Take to Win the Qatar Masters?
We witnessed four course winners in-a-row - Ewen Ferguson, Justin Harding, Eddie Pepperell and Jeunghun Wang - rank only 46th, 31st, 77th and 37th for Driving Distance and the 2024 winner, Rikuya Hoshino, ranked only 33rd, but I'd definitely favour length over accuracy off the tee.
Last year's winner, Haotong Li, ranked sixth for DD, the 2023 winner, Sami Valimaki, ranked seventh, and 11 of the 12 winners before Wang in 2017 ranked inside the top 15 for that stat.
Pepperell ranked third for Driving Accuracy seven years ago but that's an anomaly given the previous four winners had ranked 54th, 61st, 44th and 40th and the last five winners have ranked only 38th, 17th, 21st, 33rd and 53rd.
The last eight Qatar Masters winners at Doha have ranked 18th, 16th, third, 14th, 45th, 16th, 26th and 19th for Greens In Regulation so it's not quite the key stat it once was given the prior to the last eight renewals here, nine of the ten winners had ranked inside the top seven for GIR.
As many as 11 of the last 15 winners have ranked inside the top-ten for Putts per GIR and the odd four out - Valimaki in 2023, Ferguson in 2022, Wang in 2017 and Sergio Garcia in 2014 - only ranked 22nd, 16th, 15th, and 18th so a solid week with the putter is key.
We only have five years' worth of Strokes Gained data at Doha but for what it's worth, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green looks to be the most important stat.
The first four home last year ranked second, first, third and fourth and first three home in 2024 ranked 12th, fourth and sixth. The playoff protagonists in 2023 ranked second and fifth and although Ferguson only ranked 18th in 2022 the next three on the leaderboard ranked fourth, eighth and ninth. Marcus Armitage, who finished tied for fifth behind Ferguson, topped the SG: Tee-to-Green rankings and the 2019 winner, Justin Harding, ranked third for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Doha is very exposed, so excellent wind exponents tend to fare well here year after year.
Is There an Angle In?
A large bank of course form is far from imperative at Doha.
When Eddie Pepperell won here in 2018, he had previous course form figures reading MC-63-4-MC, so he had some mixed experience and one very good performance in the bag.
Last year's winner, Li, had played here only twice previously, missing the cut on debut in 2017, before he finished 16th in 2024.
The two winners before Li had played here only once previously and the three before them had never played Doha before.
Hoshino finished 36th on debut in 2023 and Valimaki had finished only 40th on his only previous visit so I certainly wouldn't put anyone off backing a course debutant or someone with very little course form.
Jayden Schaper finished fifth 12 months ago, and South Africans have a good record at Doha. When Harding won here in 2019, he became the fifth South African to win the Qatar Masters and three South Africans - George Coetzee, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Erik Van Rooyen - finished tied for second.
Peter Uihlein won the International Series Qatar here in 2024 but he was chased home by Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen and Dean Burmester finished tied for fifth.
Debutants and South Africans are clearly worth considering and so too are former winners.
When Branden Grace successfully defended in 2016, he became the third to win the title twice in its short history and we could very easily have seen a few more two-time winners...
In addition to Grace's back-to-back wins, Paul Lawrie won the event in both 1999 and 2012, and Adam Scott has also taken the title twice - in 2002 and 2008. Henrik Stenson won the event in 2006, and he's also been second three times, the 2020 winner, Campillo, hit a low of 1.330/100 in 2023, and Alvaro Quiros is a two-time runner-up as well as a winner here. Robert Karlsson has a first and second to his name and Sergio Garcia finished second eight years ago before he took the title 12 months later.
Links Lovers Excel at Doha
Doha winners, Henrik Stenson, Ernie Els and Paul Lawrie have all won the Open Championship and Sergio Garcia, Thomas Bjorn and Adam Scott arguably all should have done.
Given he shot the first 62 in major championship history at the Open at this year's venue, Royal Birkdale, in 2017, Grace boosts the links angle-in too and so does the 2016 second, Thorbjorn Olesen, the 2015 runner-up, Marc Warren, and the 2018 winner, Pepperell.
Grace has also won at the Fancourt Links in South Africa and like past Qatar Masters winners, Lawrie and Robert Karlsson, Grace and Thorbjorn Olesen are both former winners of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Grace and Warren have also both lost a playoff at the Scottish Open at the Castle Stuart Links and Pepperell was denied only by a ridiculous 60 in round four of the 2018 Scottish Open at the Gullane Links by South Africa's Brandon Stone.
Many fine links exponents have performed well here, and I suspect it's the wide-open feel of the course and the fact that the wind often blows - mirroring the sort of conditions encountered on the links.
Look to the Emirates and the Earth Course for clues
Following Li's victory 12 months ago, we've now seen five men win at Doha and the Emirates in Dubai.
Sergio Garcia, Alvaro Quiros, Henrik Stenson and Ernie Els have also won both this event here and the Dubai Desert Classic at the Emirates, and Quiros and Stenson have also won at the Earth Course, the home of the DP World Tour Championship.
Li finished eighth in the DP World Tour Championship in November after a very slow start and although the 2023 winner, Hoshino, finished only tied 28th in 2023, he sat tied for fourth after round one. And the two winners before Hoshino both have form around the Earth Course.
Valimaki has finished inside the top five there and Ferguson, has finished inside the top ten so those two desert layouts appear to correlate the best with this one.
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2025 - Haotong Li - led by two 1.981/1
2024 - Rikuya Hoshino - tied for the lead 5.95/1
2023 - Sami Valimaki led by a stroke 3.002/1
2022 - Ewen Ferguson - tied 7th - trailing by three 38.037/1
2021 - Antoine Rozner tied 4th - trailing by three 7.26/1 (Ed' City)
2020 - Jorge Campillo led by a stroke 3.3512/5 (Ed' City)
2019 - Justin Harding tied 10th - trailing by three 38.037/1
2018 - Eddie Pepperell tied for the lead with Oliver Fisher 3.1511/5
2017 - Jeunghun Wang led by three strokes 1.9310/11
2016 - Branden Grace tied 2nd - trailing by two 3.7511/4
In-Play Tactics
With windy weather so often a factor, a slow start can be overcome at Doha.
The 2017 winner, Wang, trailed by five after round one and four of the 25 course winners to date have been as far as seven off the lead after the opening round. And three winners, Ernie Els in 2005, Adam Scott in 2008 and Sergio Garcia in 2014, were seven back at halfway.
Els was still five back with a round to go and Scott and Garcia still trailed by three, as did Harding in 2019 and Ferguson in 2022, but every other winner has been within two strokes with a round to go and 16 of the 26 winners were in front after three rounds.
If you're betting in-running, bear in mind that the 12th, 13th and 15th holes are all tricky but after that the players face the drivable par four at 16, the 17th, which is by far the easiest of the four par threes, and the 18th, which is a reachable par five which has averaged between 4.75 and 4.8 in each of the last four editions.
Chris Wood won the event with an eagle at the 72nd hole 13 years ago, Grace eagled the 16th on his way to winning a decade ago and Ferguson, who was matched at a whopping 880.0879/1 in-running in 2022, despite never trailing by any more than three strokes in-between rounds, eagled 16 before birdying the last to win by a stroke.
Denmark's Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, who had been a 22/123.00 chance with 18 to play, pushed Li hard in round four last year, and he was matched at a low of 1.654/6 in-running on his way to posting a seven-under-par 65, but after a simple birdie three at 16, after he'd driven the green, and a par at 17, Li sealed the deal in style with this birdie at the 72nd hole.
Qatar Masters Selections: Reed can win again
Having drifted out to 18.535/2, Patrick Reed has tightened up fractionally in the Betfair Exchange market but he's still a very fair price at around 17.016/1.
The 35-year-old American started last week's Bahrain Championship slowly, sitting tied for 58th and six off the lead after shooting 71 on Thursday afternoon and he trailed by 10 strokes at halfway, despite shooting a five-under-par 67 on Friday morning.
Matched at as high as 100.099/1, it looked highly unlikely that the Texan would be able to go back-to-back after his impressive four-stroke victory in the Dubai Desert Classic at the Emirates the week before, but he gave it a good go.
Reed climbed up into a tie for third with a 66 on Saturday and after a 67 on Sunday, he was matched at a low of 1.728/11 before being eliminated at the first hole of the playoff when he hit the lip of a fairway bunker.
There are numerous examples of Reed holding his form for several weeks in-a-row, most notably when he won the US Masters in 2018 after a run of decent results, and he'll be very happy with the draw this week.
Reed played the first three rounds of last week's event with Martin Couvra so he'll enjoy the familiarity this week and an early start on day one may prove a plus too.
As highlighted above, very little course form is often a positive here so the fact that Reed finished 13th in the International Series Qatar two years ago on his one and only appearance to date bodes well.
Reed, who also has a second and a third at the Earth Course, is bidding to become the sixth man to win at both Doha and the Emirates, and he has brilliant numbers in the key stat, SG: Tee-to-Green, too, having ranked 19th, first and fourth in each of his last three events.
He's the man to beat and should be at the head of the market.
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